Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[HURAKAN]

i think that is grasping at straws.

I guess since Barry also formed from what seemed to be a "mess" or "unorganized area of thunderstorms that was highly sheared." They don't want to leave that possibility out of the question with this system.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Note that the wording is starting to change some now. Now they are using words like
upper level winds are not favorable for "SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT" instead of "NO DEVELOPMENT" is expected.

That's a change that began with the 530 Outlook this morning (ie, a bullish jump from last night's "LITTLE DEVELOPMENT"), but then you could say that the 1130 Outlook took a relatively bearish turn with the introduction of a 2nd negative factor (surface pressures not falling) to keep "SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT" at bay.

The wording changes could just be due to forecaster changes (ie, Franklin to Rhome to Avila), and we are just grasping at straws as Bane says...

[Steve]

Here's the latest "true color" from nexsat Heh.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... _composite

[Cyclone1]

I agree with Stormcenter, I pay attention to the wording they use.

[Stormcenter]

i think that is grasping at straws.

I've got to "grasp" at something. Otherwise there
is nothing out worth grasping for out there.

[HURAKAN]

If they were sure nothing was going to develop, they would straight tell you "DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED." But they are not sure, so they use, "LITTLE DEVELOPMENT," or "SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED."

[Steve]

To the poster who said the last thing that SE Texas needs is a tropical storm, I'd caution that rainfall from disturbances or depressions can sometimes greatly exceed that found in a tropical storm. You're going to get rainfall, organized or not IMHO.

Steve

[southerngale]

To the poster who said the last thing that SE Texas needs is a tropical storm, I'd caution that rainfall from disturbances or depressions can sometimes greatly exceed that found in a tropical storm. You're going to get rainfall, organized or not IMHO.

Steve

Exactly. It's not a big deal to me whether it develops into anything "organized" or not, because I don't think it would develop into anything strong enough that winds would be an issue. The end result is the same... more rain.

The next 7 days with NWS shows a sea of rain.

[TexasF6]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 261544
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1044 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

.UPDATE...NEW NAM MODEL THIS MORNING HAS US CONCERNED. MODEL SHOWS
NEAR PERPENDICULAR FLOW (TO THE ESCARPMENT) IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY
LATE TONIGHT WITH SOURCE REGION FROM THE DEEP SOUTHWEST GULF. COMBINED
WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT IN THE ALREADY TROPIC-LIKE ATMOSPHERE, HAVE
RAISED PROBABILITIES TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND UPPED QPF AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. PERPENDICULAR
FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KTS AT THE 925 MB LEVEL IN THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT
LEADS US TO BELIEVE SERIOUS FLOOD PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST ESCARPMENT FROM AUSTIN/GEORGETOWN AREA DOWN TO
SAN ANTONIO TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECASTS AND GRIDS OUT SOON.

Any thoughts? Looks like we Texans need to start buildin' that Ark....any pressure falls noted in the buoys yet?

[srainhoutx]

To the poster who said the last thing that SE Texas needs is a tropical storm, I'd caution that rainfall from disturbances or depressions can sometimes greatly exceed that found in a tropical storm. You're going to get rainfall, organized or not IMHO.

Steve

Exactly. It's not a big deal to me whether it develops into anything "organized" or not, because I don't think it would develop into anything strong enough that winds would be an issue. The end result is the same... more rain.

The next 7 days with NWS shows a sea of rain.

We've had enough rain for to last us a long, long time. Sure would like to see a pattern change, but it has been a bit crazy here since Jan 16th. The last thing TX needs is more rain.

[whereverwx]

I'm not optimistic about this system. Besides, it's not even an invest.

[crazycajuncane]

As stated above... it doesn't matter if it becomes Tropical Depression or even a Tropical Storm.. look how much rain Texas and SW LA has seen since like the beginning of 2007 and any rain event starts to become a concern.

I don't think anyone in Texas or SW LA is worried about 40 mph winds as much as they are 4 feet of water.

Here's to keeping "some" in the forecast.

[southerngale]

Exactly. It's not a big deal to me whether it develops into anything "organized" or not, because I don't think it would develop into anything strong enough that winds would be an issue. The end result is the same... more rain.

The next 7 days with NWS shows a sea of rain.

We've had enough rain for to last us a long, long time. Sure would like to see a pattern change, but it has been a bit crazy here since Jan 16th. The last thing TX needs is more rain.

Yeah, I know. I'm just a little east of you. I think it's been crazy since Memorial Day, 2006 though. We went from severe drought to a rain surplus very quickly. We've had a ton of rain since then, quite often, with several flooding events, including the one in October, the one that set records on local rivers and flooded many homes and businesses.

[Stormcenter]

It's July 26th (hurricane season)and we have a huge mass of disturbed weather in the W.GOM so that in itself that should be enough reason to keep everyones attention including mine.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[MGC]

Development is getting less likely as the disturbance lifts northward into a higher shear area. With that ULL parked over Texas and the disturbance interacting with it, I can only see a potential flooding event for Texas. This looks to have the potential to be a pretty bad flooding event....MGC

[Nimbus]

All the convection is getting sheared northeast but there may be at least one vortex on the western edge of the system. From Houston on east it looks like flood warnings. Wouldn't be surprised to see wind readings from the south above 40 MPH over a small area along the Texas coast or islands.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[artist]

does anyone have the link to the ghcc website? There are actually 2 links- one has weather in the beginning of it I think. I recently lost everything including my links. Thanks for your help. I would like both links as one is a backup I remember.

[Sanibel]

There's obviously some serious energy in that wave. 2006 shear is still there, but this year there's a lot more moisture. I'm convinced this is a tropical system that is not being allowed to touch its feet on the surface due to shear. Could be some serious energy out there this year in the Gulf if the shear slackens.

[skysummit]

does anyone have the link to the ghcc website? There are actually 2 links- one has weather in the beginning of it I think. I recently lost everything including my links. Thanks for your help. I would like both links as one is a backup I remember.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[Wx_Warrior]

I guess it's time for me to go watch Evan Almighty!