Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[Air Force Met]

As of an hour ago, for the first time, the pressure at the 42002 buoy is lower than those measured to it's south, north, east, and west--at 1013.9 mb.

26/19 42002 25.2 -94.4 26.6 25.0 150 21 G 25 140 27 1013.9 -1.5 28.6 2.0 7 42002

Pressure's up to 1014.2mb at that buoy now. Straight SE flow through the area of squalls. It'll be inland long before anything can develop.Just a rain event for TX/LA. Could be some serious flooding over the next 24 hours, and the Houston NWS has no flood watch out.

Guess they are going to let the mid-shift put it out.

As far as development goes...at this point...it doesn't really matter. The results would be about the same. 850 mb winds are going to be about 35 kts over the area tomorrow and it is going to rain like a TD. In heavier squalls...it will feel like a TD....and will probably even beat TS Grace.

[Duddy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

This loop shows a VERY strong circulation. Looks like it may rapidly intensify to me.

[Aric Dunn]

probably local T'storm

but this buoy has a ene wind ..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

[srainhoutx]

just a few obs from Deep S TX and MEX...

http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/roman/cwa/BRO_frame.html

[Air Force Met]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

This loop shows a VERY strong circulation. Looks like it is about to rapidly intensify to me.

The problem with that loop is it shows what is happening 20K-30K feet above the sfc. There is a mid-level vortex SE of GLS...but again...at the angle the beam is at...and the distance...the rotation is occurring at 10K feet.

There is nothing at the sfc right now but a sfc trof and if any low would form...it would probably form pretty close to the Texas Coast...not near the convection. That is the way hybrid type systems like to do things.

[Air Force Met]

probably local T'storm

but this buoy has a ene wind ..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

That's probably a real ENE wind. The sfc trof is east of there and there is a hint of a low level circulation attempting to form along the Texas Coast east of Padre Island.


HiRes Vis Loop

[HouTXmetro]

Brownsville Station reporting NE winds also...

http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/roman/cwa/BRO_frame.html

[wxman57]

Here's a 22Z surface map. Note that there is anticyclonic turning through the area of heavy convection and relatively high pressure there. Lower pressure is along the lower TX coast in the area free of convection associated with the weak trof axis. TC development is unlikely, rain is likely for TX/LA.

['CaneFreak]

Here's a 22Z surface map. Note that there is anticyclonic turning through the area of heavy convection and relatively high pressure there. Lower pressure is along the lower TX coast in the area free of convection associated with the weak trof axis. TC development is unlikely, rain is likely for TX/LA.

I could not agree more as upper level winds are just not favorable this time around. Nice map!!!

[Steve]

>>This loop shows a VERY strong circulation. Looks like it may rapidly intensify to me.

Not a chance.

Any slight spin can get stronger as it approaches land if it's at the right angle and if conditions warrant. But that's the water vapor loop. The biggest circulation I see on it is the high pressure surrounding the entire gulf and spinning clockwise.

And like I said earlier today, the storms would likely die out (not just as they approach the coast from the south) but also at night just like they did last night. At some point, there will be another blow up tomorrow and that might be the day when significant rainfall reaches areas of Louisiana and points in Texas farther inland that those that got hammered today.

Unfortunately, Corpus NWS hasn't reset their "storm total" since Sunday and also unfortunately, Houston/Galveston did reset theirs today at 1:19pm for whatever reason. But if you go to Lake Charles which shows amounts since just after midnight, there are several 2-4" measurements just in from the coast.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Steve

[Cyclone1]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007072612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The CMC... develops it!?

[inda_iwall]

Dont think it is going to happen, just a cluster of stroms that will poof again here soon, need to search elsewhere, all is still safe on the gulf coast.

['CaneFreak]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007072612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The CMC... develops it!?

CMC IS ON CRACK COCAINE AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!

[NcentralFlaguy]

despite conditions not being ideal for development , it is hard to ignore just how well defined this system is appearing on the vis sattelite loop.

[Cyclone1]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007072612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The CMC... develops it!?

CMC IS ON CRACK COCAINE AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!

Gah, I thought rehab after that Miami hurricane it forecast a few weeks ago would have helped it... It's time for an intervention.

[lrak]

Well normally CC TX about this time of day we have SE winds at 15-20kts and P/C skys. Right now we have those cool black tropical water filled puffs blowing N to S down the beach towards SPI.

It is getting topical out side No rain right...or even any at all for that matter we don't need anymore.

Good luck Houston, over and out.

[Cyclone1]

despite conditions not being ideal for development , it is hard to ignore just how well defined this system is appearing on the vis sattelite loop.

Exactly my thoughts! It's better than Allison looked when it was there! (strictly on satellite, mind you)

[Duddy]

With how defined this system looks right now, I'm surprised it's not an Invest already.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Right before sunset on the visible, it looks very healthy. but i have been told many times that "looks can be decieving"

despite conditions not being ideal for development , it is hard to ignore just how well defined this system is appearing on the vis sattelite loop.

Exactly my thoughts! It's better than Allison looked when it was there! (strictly on satellite, mind you)

[Steve]

>>despite conditions not being ideal for development , it is hard to ignore just how well defined this system is appearing on the vis sattelite loop.

I agree with that. And score one for the NAM for having something in the area when no other model did. It's similar to the CMC which everyone was scoffing at 2 weeks ago and all of the sudden there was moisture off the NE Coast.

It goes like this - those models aren't going to be anywhere near right. But when we dog on them, we're often going to get pie in our faces, crow pie even.



Steve