Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[wxman57]

The pressure over the Gulf proper is now lower than anywhere on land--the low has either moved south or reformed to the south over the water as a result of the convection.

27/21 42019 27.9 -95.4 26.8 23.8 180 16 G 17 180 17 1012.0 -2.1 28.2 1.5 7 42019

Here's a 21Z plot, all 22Z marine obs aren't in yet. You can see that the low no longer exists, but the surface trof is well inland. Lowest pressures and the wind shift are inland.

[wxman57]

Thank you WXMAN57. I just noticed the gradient graph to the right of the page, whoops.

So if this wave was just S of N.O. then it would of been inland yesterday because the tight swirls or the color on the graphs?

Sorry for crummy questions. Last one, promise.

Generally, correct. Steering currents are a bit stronger across SE LA. But this isn't so much of a typical tropical wave any more.

[jasons2k]

[cycloneye]

[Steve]

>>It certainly hasn't been the rain event that was forecast 24 hours or so ago. Lets see what the evening holds and into tomorrow.

Depends on where you are. There's 2"-8" from New Orleans westward. Couple that with the rainfall yesterday along the Texas Coast and add the assumption that this has been a daytime system for the last 3 days, there should be stations reporting 2-4" or more tomorrow. This wave delivered IMHO.

Steve

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It certainly hasn't been the rain event that was forecast 24 hours or so ago. Lets see what the evening holds and into tomorrow.

Where do you live..We've had 2-4 inches along the upper Texas coast.

[jasons2k]

Well here I've had just a few sprinkles, barely a trace, hardly what was forecasted here.

[Cyclone1]

Well here I've had just a few sprinkles, barely a trace, hardly what was forecasted here.

Welcome to what I call, Central Florida Syndrome. "99.3% chance of rain today, tornado watch issued, golf ball sized hail" and yet somehow, nothin. (hypothetical situation)

[Steve]

>>Well here I've had just a few sprinkles, barely a trace, hardly what was forecasted here.

So far it's been all east and south of you which may still be the case. You're no neophyte, so I'm sure you've looked at the dopper estimates out of H/Gal, LC and NO/BR today and yesterday. There has been tons of rain so far with probably more to come at least tomorrow and maybe even Sunday.

Steve

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We've had 2-4 inches pretty widespread over this part of SE Texas.

[HouTXmetro]

This system is pretty much dead for tropical purposes, but had to note after avoiding the rain for most of the day, showers are developing in Houston tonight.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING LOW OVER
INLAND TEXAS...CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM...SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[southerngale]

We've had 2-4 inches pretty widespread over this part of SE Texas.

Is that all you've gotten in Orange? Radar estimates show at least 6 inches in some areas of SE TX today, particularly between Port Arthur and Orange, maybe part of eastern Beaumont as well... it's hard to pinpoint exactly where. And that's just today! All of the rain we received yesterday isn't included in those storm totals, since they started very early this morning. We had several inches yesterday between Beaumont and Lumberton, and it didn't stop raining all day today, although a lot of today's was light, with heavier stuff at times. It's STILL raining! No flooding where I am though, although I talked to someone in Orange a couple of hours ago and they said there was some flooding where they were.

[inda_iwall]

****POOF*******

No storms just yet, even with all the -removed- it still couldnt get going

[Steve]

>>No storms just yet, even with all the -removed- it still couldnt get going

edited reply:

nevermind

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We've had 2-4 inches pretty widespread over this part of SE Texas.

Is that all you've gotten in Orange? Radar estimates show at least 6 inches in some areas of SE TX today, particularly between Port Arthur and Orange, maybe part of eastern Beaumont as well... it's hard to pinpoint exactly where. And that's just today! All of the rain we received yesterday isn't included in those storm totals, since they started very early this morning. We had several inches yesterday between Beaumont and Lumberton, and it didn't stop raining all day today, although a lot of today's was light, with heavier stuff at times. It's STILL raining! No flooding where I am though, although I talked to someone in Orange a couple of hours ago and they said there was some flooding where they were.

As of 11:PM i've had 4 inches. We had more heavy rains tonight.

[jasons2k]

They got a lot in Beaumont-Port Arthur itself and LA, but for almost all of SE Texas this was a complete, total bust. I fertilized my lawn Thursday night anticipating the mother of all floods. The fertilzer, which has to be watered-in, hasn't even had a chance to start dissolving yet. Unless something happens quick I'm going to have to run my sprinklers today so my lawn won't burn to death, if it already hasn't.....

Here are the storm totals before it was reset this AM. Aside from a blip over Beaumont and another blip near Woodville (which aren't even NWS-HGX zones), most places saw hardly anything.

[stormy70]

I was hoping to get some rain out of this down in Alabama.

[Steve]

Got another 1.5" in in western parts of Lafourche Parish (where I am) this morning with more on the way. = not a bust in South Central LA.

Steve

[Brent]

I was hoping to get some rain out of this down in Alabama.

I'm up in the North Central part of the state and have not had more than two-tenths of an inch of rain TOTAL since July 10th. On top of that, we were already in one of the worst droughts ever before. We've got water bans and the grass looks dead again.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_southeast.htm

I am just below the bullseye which is the highest level(and the only place in the entire U.S. under it).