Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[cheezyWXguy]

It looks like this isnt even the wave the GFS was forming...considering it only starts forming the closed low 2 days from now, it looks like its forming the wave over africa right now, instead

[Frank2]

Well, far-out forecast model runs are just that - far out...

LOL

[Weatherfreak14]

Im not looking at the far out im looking within the next 48hrs of what is to happen if anything, CWXG could be right it could be the wave over africa that the GFS is developing but lets see what the next model run shows in the next coming hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

whoa...don't count our CATL/EATL tropical wave out just yet...its now starting to fire up some convection...on top of that, the 12z GFS is coming out so lets see what happens...

central atlantic IR view:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

It looks like this isnt even the wave the GFS was forming...considering it only starts forming the closed low 2 days from now, it looks like its forming the wave over africa right now, instead

Yes is that big megabomb that will emerge Africa later tonight or tommorow morning.

[Weatherfreak14]

Actually looking at the 12z GFS model it has the tropicial wave near the cape verde developing. and yes some convection is fireing.

[cheezyWXguy]

Actually looking at the 12z GFS model it has the tropicial wave near the cape verde developing. and yes some convection is fireing.

Yeah...its that little swirl W of the cape verde islands with the convection flaring up that should develop, according to the GFS. And at 54 hours it has it a little further west than before, already down to 1007mb

[Sanibel]

30W wave: POOF!


Hammered by the dominating Atlantic unfavorability under that huge suppressing airmass.


Wait til August folks. This is a repeat of 2006 for the time being.

[Aric Dunn]

CHECK OUT THIS
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html


Two surface lows taking shape anf both developing convection.. west of CV and

10n 45 w.... pretty decent easterly shear ob both.. but they are very very interesting

that burst of convection near the CV islands looks very similar

og crap you do you call those things ...hmmm let me think.. oh yeah tropical cyclones

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Aric Dunn]

..TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 16N28W 8N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 26W-33W. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AND DISORGANIZED OVERALL...A RECENT FLARE
UP OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
29W-33W.


TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 15N42W 11N44W 6N45W MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN ELONGATED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 39W-46W. LIKE ITS
COUNTERPART FURTHER E...THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN SATELLITE
DERIVED VORTICITY AND TPW PRODUCTS. THE NEARBY MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
45W-51W. ANOTHER LESS IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-8N. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
STRETCHED TO THE W WITH UPPER ELY FLOW OVER THE AREA.











SAL is fairly minimal for once.. but there is till some pretty dry air to the north..

[cycloneye]

Here is the full disk image at 18:00z that covers a large area of the Atlantic and the African continent.Here you can see all the systems inside and outside Africa.

For those who haved not registered to get these images yet,here is the link,and it's for free.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/registerql.html

[Aric Dunn]

Should have some invest soon

[Bane]

CHECK OUT THAT THIS
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html


Two surface lows taking shape anf both developing convection.. west of CV and

10n 45 w.... pretty decent easterly shear ob both.. but they are very very interesting

that burst of convection near the CV islands looks very similar

og crap you do you call those things ...hmmm let me think.. oh yeah tropical cyclones

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

neither one of these looks impressive yet. the one at 35 W does look better than the lead one, but it most likely won't develop anytime soon.

[Sanibel]

29W has a mild burst associated with it, but Aric - come-on - neither of these looks like anything. Posting on these all day won't make them form.

[Aric Dunn]

those were my first posts Today ?
and seriously beside the lack of deep convection.. they are the only thing in the basin to watch and the only things since what 96l that has had any sort of a surface feature that was worth noting
otherwise i would not mention them at all except for that reason

[skysummit]

29W has a mild burst associated with it, but Aric - come-on - neither of these looks like anything. Posting on these all day won't make them form.

I'm getting really tired of posts such as these. Why can't we discuss the tropics in a tropical forum???

[T-man]

They look really interesting, to me! Let's see what the next 48 hrs brings.

[stormchazer]

29W has a mild burst associated with it, but Aric - come-on - neither of these looks like anything. Posting on these all day won't make them form.

I'm getting really tired of posts such as these. Why can't we discuss the tropics in a tropical forum???

Thank you Skysummit! This in a nutshell explains why I rarely post anymore. I love S2K for its info, but it has become a competition of who can rip a post the most sometimes. It use to be just about discussing the Tropics.

Sorry for my rant, back to the Tropics.

Jara

[NDG]

Interesting that the Euro has a system developing in its long range forecast, tracking towards the islands.

[skysummit]

Whoa serious? I haven't even looked at the Euro yet. LOL