Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

[gatorcane]

Anybody think something may work down to the surface?

From 8:05pm TWD:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA ALONG
35N AND IS PRODUCING MAINLY WEAK TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ESPECIALLY WEAK OVER THE W ATLC
DUE TO THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
SECOND CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 29N72W SW TO
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE AREA HAS SPARKED
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 70W-75W. THE
EASTERN UPPER LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 54W-61W. OVER THE E
ATLC...A FAR-REACHING UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO SW
TO 23N40W THEN TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LYING S OF THAT OVER THE TROPICS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N E
OF 50W IS KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY DRY OVER THE SUBTROPICS. IN THE
TROPICS...LOW-LEVEL CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED
THE ITCZ NWD TO BETWEEN 12N-14N FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER
W AFRICA APPEARS TO BE CHANGING THIS PATTERN WITH STRONGER
NORTHERLIES DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST...AND THE ITCZ IS PLUNGING
S TO ABOUT 8N INTO SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA.

[Cyclone1]

CMC calls for a weak low to form soon.

[marcane_1973]

I was about to ask the same thing. I have been watching this the last couple of days. It seems today though it has become more circular in size. Anyone wanna comment on the atmospheric conditions around this convection???

[gatorcane]

8:05AM TWD..

Nothing really new to report with this feature buts it hanging around.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DIP FROM THE E US
TOWARD THE N GULF COAST AND INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF 77W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTEND THROUGH 32N58W SW TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
20N65W WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N73W TO
BEYOND 32N71W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 69W-74W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 27N FROM 70W-76W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N63W TO 32N58W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 24N63W TO 30N55W.
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION
PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

[Thunder44]

CMC calls for a weak low to form soon.

I noticed the GFS and NAM also form a low out there. But that doesn't always mean there will be TC development.

[gatorcane]

links please?

[gatorcane]

ULL Winds are favorable for something to form in this area:

[Meso]

[gatorcane]

I am surprised more people on commenting on this litte feature, the conditions are right for development and convection appears to be increasing...not to mention it is in our backyard.

In addition the global models are starting to show an interest in it albeit they are keeping it weak at the moment (but you never know).

[storms in NC]

I don't think any thing will happen. JMO

[Aric Dunn]

i have been watching that area fro a few days now.. there has been convection consistently refiring everyday and evening but have yet to see anything at the surface pressure are high
so its going to take some more time before we get something there . but east of there is a upper and a surface trough that appears to have a small surface low with it.. but either since its been sitting there for more than 3 days now i was wondering if something eventually take shape

[Berwick Bay]

Let me ask a question. I'm a little confused by the coordinates for the trough given in that posted Discussion. I see the active weather along what appears to be the trough off the N Fl coast. But I want to know about the more "circular" looking storms further south in the Bahamas. Is this part of the area thats being watched? One of the coordinates mentioned was 23N which would be in this area, but most of what I read seemed to be concerned with the area further north. What about this area down south in the Bahamas themselves?

[Aric Dunn]

i would say east of the bahamas

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Aric, as you say "east of the Bahamas". Would you think this area or the one further north might have more potential at this time? This area east of the Bahamas would obviously be of more concern to a gulf coast resident like myself.

[Aric Dunn]

not sure what further north you are talking about the only thing is a very sheared surface trough near the east coast.

[Aric Dunn]

the nam

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think the area East of the Bahamas would be a corcern for the GOM because of the trough digging down this system would move NNE and be a fish.

[gatorcane]

2:05pm TWD:

"clear cyclonic turning"

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...BAHAMAS...AND WRN ATLC W OF 76W. THIS REGION IS
UNDER STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER
THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING EXTENDING E FROM THE GULF ALONG 26N
OUT TO NEAR 70W. A SFC TROUGH ALSO ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 30N72W
AND CONTINUES S TO 24N73W. LOW CLOUD MOTIONS SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE VICINITY...WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 68W-75W. AN UPPER
LOW HAS REMAINED QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 28N60W. A SFC TROUGH IS
ALSO ANALYZED IN THIS VICINITY ALONG 31N55W 26N60W. LIGHTNING
DATA SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO THE
REGION FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 57W-62W. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING
AND ABUNDANT DRY/STABLE AIR DOMINATES MUCH OF THE E ATLC. A SFC
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N40W ALSO DOMINATES THE
E ATLC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES N OF 15N W OF 50W.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah that is the area coming of the east coast that they speak of near 30 n..that has the cyclonic turning

[gatorcane]

good point...I am editing the post...