This is the one-Well Defined Wave in East Atlantic

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Hurricaneman
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#61 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:17 pm

Im thinking this might be mentioned in the 530 tropical outlook
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa

#62 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:41 pm

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

The Dakar station in Senegal's capital airport is reporting pressures of 1008 mbs as the axis of the wave moves thru.
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa

#63 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:42 pm

In my opinion for the first time i think SAL will not be a problem as its moved to the north.I suspect we could see development from this wave in a few days.
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa=Dakar,1008 mb

#64 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:51 pm

Again this wave of africa looks very impressive to me and my feeling is we are going to see our first major development in the easten atlantic in the coming days if conditions favor it.
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa=Dakar,1008 mb

#65 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:57 pm

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOTT.html

Another observation station in Senegal reports a lower pressure of 1007 mbs.
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Re: This is the one -Wave emerging Africa=Senegal obs,1007 mbs

#66 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:07 pm

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N20W 13N28W 11N38W 10N50W
9N63W. THE E ATLC PORTION OF THE AXIS IS RATHER ACTIVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 250NM S OF
THE AXIS E OF 29W. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO HIGHLY SW TO W IN THIS
VICINITY. METSAT-9 HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE IS NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. THE RAOB FROM BAMAKO MALI ALSO
SHOWED THE WAVE PASSAGE WELL YESTERDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-41W.


2 PM Discussion from TPC.

The wave has not emerged completly Africa,that is why it has not been introduced.
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#67 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:55 pm

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Re: This is the one -Wave emerging Africa=Senegal obs,1007 mbs

#68 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:58 pm

:uarrow: The circulation just off the coast is very evident in that image.
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#69 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:01 pm

yeah i posted earlier that there was strong evidence of a strong surface low

probably the strongest this year so far. must watch closely for either convection to fire or we have another large naked swirl..... i think this one will fire more convection it is much farther south than the last one
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#70 Postby dwg71 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:22 pm

Until I see something sustained, I will say "poof", until proven wrong. I think it is still too early for a long tracking cape verde storm.
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Re:

#71 Postby skysummit » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:24 pm

dwg71 wrote:Until I see something sustained, I will say "poof", until proven wrong. I think it is still too early for a long tracking cape verde storm.


LOL....I don't think I've ever seen this before. "Poof" before it has even begun. This MUST be an S2K record.
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Re: Re:

#72 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:28 pm

skysummit wrote:
dwg71 wrote:Until I see something sustained, I will say "poof", until proven wrong. I think it is still too early for a long tracking cape verde storm.


LOL....I don't think I've ever seen this before. "Poof" before it has even begun. This MUST be an S2K record.


Nope...happens all the time...lets just watch and see, before making conclusions, whether it for or against development...its still too early to tell
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Re: This is the one -Wave emerging Africa=Senegal obs,1007 mbs

#73 Postby Eyewall » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:30 pm

heres a great loop.. if not the best out there for the general public
from what i see we obviously have a HUGE system that has plenty of moisture and a nice sfc low

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi
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Re: This is the one -Wave emerging Africa=Senegal obs,1007 mbs

#74 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:33 pm

Eyewall wrote:heres a great loop.. if not the best out there for the general public
from what i see we obviously have a HUGE system that has plenty of moisture and a nice sfc low

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi

I keep getting a red x...hopefully it goes away
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Re: This is the one -Wave emerging Africa=Senegal obs,1007 mbs

#75 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:37 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Eyewall wrote:heres a great loop.. if not the best out there for the general public
from what i see we obviously have a HUGE system that has plenty of moisture and a nice sfc low

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi

I keep getting a red x...hopefully it goes away



Did you try waiting a bit? It starts out as a red X for me too, but it eventually loads.


Oh, never mind. Wrong site. I am getting the red X on this one too.
Last edited by AnnularCane on Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: This is the one -Wave emerging Africa=Senegal obs,1007 mbs

#76 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:44 pm

I sure hope this one is THE wave that finally developes.I'm getting very tired of every wave coming off of Africa being hyped to no end and less than 24 hours later it disappears
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Re: This is the one -Wave emerging Africa=Senegal obs,1007 mbs

#77 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:58 pm

canegrl04 wrote:I sure hope this one is THE wave that finally developes.I'm getting very tired of every wave coming off of Africa being hyped to no end and less than 24 hours later it disappears



In any given hurricane season hundreds of tropical waves move of africa and only a select few go ahead a become full blown tropical cyclones.
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Re: This is the one -Wave emerging Africa=Senegal obs,1007 mbs

#78 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:06 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This may become tropical depression 3 and
tropical storm chantal in 2-3 days, due to a
ton of moisture, less SAL, if shear lowers,
and water of adequate heat content.
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Re: This is the one -Wave emerging Africa=Senegal obs,1007 mbs

#79 Postby ronjon » Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:23 pm

Boy, it's almost like a monsoon trough is developing off the west coast of Africa. Convection spread over 20 deg longitude.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html
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Re: This is the one -Wave emerging Africa=Senegal obs,1007 mbs

#80 Postby philnyc » Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:17 pm

ronjon wrote:Boy, it's almost like a monsoon trough is developing off the west coast of Africa. Convection spread over 20 deg longitude.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html


I gotta agree. Quite impressive. One still has to think right now, if you look at all of the data, that this is now developing a better than even chance to become a depression within a few days at most.
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