Will we continue to be protected under this trough

[boca]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
417 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

.THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ON FRIDAY. WEAK AND
ERRATIC STEERING FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE
INTERIOR FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS
IN THIS REGION WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE NOCTURNAL
PERIOD POPS TO REFLECT THIS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY...WITH AN
EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE
FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT...WITH A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP POPS AND TEMPS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND
ATLANTIC COAST FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.

Sorry I don't see a pattern change with the trough not wanting to go away.We might have an active season but as long as we have this trough will be safe from any storm approaching from the E or SE. This of course is just an opinion.

[storms NC]

We are in a March like pattern here in NC.Utill it changes No storms for the east coast from Fla up.

Deb

[Aquawind]

That "protection" is going to draw another Charlie or Wilma over my coast and the warmest waters in the basin.. The trough can lift at anytime and and even a few days could be enough for a system to hit the east coast. I think the trough trend will continue myself but it could lift out just for heart of the season.

[Windtalker2]

I think the subtropical ridge will win out by the end of next week....just in time for the action & long nights following the storms to begin..... just my opinion.

[windstorm99]

Iam 50/50 on this pattern change happeing in the next few weeks.Boca for us in south florida we could easily see another system taking a similar path to TS ernesto in 2007.Those cuban mountians saved us from a major hurricane.

[boca]

That "protection" is going to draw another Charlie or Wilma over my coast and the warmest waters in the basin.. The trough can lift at anytime and and even a few days could be enough for a system to hit the east coast. I think the trough trend will continue myself but it could lift out just for heart of the season.

In order for that to happen a storm would have to develop in the extreme Western Caribbean and a trough has to amplify or we have a low tracker across the Atlantic which finally starts feeling the pull of the trough like Dennis for example.

[ronjon]

We are in a March like pattern here in NC.Utill it changes No storms for the east coast from Fla up.

Deb

I wouldn't get my hopes up too much just yet. The latest 06Z GFS brings a Hugo like storm into the Carolinas at the end of its run. The model run is two weeks out and almost certainly won't happen but it does point out how quickly the pattern can change from one week to another.

[boca]

Iam 50/50 on this pattern change happeing in the next few weeks.Boca for us in south florida we could easily see another system taking a similar path to TS ernesto in 2007.Those cuban mountians saved us from a major hurricane.

I was thinking that as I was writing the last post but I used Dennis instead of Ernesto since Dennis was well developed.

[flwxwatcher]

We are in a March like pattern here in NC.Utill it changes No storms for the east coast from Fla up.

Deb

I wouldn't get my hopes up too much just yet. The latest 06Z GFS brings a Hugo like storm into the Carolinas at the end of its run. The model run is two weeks out and almost certainly won't happen but it does point out how quickly the pattern can change from one week to another.

The OZ EURO while not showing a Storm is showing high pressure building back towards the Western Atlantic in the longer range. Like you said the pattern can change from week to week.

[Frank2]

I wish more folks would consider it as that - similar to El Nino last year, a feature that keeps a cap over anything bad that can come this way (and gives us needed rain at the same time) is protection sent from the One who creates it...

I look at it this way - in 2005, my deceased sister was able to handle the Wilma crisis fairly well (she and her family went without power for 2 weeks), but, if the same thing had happened exactly one year later, my sister would have been too ill to cope with the situation, so, the protection from a 2006 hurricane was a blessing in our case...

Just the thought of having to evacuate to a hotel for 10 days (as I had to do for Wilma) gives me the chills...

[boca]

Yes this negative NAO pattern that were in is a blessing keeping anything that forms away from the east coast.Last year was El Nino this year the east coast trough.

[storms in NC]

Does any one know if there will be a change in the weather pattern? It is been in this pattern for a while now and no signs of it going away any time soon.


Deb

[srainhoutx]

I wish more folks would consider it as that - similar to El Nino last year, a feature that keeps a cap over anything bad that can come this way (and gives us needed rain at the same time) is protection sent from the One who creates it...

I look at it this way - in 2005, my deceased sister was able to handle the Wilma crisis fairly well (she and her family went without power for 2 weeks), but, if the same thing had happened exactly one year later, my sister would have been too ill to cope with the situation, so, the protection from a 2006 hurricane was a blessing in our case...

Just the thought of having to evacuate to a hotel for 10 days (as I had to do for Wilma) gives me the chills...

great post. After having lived in Lower FL Keys from 2001-2006, La Nina, Trough or what ever keeps systems away in a blessing. Sorry for your loss Frank2.

[fci]

Don't be surprised if this season stays quiet and the pattern remains pretty much the same with no storm activity for South Florida.

Wouldn't be shocking to me.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

One can only pray you are correct.

[Patrick99]

*If* these troughs stick around, they could bring storms right up our way, should any take the low road through the Caribbean.

What protects us from one "type" of storm hitting possibly opens the door for the others.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I can't believe this rain could possibly get worse in SFL...But according to this snipit from Mebourne NWS it looks like things could get nasty..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

.SAT-THU...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. PERSISTENT EASTERN TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON. BIGGER STORY WILL THE INCREASING MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES
MON-WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.OR FORMING ALTOGETHER. SLUG OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS > 2.3 INCHES) DEPICTED BY THE GFS COMBINED
WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS TO DEVELOP A THE FRONT WILL DRIVE THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WELL TO SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA MON-WED. IN
FACT...THE FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FROM PROPAGATING WESTWARD CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW ACROSS
THE SE SUGGEST THAT FLOODING RAINS MAY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

[cycloneye]

boca,I recommend you to read the interesting Jeff Masters blog about this theme of the trough.

Jeff Masters Blog

[ronjon]

I can't believe this rain could possibly get worse in SFL...But according to this snipit from Mebourne NWS it looks like things could get nasty..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

.SAT-THU...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. PERSISTENT EASTERN TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON. BIGGER STORY WILL THE INCREASING MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES
MON-WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.OR FORMING ALTOGETHER. SLUG OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS > 2.3 INCHES) DEPICTED BY THE GFS COMBINED
WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS TO DEVELOP A THE FRONT WILL DRIVE THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WELL TO SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA MON-WED. IN
FACT...THE FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FROM PROPAGATING WESTWARD CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW ACROSS
THE SE SUGGEST THAT FLOODING RAINS MAY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

Actually D5 there are many parts of central and north FL that will welcome this rain. The latest forecast is for a cutoff ULL and possibly a surface low to develop in the NE GOM come early next week. This should bring heavy rain mostly to the north half of the state. I know you guys in S FL have seen a lot of rain this rainy season but its been dry up here in central FL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just look at that thing dipping all the way doen to N FL..Thats Autumn like!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html