New 0Z ETA BRINGS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO UPPER TX COAST IN 84 HR

[Sanibel]

It sure looks like BOC is trying to twist up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am flying home from AZ tomorrow. Hopefully my flight will not be delayed/cancelled due to all this weather that is forecast!

When is the timeframe for this "possible" tropical system to impact the coast?

[Duddy]

Normandy, our pops were ranging from 30% to 60% for the rest of the week here in bay city, now the pops have been changed to 80% for the next two days. Has houstons changed any?

[srainhoutx]

I am flying home from AZ tomorrow. Hopefully my flight will not be delayed/cancelled due to all this weather that is forecast!

When is the timeframe for this "possible" tropical system to impact the coast?

slow moving at this time extremeweatherguy. AFD from HOU/GAL is considering FFA Thursday or Thursday night. PW's above 2.25 in Houston Metro. I fly Friday to NC, so watching closely

[dixiebreeze]

Latest QuikScat:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oce ... atl_13.png

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like the winds are no more than 20 kts.

[Sanibel]

BOC -The whole thing is moving too fast to have any serious tropical surface feature.

[Steve]

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[wjs3]

Hey, I have to argue with that idea of a low pressure...I certainly see the flow from the south as you do, but can't see anythign to convince me that a low is closing off there.

There's a buoy close to where you guys are calling the "center"...42055...222 N 94 W--is showing a pressure rise (check out the last 24 hours on this plot).

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

Sorry...but I don't think we're looking at any kind of LLC yet. Seems to me we'd see pressure falls if low pressure were forming.


Your thoughts?


WJS3

The winds went up as the pressure rose...sign of an outflow boundary...doesnt necessarily tell you anthing about a low forming or not...just an outflow boundary passing thru the area

Well, conceptually, yes, a pressure rise with the strong winds would suggest outflow, but the problem is...Outflow from what convection?

The winds were from the south at the time I posted this, suggesting that if it was outflow, the outflow had to be located that direction from the buoy (i.e. to the south of the buoy...). That isn't what happened. All the convection was off to the west, but the winds were from the south.

Saying it again to be clear...outflow from convection located to the west of the buoy (the only convection inthe neighborhood, BTW)should have come from the west (or some component of west) not the S.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

THERE MAY BE A SOME LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE AREA BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE FLOW ON THE LARGE SCALE IS ANTICYCLONIC
AROUND AN ATLC RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUST THROUGH.

[storms NC]

BOC -The whole thing is moving too fast to have any serious tropical surface feature.

I seen it this morning and thought the same thing.

[wxman57]

THERE MAY BE A SOME LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE AREA BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE FLOW ON THE LARGE SCALE IS ANTICYCLONIC
AROUND AN ATLC RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUST THROUGH.

Right (Greg?), nothing but anticyclonic flow and relatively high pressure out there this afternoon. I never put any stock in the ETA/NAM model as far as tropical development or movement, but it will pick up on which way tropical moisture may move. In this case, just more rain for the TX/LA area over the next few days, but development chances about zero. Will have to keep an eye on the SW Gulf as the next wave moves into the area in another 24 hours. Could see another flare-up in storms. Again, development chances are low, but not nonexistent with the next disturbance. Most likely just more rain to TX late in the weekend and early next week.

[Sanibel]

Still looks like it is trying to swirl up - albeit loosely and slowly...

[Rainband]

Send some rain this way, stay safe all of you in that area.

[hurrican19]

Right (Greg?), nothing but anticyclonic.....

KFDM Meteorologist is Kerry, greg_kfdm_tv is Greg

[Duddy]

I cannot agree with anyone saying it's coming to Northern Texas/Louisiana.

On vis sat, it is CLEARLY moving Northeast towards Florida. And fast too.


Also, the latest vis sat loop shows an LLC just South of the strongest convection right now.

[caneman]

Would have to disagree about it going NE toward Florida but I will say this, there are some dark reds popping up, certainly getting the look. May see a LLC develop just yet.

[jasons2k]

I cannot agree with anyone saying it's coming to Northern Texas/Louisiana.

On vis sat, it is CLEARLY moving Northeast towards Florida. And fast too.

Also, the latest vis sat loop shows an LLC just South of the strongest convection right now.

That's an optical illusion, in a way. The convection on the west end died off, and some new convection fired on the east side and sorta merged with the convection coming off the Yucatan. It gives the appearance that the system is actually moving to the NE/ENE, but it's not. It's just the way the convection just erupted more on the eastern side.

[Frank P]

ya never know about these things.. does look like its trying to spin up at the mid levels at 22.8 and 93.5 or in that general area... movement looks like its off in a generally northly direction, with shear blowing the TS off to the nne...

[caneman]

There is plenty of juice all around, looks like it's getting the look. Shear seems to have slackened. Just have to wait and see if we see soem pressure drops. Have seen a few west winds here and there but not for a long enough period of time. Seems to have the elements and if it gets too much time over water. Well.......