Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[inda_iwall]

Keep trying, maybe if you think about convection really hard then maybe just maybe it will happen, see the low, be the low, you have the power, make it happen!! Have you checked out the shear? You can see it on the sat as everthing is swirling all over the place. Nothing happening, move along, nothing to see here, nothing to see.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 260153
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Stormcenter]

ABNT20 KNHC 260153
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hmmmm... "little" development is better than "no" development if you are looking for something to track. I wouldn't write this off completely especially if the NHC considers
it worth mentioning in their TWO.

[jrod]

While conditons are not favoravble, I never write anything in this area off. Too many storms develop here with less than perfect conditions and this system does have a deep blob of convection on the latest satellite images around 24N 93W. At least the deep convection appears to be moving NNE so Texas may miss out on the heaviest of rains. It is too early to tell and Im just an amatuer working on a case of beer. Right now I'd be suprised if those goes poof in the next 24 hrs.

[Decomdoug]

"Move along people, nothing to see here, move along"



lol

In my humble opnion, there is little or no chance of this becoming anything more than a rain event. Enviroment just can't support developement. Ergo, Poof

[wxman57]

In case some of you are interested (and I know you are), I just plotted a 02Z surface map with satellite and made a 1mb hand analysis of the Gulf. It's a bit difficult to draw the lines perfectly with a mouse, but I think I captured the essence of what's happening out there. I know your eyes are immediately drawn to the "blob" near 23N/93W, mine were too. I suspected to maybe see something at the surface there but I didn't. There's a very weak surface trof quite evident to the southeast of that blob, but no evidence of any circulation center. Pressures are lowest in the southern BoC, too, not in the central Gulf. So as the NHC says, just a weak surface trof that means more rain for rain-soaked Texas and Louisiana over the next few days. Development chances less than 5%, that's a 95% chance of nothing from this wave. We still need to monitor the BoC and SW Gulf, though, as another wave will be moving into that region in 24 hours. The 2nd wave may have a little better shot at spinning up before moving inland, but still not great chances.

[Normandy]

^Agreed.

I think the only vorticity evident in this wave is in the mid-levels. Im in agreement about the second wave having a better shot at getting going. Itll have better upper-level support.

[jasons2k]

Wxman57 thank you for the chart & analysis! Excellent!

[Weatherfreak14]

IMO the wave out near africia has a better chance than this but this still needs to be watched very closely as its closer to land and anything could happen.

[HeeBGBz]

Is there a little circulation at 22n 94w?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

If you slow the animation, it's easier to see.

[Normandy]

^If there is any vorticity in that area of convection it is at the mid-levels. Look at wxman57's post on this page and he clearly illustrates the setup in the GOM right now.

[jrod]

Thanks for sharing wxman57. My only argument for development is this area has always and will continue to be a place where storms develop even against odds(aka climo). Nontheless I'll be looking at the satelitte first thing tommorow when I wake up.

[Recurve]

Thanks for sharing wxman57. My only argument for development is this area has always and will continue to be a place where storms develop even against odds(aka climo). Nontheless I'll be looking at the satelitte first thing tommorow when I wake up.

Boy, I would too if I were on the TX or LA coast.

[vaffie]

Surface winds have increased slightly at the 'mid-level center' according to Quikscat to about 22-23 knots. Still no sign of a west wind. For the eastern Bay of Campeche where the latest wave is emerging, winds are picking up too, and they clearly change direction around the western Yucatan from east to northnortheast. Winds there max at 20 knots.

[HouTXmetro]

Convection has gone Poof.... so much for these waves

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260912
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE
TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[wxman57]

Here's a 10Z 1mb analysis of the Gulf. Max winds out there 15 kts. Hard to find the wave axis now, much less any circulation. Just a weak wave and more rain for TX/LA. Second wave behind it is harder to find now.

[boca]

Wxman57 whats your take on the area around 24n and 93w? Do you think something will pop over there,it looks good on sat.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[skysummit]

Well good morning Mr. Convection. Lots of rain moving this way.

[boca]

Well good morning Mr. Convection. Lots of rain moving this way.

Skysummit get a weather channel golf umbrella their pretty good.