This is the one-Well Defined Wave in East Atlantic

[dwg71]

Boy, it's almost like a monsoon trough is developing off the west coast of Africa. Convection spread over 20 deg longitude.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html

I gotta agree. Quite impressive. One still has to think right now, if you look at all of the data, that this is now developing a better than even chance to become a depression within a few days at most.

Even money? I'll take "No development" for $500 Alex , It has a long way to go, as of now it looks like the other 20 waves that have emerged, its still only July 27th, I think its too early.

[Opal storm]

IMHO I don't see anything impressive near Africa, looks like the ITCZ has gotten thicker but no organization of anything. I still say wait a week or two before we see anything out there.

[philnyc]

Boy, it's almost like a monsoon trough is developing off the west coast of Africa. Convection spread over 20 deg longitude.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html

I gotta agree. Quite impressive. One still has to think right now, if you look at all of the data, that this is now developing a better than even chance to become a depression within a few days at most.

Even money? I'll take "No development" for $500 Alex , It has a long way to go, as of now it looks like the other 20 waves that have emerged, its still only July 27th, I think its too early.

LOL! But first of all, all of the other waves so far had a LOT of SAL and mid-level dry air along with a weaker MLAEJ; this has plenty of mid-level moisture:


with much less SAL than any time before now this season; in fact almost none due west of it:


Also, remember that when you say it's too early, what criteria are you using? You can't use climatology only because some seasons start earlier than others. If you had used climatology in 1995 or 2005, you'd have been wrong. This season was forecast to be well above normal and to start early, due to the strong MLAEJ, lighter trade winds, better 850mb vorticity in the MDR, and warmer SSTs, to name a few. So one would expect the Cape Verde season to start early this year.
I tend to be skeptical myself as well at this time of year, but to be honest, I can't find much going against this wave right now. And it's what we love to do - speculate.

[cheezyWXguy]

And to those who think the its fading out right now, it is common to see convection die down a little as it moves offshore. It is just feeling the effects of moving out into the ocean, but it should soon begin to flare up again as most waves do, whether they develop or not

[hcane27]

Factors I see against development ....

1. marginal SST's
2. westerly/southwesterly wind shear at least 20 kts or more
3. SAL tends to be pulled out on the northern periphery of large waves
4. SAL tends to move a little faster than the systems ... allowing for entrainment from the north and west
5. proximity to the ITCZ

just my 2 cents .....

[philnyc]

And to those who think the its fading out right now, it is common to see convection die down a little as it moves offshore. It is just feeling the effects of moving out into the ocean, but it should soon begin to flare up again as most waves do, whether they develop or not

Yes, cheezy. Convection also dies down during the day but then increases overnight as the cloudtops cool and create a bigger vertical temperature difference.
The biggest impediments to this one will be that, although there's no SAL to its west, there is plenty not far to the north of it - if that surges southwestward in front of the wave, it will get ingested and "poof". But there's no indications that is going to happen as of now. And the last visible images showed an LLC has just moved off of the African coast.

[cheezyWXguy]

whoa...look at this TC formation probability map...over the last day its shot up quite a bit:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/tatfpr.gif

[Meso]

Speaking of formation probablity

[philnyc]

Factors I see against development ....

1. marginal SST's
2. westerly/southwesterly wind shear at least 20 kts or more
3. SAL tends to be pulled out on the northern periphery of large waves
4. SAL tends to move a little faster than the systems ... allowing for entrainment from the north and west
5. proximity to the ITCZ

just my 2 cents .....

agreed on the SAL factor and proximity to the ITCZ; sometimes a strong monsoon trough will rob energy from the low developing along it...

But SSTs are fine - they've been coming up in the last few days:


And you are right about the shear, although it's hard to gauge. It's around 10 knots where an LLC appears to be developing, but over 20 knots just south of there:

[windstorm99]

Thats 3 runs one after another from the ECMWF showing development of the african coast.

[punkyg]

I give this tropical wave a 40% chance of developing into a td.

Off-topic posted edited by mf_dolphin

[MGC]

I don't see anything close to being a threat of development any time soon in the CV region....MGC

[cycloneye]

I know this is way!!!!!!!!! off topic, but its naruto and a stupid funny song i want yall to listen too. I'm gonna play on my wii.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WF4maEt6bcg

I give this tropical wave a 40% chance of developing into a td.

Please,dont post off-topic things in this forum.

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 34W/35W S OF 17N ON THE
1800 UTC SFC MAP BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SSMI-DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE SOME TURNING IS NOTED ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. LOOKING FURTHER EAST...A
WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST MOVING OUT OF AFRICA AND WILL
PROBABLY BE INTRODUCED ON THE 0000 UTC SFC MAP. THE RAOB FROM
BAMAKO MALI SHOWED THE WAVE PASSAGE WELL YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOW GOOD TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N.

8 PM discussion from TPC.

[AnnularCane]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 34W/35W S OF 17N ON THE
1800 UTC SFC MAP BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SSMI-DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE SOME TURNING IS NOTED ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. LOOKING FURTHER EAST...A
WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST MOVING OUT OF AFRICA AND WILL
PROBABLY BE INTRODUCED ON THE 0000 UTC SFC MAP. THE RAOB FROM
BAMAKO MALI SHOWED THE WAVE PASSAGE WELL YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOW GOOD TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N.

8 PM discussion from TPC.

Sounds quite interesting.

[philnyc]

[quote=

Sounds quite interesting.[/quote]

Yeah. By tomorrow the models may have a better handle on it.

[cycloneye]

Full disk 00:00z Image.

For those who haved not registered to this site to get free images here is the link.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/registerql.html

[philnyc]

Full disk 00:00z Image.

For those who haved not registered to this site to get free images here is the link.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/registerql.html

Thanks, cycloneye! That is a great site. I found them last year while taking tropical meteorology. The high resolution images are amazing. As far as that wave goes, it sure looks like some turning is going on (as the NHC discussion said). The bottom line is that whether this one develops or not, the CV season looks like it will be really active this year.

[Cyclone1]

Whoa are we tracking the remains of COSME? LOL
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2007/COSME/track.gif

[cycloneye]

Whoa are we tracking the remains of COSME? LOL
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2007/COSME/track.gif

You posted in the wrong thread as this one is for the Wave off Africa.