Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[Steve]

Here's a shot out my dirty window just before that band of red started coming through. Now it's pouring.

Steve

[Aric Dunn]

The surface low is heading SSW and is about to exit back into the gulf near corpus Cristi.

if it can stay offshore then maybe something could happen .. steering currents are weak so some erratic motion could easily bring it back over water.
but im not going to bet on it

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Aric Dunn]

did i say corpus Christi i meant the port o'conner area

[jasons2k]

To me it looks like it is headed ESE and coming back into the GOM @ Matagorda.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If it is really heading back toward the GOM, then things might get interesting. I could see this easily spinning up into a TD givin enough time over water.

BTW: Pressures have been dropping at most sights across the upper TX coast over the last 2 hours (after a brief rise earlier).

[srainhoutx]

Radar loop seems to indicate WNW of Freeport and moving W slooowly.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[lrak]

I've been looking at the CIMSS site that gives all the steering currents, just a little confused

Everyone keeps saying LLC is key to formation, I've got that part LOL. When I look at the steering currents on the http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html is the top part of the data set that says Steering Layer 700-850 for TC MSLP of 1000-1010 millibars for a system that has a LLC or just forming to a TD? Can it be for a trough of low pressure or for BLOBS? The acronym TC on that site I would suspect means tropical cyclone

With this crazy BLOB we've had in the Gulf for these past 5 days I've been trying to understand a little more, so be gentle with the scientific jargon, because I will ignore your response. I've had my 6 years of college And some of you guys and gals live on this site due to the post count, and have learned a great deal. I can only pop in a few times a day, and thats it. I'm billing a client as I type

Also how can this little system near Houston move SW, our winds down here are out of the N. I thought they would be out of the S. I'm just abit confused

[Extremeweatherguy]

In the last 3 hours the pressue at Victoria has fallen from 1014.3mb down to 1012.5mb...and in the last 2 hours, the pressure at Galveston has fallen from 1014.5mb down to 1013.4mb. Houston has also had a nice pressure fall. In 3 hours IAH has fallen from 1015mb down to 1013.5mb.

[dwg71]

It certainly hasn't been the rain event that was forecast 24 hours or so ago. Lets see what the evening holds and into tomorrow.

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed....Nothing serious...Had heavy rain in Org/Beaumont early Friday morning but nothing more after that except a few little heavy showers...Mainly constant drizzle.

We dont need anything heavy now. Everything is nice and soggy.

[HeeBGBz]

This was the cloud cover this morning in Biloxi.





Looking east.



Looking south.

Sure seemed like we were on the edge of something building in the gulf.

[Thunder44]

The surface low is heading SSW and is about to exit back into the gulf near corpus Cristi.

if it can stay offshore then maybe something could happen .. steering currents are weak so some erratic motion could easily bring it back over water.
but im not going to bet on it

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

From looking at this visible loop, the center looks to be nearly stationary and well inland just north of Matagorda Bay. The surface center looks less-defined than this morning, on satellite and surface obs and and convection has been shifting further east from it and decreasing this afternoon. I see a weakening system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

In the last 3 hours the pressue at Victoria has fallen from 1014.3mb down to 1012.5mb...and in the last 2 hours, the pressure at Galveston has fallen from 1014.5mb down to 1013.4mb. Houston has also had a nice pressure fall. In 3 hours IAH has fallen from 1015mb down to 1013.5mb.

The surface trof axis appears to be moving back inland now. It had been just off the coast. That would account for the falling pressures at coastal cities (along with diurnal effects - pressure inland normally falls in the afternoon).

[wxman57]

I've been looking at the CIMSS site that gives all the steering currents, just a little confused

Everyone keeps saying LLC is key to formation, I've got that part LOL. When I look at the steering currents on the http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html is the top part of the data set that says Steering Layer 700-850 for TC MSLP of 1000-1010 millibars for a system that has a LLC or just forming to a TD? Can it be for a trough of low pressure or for BLOBS? The acronym TC on that site I would suspect means tropical cyclone

With this crazy BLOB we've had in the Gulf for these past 5 days I've been trying to understand a little more, so be gentle with the scientific jargon, because I will ignore your response. I've had my 6 years of college And some of you guys and gals live on this site due to the post count, and have learned a great deal. I can only pop in a few times a day, and thats it. I'm billing a client as I type

Also how can this little system near Houston move SW, our winds down here are out of the N. I thought they would be out of the S. I'm just abit confused

The lower level steering currents are good with tropical waves, too. Note the weak gradient over this wave, though. That's why it's not moving much. Not much to move it.

[tailgater]

The surface low is heading SSW and is about to exit back into the gulf near corpus Cristi.

if it can stay offshore then maybe something could happen .. steering currents are weak so some erratic motion could easily bring it back over water.
but im not going to bet on it

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

From looking at this visible loop, the center looks to be nearly stationary and well inland just north of Matagorda Bay. The surface center looks less-defined than this morning, on satellite and surface obs and and convection has been shifting further east from it and decreasing this afternoon. I see a weakening system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

I agree nearly stationary. Also looks like the ULL has decapitated(sp?) it again.
Check this out ob
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=gpst2
That's a 4.5 mb drop in the last 24 hrs.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 272114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...HAS
MOVED INLAND. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[lrak]

Thank you WXMAN57. I just noticed the gradient graph to the right of the page, whoops.

So if this wave was just S of N.O. then it would of been inland yesterday because the tight swirls or the color on the graphs?

Sorry for crummy questions. Last one, promise.

[vaffie]

The pressure over the Gulf proper is now lower than anywhere on land--the low has either moved south or reformed to the south over the water as a result of the convection.

27/21 42019 27.9 -95.4 26.8 23.8 180 16 G 17 180 17 1012.0 -2.1 28.2 1.5 7 42019

[Stratosphere747]

I don't see any evidence that the low is back over water. If anything it has moved further inland and is not as defined.

[srainhoutx]

Wharton, TX obs...


Conditions at Jul 27, 2007 - 05:25 PM EDTJul 27, 2007 - 04:25 PM CDTJul 27, 2007 - 03:25 PM MDTJul 27, 2007 - 02:25 PM PDTJul 27, 2007 - 01:25 PM ADTJul 27, 2007 - 12:25 PM HDT
2007.07.27 2125 UTC
Wind from the N (010 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 96.8 F (36.0 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob KARM 272125Z AUTO 01005KT 10SM BKN023 BKN032 OVC039 30/25 A2988 RMK AO2

Sugarland, TX...
Conditions at Jul 27, 2007 - 05:17 PM EDTJul 27, 2007 - 04:17 PM CDTJul 27, 2007 - 03:17 PM MDTJul 27, 2007 - 02:17 PM PDTJul 27, 2007 - 01:17 PM ADTJul 27, 2007 - 12:17 PM HDT
2007.07.27 2117 UTC
Wind from the ENE (070 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.89 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob KSGR 272117Z 07008KT 10SM SCT016 SCT030 SCT040 28/24 A2989 RMK AO2


Lake Jackson, TX...

Conditions at Jul 27, 2007 - 05:21 PM EDTJul 27, 2007 - 04:21 PM CDTJul 27, 2007 - 03:21 PM MDTJul 27, 2007 - 02:21 PM PDTJul 27, 2007 - 01:21 PM ADTJul 27, 2007 - 12:21 PM HDT
2007.07.27 2121 UTC
Wind from the S (180 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob KLBX 272121Z AUTO 18011KT 10SM SCT025 SCT036 BKN100 28/23 A2988 RMK AO2