Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[skysummit]

Wow, and it actually keeps the low all the way across the Atlantic and moves it toward the northern islands. Yea, I'd say we have model agreement. Now, lets just see if mother nature comes through.

[cycloneye]

Interesting that the Euro has a system developing in its long range forecast, tracking towards the islands.

But where is the link?

[skysummit]

Interesting that the Euro has a system developing in its long range forecast, tracking towards the islands.

But where is the link?

240 hours....knocking on your door Luis.



http://tinyurl.com/2kraud

[Bane]

29W has a mild burst associated with it, but Aric - come-on - neither of these looks like anything. Posting on these all day won't make them form.

I'm getting really tired of posts such as these. Why can't we discuss the tropics in a tropical forum???

Thank you Skysummit! This in a nutshell explains why I rarely post anymore. I love S2K for its info, but it has become a competition of who can rip a post the most sometimes. It use to be just about discussing the Tropics.

Sorry for my rant, back to the Tropics.

Jara

i don't think anyone is saying not ot talk about the tropics. i personally love all the maps Aric puts on these forums, but i don't think everything out there has a chance to develop.

[Aquawind]

GFS 240 hrs.. Luis

[NDG]

If memory serves me correct, the euro has been coming out off and on with similar runs for the past couple fo days
Here it is at 72hrs:



At 240 hrs:

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[stormchazer]

i

don't think anyone is saying not ot talk about the tropics. i personally love all the maps Aric puts on these forums, but i don't think everything out there has a chance to develop.

You said the key. He post maps to back up his discussion. If people want to disagree then point out the reason to disagree. not break out the flamethrowers.

Now, I do think that it is interesting that there appears to be some convection in the Cent Atl and it coincides with what some models have been showing as a possible place for a developing low. Lets see if it persist and what happens.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html

Re-fire..

[Cyclone1]

I didn't really buy into this, even with the GFS, and the CMC calling for development. Just another phantom cyclone that ends up being a no-show.

But, with 3 models picking up on it, and evidence of an actual approaching wave, I'd be surprised if this didn't form.

[Weatherfreak14]

i think that this wave has a chance just by the way conditions are changing, its not completly changed but will be completly change in the next week or so, and things are now somewhat favorible for development, maybe this wave will continue to have convection fire all through the night.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

8:05pm NHC Discussion

TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG 7N31W 16N27W MOVING W 10 KT. A SMALL
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N30W...AND THIS IS THE FOCUS OF A
RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic now is accompanied by a 1010 low
8:05pm Discussion

TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG 5N45W 10N45W 15N42W MOVING W 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SMALL-SCALE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 10N45W AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A WESTERLY WIND OF 15
KT FROM SHIP A8IY6 AT 18Z JUST S OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

[Cyclone1]

We got a sfc low! Time to party!

[Weatherfreak14]

We got a sfc low! Time to party!

when and if its gets to be a TD then i will party.

[Aric Dunn]

I do agree.. and there is one further east as i mentioned earlier..

we should have an invest tomorrow

[canegrl04]

We got a sfc low! Time to party!

when and if its gets to be a TD then i will party.

Fingers crossed

[Normandy]

Mmmmmmmm.
You know whats really unfortunate about this little system? That easterly shear thats hammering it.
You know what else is really unfortunate? That dry air its entraining. Not much of a chance here.

[djones65]

The circulation near 10N and 45W looks very interesting tonight. There is more convection associated with it currently than there has been in its entire life. It has been attached to the ITCZ which appears more like a monsoon trough the past several days with strongly pronounced westerly winds to its south. Nevertheless, there may be some weak or loose interaction with the upper level circulation in the middle Atlantic northeast of Puerto Rico which is the "trigger" for deep convection. Now that the pump has been "primed" so to speak... i.e. deep convection just west and partially over the better defined circulation, this system deserves more careful monitoring. Yes, there is dry air north of the system, but the easterly shear appears to be diminishing a bit and there has been some interesting ship reports.
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_se ... =A&time=12
If you go to the above link you will see ship reports over the past several hours. One ship at 1800 UTC reported 270 degree winds at 15.5 knots and 1010 mb.
At 0000 UTC a ship near 11.3 N and 45.7W reported NNE or 30 degree winds at 20 knots and a pressure of 1011 mb with 8.5 foot seas.
Personally I believe this circulation is producing 20-25 knot winds and is encountering decreasing upper level easterly shear and deserves monitoring. It is about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands and has become better defined with some ship reports to back up my assertion.

[Hyperstorm]

djones65...

I totally agree with you. I was about to write about this when I saw this earlier this evening.

Folks, the system near 10N 46W is the one to watch during the next 24+ hours. I expect an invest to be issued for this system by tomorrow. It has a classical pre-developmental stage to it, with the surface low CLEARLY visible on satellite imagery and deep convection wanting to travel toward the center even with moderate easterly shear. The very slow motion. southern latitude, and tropical wave to the east and northeast is keeping it from encountering the dry air to its north. There is just something to it that tells me, based on my years of experience, that this system has the potential to be our next named storm.

Get ready to rumble over the next 24 hours with this system and after that with the super-system about to emerge Africa.

2007 is beginning....