New 0Z ETA BRINGS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO UPPER TX COAST IN 84 HR

[TexWx]

21 & 94

[Sanibel]

There's a rapidly spinning rotation under the convection near 21N-92.6W. I don't know the level, but if it's surface we could have a rapid-former. There's so many crossing winds in that area it could be a vortex at a synoptic crossroads (convergence).

Also of note is a faint spiral at 19N-96W just offshore. Could also be vortex. If surface feature note that it is moving E! (I think it is a vortex)

?

[HouTXmetro]

I think I see it... looking better by the hour. Not saying it's going to develop, but an impressive blob.

[Sanibel]

If there is anything there it will refire. Otherwise it was just a blow-up with vortex's from crosswinds.

[skysummit]

In this image, I circled an area of broken clouds. In this area, I was able to see the lower cloud deck and able to tell the the motion was from north to south. Is it possible a low level circulation is trying to develop under the convection? I believe so, but I'm not entirely sure yet. Again....the circled area is NOT what I'd be saying is the center, it's just the area of broken clouds I wanted to highlight.

[wjs3]

Hey, I have to argue with that idea of a low pressure...I certainly see the flow from the south as you do, but can't see anythign to convince me that a low is closing off there.

There's a buoy close to where you guys are calling the "center"...42055...222 N 94 W--is showing a pressure rise (check out the last 24 hours on this plot).

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

Sorry...but I don't think we're looking at any kind of LLC yet. Seems to me we'd see pressure falls if low pressure were forming.


Your thoughts?


WJS3

[skysummit]

Hey, I have to argue with that idea of a low pressure...I certainly see the flow from the south as you do, but can't see anythign to convince me that a low is closing off there.

There's a buoy close to where you guys are calling the "center"...42055...222 N 94 W--is showing a pressure rise (check out the last 24 hours on this plot).

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

Sorry...but I don't think we're looking at any kind of LLC yet. Seems to me we'd see pressure falls if low pressure were forming.


Your thoughts?


WJS3

Yea, I don't believe there's an actual LLC forming yet either, maybe just the very early beginning stages of hinting at one. I did study the buoys...well, actually the only that's fairly close by, and it doesn't support anything at the surface. So, my theory was just based on what I can see on visible, and that's it.

[wjs3]

Was there a recent quickscat pass that might help us? I don;t have time to check right now...

[vaffie]

Part of Brownsville forecast discussion

.MARINE...OFFSHORE BUOY 20 AT 7 AM REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 2 FEET AND A 4 SECOND PERIOD. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN LIGHT AND LOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. FORECAST INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO TIGHTEN LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH STATES. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS...STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THURSDAY AND THEN LOWER SLIGHTLY BY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKS WEST TO NORTHWEST. A LARGER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALSO MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION...WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. &&

[vaffie]

Based on the satellite pictures, it looks like the leading edge of the wave in the western Caribbean/Yucatan will begin merging with the wave in the Bay of Campeche tonight. At that point, the convective blowup that would occur could result in quick drops in pressure and development.

[Steve]

>>Based on the satellite pictures, it looks like the leading edge of the wave in the western Caribbean/Yucatan will begin merging with the wave in the Bay of Campeche tonight. At that point, the convective blowup that would occur could result in quick drops in pressure and development.

Maybe. But they usually decouple as quickly as they merge. So the axises (however the flip you pluralize 'axis') probably will remain mostly independent even if the temporary conjunction does offer a spark of possibility.

JMO

[Air Force Met]

In this image, I circled an area of broken clouds. In this area, I was able to see the lower cloud deck and able to tell the the motion was from north to south. Is it possible a low level circulation is trying to develop under the convection? I believe so, but I'm not entirely sure yet. Again....the circled area is NOT what I'd be saying is the center, it's just the area of broken clouds I wanted to highlight.

I think what you are seeing is in the mid-levels. If you look at this Hi-Res Vis Loop you can still see the low clouds moving NW along the 95W longitude (b/w 20N and 22N). I think there is definite vorticity there. That is why I am kinda liking the NAM solution of this over the GFS. It is initializing better. At 6 hrs (from the 12z run) it is showing nice vorticity at the mid and upper levels whereas the GFS is showing nothing. The 00Z last nice spun it up pretty well. The 00Z GFS missed it.

Shows up on the RUC too...from 15Z to 18Z.

[bbadon]

So are you still at 30% on this one AFM?

[cheezyWXguy]

Hey, I have to argue with that idea of a low pressure...I certainly see the flow from the south as you do, but can't see anythign to convince me that a low is closing off there.

There's a buoy close to where you guys are calling the "center"...42055...222 N 94 W--is showing a pressure rise (check out the last 24 hours on this plot).

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

Sorry...but I don't think we're looking at any kind of LLC yet. Seems to me we'd see pressure falls if low pressure were forming.


Your thoughts?


WJS3

The winds went up as the pressure rose...sign of an outflow boundary...doesnt necessarily tell you anthing about a low forming or not...just an outflow boundary passing thru the area

[Air Force Met]

So are you still at 30% on this one AFM?

Yeah...30% sounds about right.

[skysummit]

Ok, the MLC just exited the Yucatan. Let's see what it can do.

[Ed Mahmoud]

>>Based on the satellite pictures, it looks like the leading edge of the wave in the western Caribbean/Yucatan will begin merging with the wave in the Bay of Campeche tonight. At that point, the convective blowup that would occur could result in quick drops in pressure and development.

Maybe. But they usually decouple as quickly as they merge. So the axises (however the flip you pluralize 'axis') probably will remain mostly independent even if the temporary conjunction does offer a spark of possibility.

JMO

I think the plural of axis is axes. But I wouldn't bet money on it.

[srainhoutx]

sipet from Brownsville AFD this afternoon. NAM still not getting WFO's attention other than a "mention"...


000
FXUS64 KBRO 251903
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
203 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER MAINLY BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND CAUSE PWATS TO INCREASE TO WELL OVER 2
INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ON
THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT DRYING
TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS AN ADDITIONAL NOTE...NAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER REGARDING THIS SYSTEM
AND WILL NOT BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

we shall see.

[Steve]

From Wiki:

Final is becomes es (pronounced [ˌiːz]:
axis axes /ˈækˌsiːz/
crisis crises /ˈkɹaɪˌsiːz/
testis testes /ˈtɛsˌtiːz/

Note that axes, the plural of axis, is pronounced differently from axes (/ˈæksɪz/), the plural of axe.

[Normandy]

I think the MLC to watch for now is the one over the BOC....once that moves into the upper texas coast, the second system now over the yucatan should have a decent chance imo. Could see two tropical lows hit the upper TX coast one after another.