A curious question about Storm surge north of Tampa Bay...

[ftolmsteen]

If a category 5 with 160 mph+ winds, with a Katrina-like mass makes a landfall somewhere in the vacinity of Crystal River, how high of a surge would we be seeing in areas of Pasco, Hernando and Citrus county? I realise there are plenty of factors that determines intensity of surge and I'm assuming all three counties would suffer a large surge, but how large? Being that I live barely two miles from the coast, with 16-18 feet elevation at my location it's just something I've alway wondered... Would I see saltwater at my house?

[Air Force Met]

If a category 5 with 160 mph+ winds, with a Katrina-like mass makes a landfall somewhere in the vacinity of Crystal River, how high of a surge would we be seeing in areas of Pasco, Hernando and Citrus county? I realise there are plenty of factors that determines intensity of surge and I'm assuming all three counties would suffer a large surge, but how large? Being that I live barely two miles from the coast, with 16-18 feet elevation at my location it's just something I've alway wondered... Would I see saltwater at my house?

Worst case scenario takes a cat 5 moving ENE and takes a surge 7 miles into southern, 5 miles into central and 3 miles into northern Pasco county. In the southern part you are dealing with a 20-21 foot surge MSL...so figure your elevation..and figure a 2-5 foot surge into your house.

At a cat 4 you would be right at the border of 16 feet. Cat 3 you are OK. These of course are moving E or ENE....which would be rare for a Major. A NNE or NE lessens the threat even more.

[MGC]

Katrina was a Cat-3 and we got close to 30 feet of surge plus waves on top of that. It all depends on the angle the storm hits at, and how big the wind field is. The category of the storm means little....MGC

[wxman57]

I just ran SLOSH for your area for a Cat 3 and a Cat 5 moving at 5 mph to the ENE (see below). But I'd caution you that SS category is not a good estimate of surge, as others have pointed out. It's not the peak wind that makes the surge, it's the areal coverage of the stronger winds (like Katrina's massive area of 74+ mph winds). So, theoretically, a Cat 3 like Katrina would produce a surge similar to what is shown by the Cat 5 SLOSH data below. And a Cat 5 big as Katrina would produce a higher surge than is indicated by SLOSH below for an average-sized Cat 5:

Cat 3:


Cat 5:

[Downdraft]

Has anyone ever looked at the dynamics of storm surge when a storm is out to sea in the Gulf as a cat 5 moving inland and then drops in intensity as it makes landfall. What I mean is this. Katrina at one time was a cat 5 moving towards land and then lessened. As a powerful cat 5 it had to be pushing a wall of water and with such a long period wave it doesn't dissipate quickly. Is it possible the surge level would maintain itself at category 5 levels although the storm no longer meets that criteria. I believe if it does this would account for the surge for Ivan being so high too. I'd be interested in thoughts.