Tropical Wave in Western GOM

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jrod
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#281 Postby jrod » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:07 pm

I think this is now an area of interest. I haven't checked the buoys for indication of a pressure drops, Im just going with how it looks on the satellite. That said it does appear that the thunderstorms are deteorating right now. Like last night the blob of energy looks like it is moving NNE, so the saturated areas of Texas may get somewhat of a break, but still will see some rain. Im just an amatuer and I am sure a pro will drop by soon, if not already to give us their insight.
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#282 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:08 pm

It does look quite good ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html ) and shear is actually diminishing some over that area too ( http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html )..but the question is, will it have enough time to develop into an organized TC? The answer to that question is probably no, but as others have stated, the effects will likely be about the same.
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#283 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:10 pm

Hmm, been looking at a few things.

I am a little concerned, actually, with this system and I'll lay it out.

First of all, on the last set of visibles it looks like another MLC has formed near 92W 26N. It is headed NE in the shear. It, in itself may not mean much, but these can't just continue to do this. If the system stays out there long enough, eventually one of these might work its way down. It's still too early though and this one will likely die off.

2nd: Yes, it's the AVN, but according to it, shear will be dropping off:

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

3rd: Currently the shear is between 15-20 kts around the system. If it shoots north and goes "with the shear", so to speak, we could see a something spin-up as the difference will decrease the "relative shear".

Just some thoughts for now...
Last edited by jasons2k on Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#284 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:10 pm

This has to qualify for at least 98L. Am I right? Anyone remember 91L? And 95L? And, well, 97L?
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#285 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:12 pm

Is it just me or is the water vapor loop starting to show a more favorable upper air pattern for development in the central gulf? The center of the anticyclone moved NW nearer the convection.

I would really like to go to bed tonight with the comforting knowledge that the rain from tommorrows diurnal max will slosh ashore harmlessly without developing.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
Last edited by Nimbus on Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#286 Postby Starburst » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:13 pm

Probably will not be 98L just due to the fact that the ending will be the same even if it was a tropical storm etc.. rain rain rain
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#287 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:16 pm

Which satelitte is best for this system at night? I was using visible all day. I am currently using shortwave (IR2.)
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#288 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:18 pm

Some more - just read EWG's post. Look at the shear link he posted:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Now rewind 3, 6, 9 hours. Look at all the Orange & yellow - and the tendency was increasing. Then come back forward. See it shrinking? And now the tendency is decreasing.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#289 Postby flwxwatcher » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:28 pm

From the 8:05 P.M. Tropical Discussion

GULF OF MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW AND
N/CENTRAL GULF AND MOVE N INTO SE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. A SURFACE
TROUGH HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY AS WELL AS FROM THE COASTAL BUOYS E OF TEXAS...AND LIES
OVER THE EXTREME W GULF FROM 28N95W TO 22N96W. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WITH DIFFLUENCE LYING BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER...
THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SINCE
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT CURRENTLY FALLING. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS E TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 2.25" ACCORDING
TO MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SOUNDINGS FROM BROWNSVILLE...CORPUS
CHRISTI...AND LAKE CHARLES. THE DEPTH OF THE ONSHORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SHALLOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHICH COULD DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT WILL AFFECT
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#290 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:41 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Might I add that I have an untrained eye.

Just my observations: I see more of a clockwise circulation than a counter-clockwise circulation. Shear seems to be decreasing in much of the GOM. Not a whole lot of dry air in the area. SST's are certainly warm enough. I'm not seeing enough CCC to call it development yet. Development could be possible in the future. I see this as more of a rainmaker for the western and central GOM than a wind maker even if this develops. I think 3-8" of rain will fall in areas that dont necessarily need the rain, 1-2" (up to 4" locally) in drought stricken areas to the east. If development occurs, it should be slow to occur. I think it will move in a northerly direction.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#291 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:44 pm

Heavy rain with this system
I think maybe a depression or tropical
storm
Right now it is more intense looking than a
tropical storm but it is not a tropical
storm
Interesting.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#292 Postby jrod » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:49 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Heavy rain with this system
I think maybe a depression or tropical
storm
Right now it is more intense looking than a
tropical storm but it is not a tropical
storm
Interesting.


There is no west winds with the system, Im guessing that makes it an open wave. Im still cant help myself from checking it every half hour for the next satellite frame.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#293 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:54 pm

Actually NO satellite is going to tell you what's really happening out there in the Gulf, particularly IR satellite. With IR satellite, you're looking at cloud tops 3-5 miles above the surface. Any circulation you think you see is not at the surface. Pressures are, in fact, rising across that area of convection and there is a HIGH pressure center over it (1018-1019mb). The weak surface trof is on the TX coast now and moving inland. Pretty hard to get TC development with high pressure at the surface and convection that cannot persist in one area. Here's the 02Z analysis with 1mb increments. Again, it's not easy doing this with a mouse, so it's not perfect. Pencil and paper are a lot easier.

Image
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#294 Postby Normandy » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:06 pm

Meh....im starting to think this rain even might be a bust for SE Texas.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#295 Postby TexWx » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:07 pm

Looks like Louisiana to me.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#296 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:07 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270155
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#297 Postby djones65 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:10 pm

Excellent work wxman57!!!
Seriously, it really helps put proper perspective when we can have what's going on at the surface superposed over a satellite image. Thank you! As I see from your surface analysis there is a pretty good pressure gradient between the high over the north central Gulf and the weak trough that appears to have moved inland. Six mb over approximately 330 miles or so is probably producing some strong winds over the NW Gulf, but obviously the convection is a product of the strong upper level diffluence between the upper anticyclone in the Bay of Campeche and the upper cyclone over southwest Texas.
When I first started my passion of tropical cyclone watching I was a youngster and glued to the satellite imagery and I didn't understand the difference between upper level and surface circulations. If something spun on satellite or if there was a concentration of thunderstorms I was certain of development. With the Internet and experience I realize now that there MUST be a surface circulation or trough to coincide with the thunderstorms. In my experience, it seemed the majority of the times there WAS a surface disturbance that produced the deep convection, but many times it is merely upper level diffluence (something I never understood for many years). If we had the Internet available when I was growing up, I doubt I would ever have left the house during hurricane season.. LOL Thanks once again wxman57!
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#298 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:25 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

ditto
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#299 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:28 pm

This system is a tease just like 98L was last year... GO AWAY!!
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#300 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:51 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:This system is a tease just like 98L was last year... GO AWAY!!


The only reason to monitor this disturbance is for the heavy rainfall potential across SE TX and LA the next few days. If you want to monitor a region that has a chance of development, head over to one of the 3-4 threads on the wave coming off the coast of Africa. I think that region will be the source of Chantal over the next week or two.
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