AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.1N 154.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN LARGE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 200MB ANTICYCLONE
JUST NORTH THE DISTURBANCE, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
WPAC: Invest 97W
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WPAC: Invest 97W
Last edited by Chacor on Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W near Saipan [JTWC: FAIR]
Thanks for posting this Chacor.
JMA are listing this as an LPA at the moment:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 19N 156E WSW SLOWLY.
They also have a TD listed which is moving northwards, however it looks like it'll be pretty short lived:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 25N 135E NORTH 10 KT.
JMA are listing this as an LPA at the moment:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 19N 156E WSW SLOWLY.
They also have a TD listed which is moving northwards, however it looks like it'll be pretty short lived:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 25N 135E NORTH 10 KT.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W near Saipan [JTWC: FAIR]
Latest T# is 1.5 now:
TPPN10 PGTW 270912
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NE OF GUAM
B. 27/0830Z
C. 18.7N/6
D. 154.4E/4
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/STT: D0.5/03HRS (27/0530Z)
G. IR/EIR LLCC
38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
DELEO
TPPN10 PGTW 270912
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NE OF GUAM
B. 27/0830Z
C. 18.7N/6
D. 154.4E/4
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/STT: D0.5/03HRS (27/0530Z)
G. IR/EIR LLCC
38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
DELEO
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Here's the latest Guam discussion:
.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR 154E AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A CLOSE ONE FOR MOST OF THE
ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN. THE MODELS SUGGEST AN ABRUPT NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT ON SUNDAY DURING THE CLOSEST APPROACH JUST EAST OF THESE
ISLANDS...HOWEVER THESE MODELS WERE A BIT BEHIND AND ABOUT A
DEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE ACTUAL POSITION. THIS DIFFERENCE MIGHT
BE JUST WHAT IS NEEDED TO PUT THE SYSTEM OVER THESE ISLANDS. AT
THIS POINT THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO IS FOR TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
WINDS OVER ANY ISLAND WITH A DIRECT HIT...BUT MORE WILL BE KNOWN ONCE
AN OFFICIAL WARNING IS ISSUED.
.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...MOST MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR 154E AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A CLOSE ONE FOR MOST OF THE
ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN. THE MODELS SUGGEST AN ABRUPT NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT ON SUNDAY DURING THE CLOSEST APPROACH JUST EAST OF THESE
ISLANDS...HOWEVER THESE MODELS WERE A BIT BEHIND AND ABOUT A
DEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE ACTUAL POSITION. THIS DIFFERENCE MIGHT
BE JUST WHAT IS NEEDED TO PUT THE SYSTEM OVER THESE ISLANDS. AT
THIS POINT THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO IS FOR TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
WINDS OVER ANY ISLAND WITH A DIRECT HIT...BUT MORE WILL BE KNOWN ONCE
AN OFFICIAL WARNING IS ISSUED.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W near Saipan [JTWC: FAIR]
0600 update.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 19N 154E WSW SLOWLY
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 19N 154E WSW SLOWLY
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JTWC has issued a TCFA for this now:
WTPN21 PGTW 271330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.3N 155.1E TO 17.6N 148.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.6N 154.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1N
154.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NEAR VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE, BUT
HAS YET TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE FAR SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN
LARGE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A 200MB ANTICYCLONE JUST NORTH THE DISTURBANCE,
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE INCREASED CONVECTION
IN THE NEAR THE LLCC AND THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 281330Z.//
WTPN21 PGTW 271330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.3N 155.1E TO 17.6N 148.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.6N 154.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1N
154.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NEAR VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE, BUT
HAS YET TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE FAR SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN
LARGE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A 200MB ANTICYCLONE JUST NORTH THE DISTURBANCE,
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE INCREASED CONVECTION
IN THE NEAR THE LLCC AND THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 281330Z.//
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Re: WPAC: Invest 97W
NRL site has it as 05W.Bilis
Which I just realized is not the next name in the list. (Was this one retired already?) It's some weird glitch.
Which I just realized is not the next name in the list. (Was this one retired already?) It's some weird glitch.
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