Signs of change from global models

[Weatherfreak14]

As long as the east coast trough is present 10 storms can line up like a train and will probably curve harmlessly out to sea thank goodness. Reasoning is that its hard to change a pattern thats been in place so long. The trough is supposed to amplify this weekend too. Whatever forms out in the Atlantic will turn northward.

Storms that delope slowly and at low latitude are more likely NOT to become a fish.Anywhere from the coastal Gulf to Carolinas could get tagged

I really hate it when you say carolinias, LOL. but if this develops and the trough on the east coast changes, we are in trouble.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 144 hours.

It looks so far weaker than in past runs.Let's continue to watch as it continues to roll in.

[Rieyeuxs]

I hate to be a downer on this topic, but fail to see what everyone's so excited about. Or maybe more to the point, other than the model runs, (and climatology) why do people think that the season is getting ready to "open"?

This topic was started 8 days ago and I see nothing in those early model runs even start to pan out. In fact there is nothing in the Atlantic right now that even suggests a chance of development.

I keep reading about forecasted decreased shear, but it hasn't happened anymore than the increased moisture (decreasing SAL) that is said to occur. The recent forecasts from the NHC don't seem to indicate anything's getting ready to roll either.

I am not calling the season closed by any means and I am definitely not picking on anybody. I gues other than these unrealistic model runs, what shifts are we to be looking for to declare the basin "open". Is it a gradual thing or is there a shift is the flows we should be monitoring. I know I've asked this in a previous thread, but I didn't get a clear answer. I just don't see any changes (models or otherwise) from 1st of July till now that makes me think we're getting started anytime soon.

[canegrl04]

As long as the east coast trough is present 10 storms can line up like a train and will probably curve harmlessly out to sea thank goodness. Reasoning is that its hard to change a pattern thats been in place so long. The trough is supposed to amplify this weekend too. Whatever forms out in the Atlantic will turn northward.

Storms that delope slowly and at low latitude are more likely NOT to become a fish.Anywhere from the coastal Gulf to Carolinas could get tagged

I really hate it when you say carolinias, LOL. but if this develops and the trough on the east coast changes, we are in trouble.

Actually,it's my spelling of develope that has me worried

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 168 hours.

[Meso]

It is looking weaker,if it were to develop and stay weaker (hypothetically)...It would probably stand more chance of being a bad thing,with a more southerly route

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 216 hours.

Yes Meso,more weaker,more south route and this is doing that although nothing strong crossing the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS loop



The 12z run of GFS is now complete.Nothing spectacular compared to the 00z and 6z runs.In summary a weaker run.

Now let's see if other models show something at their 12z runs or they dont show anything.

[Eyewall]

Well all i know is the next wave coming off africa is a beast.. and theres lots of moisture

[cycloneye]

The 12z Canadian model shows a stronger system than GFS.

[Cyclone1]

Model agreement.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks very interesting, finally something to follow.

[cycloneye]

The 12z UKMET shows only a glimpse of something in the Eastern Atlantic.

[Aquawind]

Well after looking at the recent runs it's not the intensity of any particular wave or low that concerns or even interests me. Intensity is our most difficult challenge even with a developed system. The intensity suggested by the models beyond 3 or 4 days is highly suspect..so when we see a weaker run that far out it's kinda irrelevant.

It's the persistant systems and consistant runs of a specific system that are most noticable that far out.. and then yes model agreement of course.

[cycloneye]

Well after looking at the recent runs it's not the intensity of any particular wave or low that concerns or even interests me. Intensity is our most difficult challenge even with a developed system. The intensity suggested by the models beyond 3 or 4 days is highly suspect..so when we see a weaker run that far out it's kinda irrelevant.

It's the persistant systems and consistant runs of a specific system that are most noticable that far out.. and then yes model agreement of course.

Agreed on the intensity part Paul.Now I am waiting for NOGAPS.

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ngp/20 ... /slp23.png
Nogaps 12z at 132 hours

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ngp/2007072612/slp23.png
Nogaps 12z at 132 hours

A good agreement from all of these models showing something from more strong to only a glimpse.

[Frank2]

That's 00Z Wednesday, so, the models must be picking up on the wave nearing the African coast - you'd have to think that perhaps it's based more on the time of year than the forecast strength of the wave...

We'll have to wait and see what happens...

[cycloneye]

18z GFS starts to roll.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 48 hours.