Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[punkyg]

Eastern atlantic

http://www.tropmet.com/tropics_atlantic.htm
http://www.tropmet.com/satellite/java/eatl_ir_loop.htm

Central atlantic

http://www.tropmet.com/tropics_atlantic.htm
http://www.tropmet.com/satellite/java/catl_ir_loop.htm

[hcane27]

looks as though the long-anticipated wave that just rolled off the African coast is not looking much different than all of the others so far this year ....

[punkyg]

The huge beautiful wave thats coming off of africa now looks like its being eaten
by the ITCZ monster.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

[NONAME]

This is the best looking thing out there right now and I can not understand why people are not talking about it. It the only thing with a low preasure. Sure it sheared a little but its not that bad just give it a chance. It might take a few days but I think this will do something.

[canegrl04]

TWC's tropical update this morning said the two waves "bear monitoring" .

[Blown Away]

Is there a spin in the clouds near 12/33?

[cheezyWXguy]

This is the best looking thing out there right now and I can not understand why people are not talking about it. It the only thing with a low preasure. Sure it sheared a little but its not that bad just give it a chance. It might take a few days but I think this will do something.

If you are talking about the wave coming off africa, I totally agree, although the other ones look good as well, but this one has the most potential. Sure, it doesn't look great right now, but its beginning to feel the effects of moving over water...after that it should begin to refire convection and slowly develop. However, because of the intensifying shear near it, development should be very slow the next day or 2. BUt after that, maybe monday or tuesday, this could develop, and this probably has the best potential of any wave that has come off the african coast this year.

On the other hand, the weak low in the CATL, still has potential, and should not be disregarded

[hcane27]

the models are rapidly "jumping ship" on the "monster wave" from Africa ....

[Aric Dunn]

actually the wave rolling off africa looks to have a strong Low level circulation
the low is just getting over water now
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html


is just diving south as the normally do

[dwg71]

What percentage of "huge" waves coming off Africa actually develop. My unscientific guess would be less than 5%.

[Aric Dunn]

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 16N45W 11N45W 6N47W MOVING W 5-10
KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE NEAR 12N. ISOLATED
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS MAINLY FROM 9N-15N. THIS WAVE REMAINS IDENTIFIABLE IN
SSMI DERIVED TPW IN ADDITION TO CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA

[Meso]

Still no mention in the 5:30 TWO

[NONAME]

Hey the wave around 45w is having a nice flare up of convection and is starting to look nice you watch this wave.

[canegrl04]

Lets all take a collective deep breath and calm down untill mid August,cuz that when the next td is most likely going to form

[Meso]

Canegrl : You always posting bumping down systems saying "wait." , "It's not going to happen" etc (You're not the only one).. But not everyone here waits till a TD forms and is not only interested in that. No one here is saying "Omg it's a hurricane duck!",they are simply stating the waves conditions,if it's a big wave,it's a big wave.No one is saying it will definitely develop.And it's impossible to say when the next TD will form.If there is a wave out there,that's what the forum is for,to discuss it; Regardless if it's nothing. If one doesn't want to monitor a wave they don't have to,they can wait for the thread saying "tropical depression" but it kind of annoys me when people are always saying "Wait another month for any development", "Not going to happen" even when people aren't saying that development is likely,they are simply stating the conditions in the Atlantic and describing things how they are. Just my 2 cents,but if someone doesn't want to monitor the tropics area-by-area they can just wait till there is a thread on an already formed depression..*shrug*

[Nimbus]

Blob alert for the wave near 50W. Ya I know, its dry but that area has the best broad circulation.

And as for Mesos comment, Storm2k has saved me a lot of grief in the past. Information gets posted here very quickly so we get the news before the media has a chance to broadcast it. In the case of Charley in 2004 this saved me from having to evacuate as the storm changed course at the last minute. People living along the gulf coast know what happens when the media hypes a storm. It becomes absolute pandemonium at the stores, long lines at the gas stations etc etc. As long as comments have some solid factual reasoning to support their view and the post is on topic I never have a problem with it. As Chad mentioned if a poster consistantly posts random crap you can killfile them.

[canegrl04]

Meso -thanks for your observation.I guess I never looked at it that way

[skysummit]

It has the "fan feature" on this morning:

[hial2]

It has the "fan feature" on this morning:

Positive or negative for development?

[Steve H.]

What I find interesting about the central atlantic this morning is that if you look at the visible loop of the central atlantic right now, what the heck is that blob of dark water about 2 degrees to the south. Notice the early morning sun reflecting off it. Looks almost like an oil spill