Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
skywarn
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 134
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: Metairie, Louisiana

Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"

#1 Postby skywarn » Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:18 pm

Below is a special report issued by Accuweather today. If you click on the link there was a 5 minute video issued also:

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?

Hurricane Season Far From Over
Posted 2007-07-27
The tropics remain quiet midway through the summer of 2007, and that has many people thinking that hurricane forecasters, including AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, were wrong in their forecasts for the 2007 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season.

There have been only two named tropical storms to date, including a subtropical storm (Andrea) that lasted 36 hours off the southeast Atlantic Coast and a tropical storm (Barry) that was downgraded to a tropical depression before making landfall on June 2 near Tampa, Fla.

As a result of a quiet period lasting almost two months, many residents of hurricane-prone areas may have let down their guard, which could be a mistake.

While many hurricane forecasters have changed their forecasts to reflect their forecast of a reduced number of storms, Bastardi and his team of forecasters have not deviated from the forecast issued on May 8, 2007.

In May, AccuWeather.com called for a total of 13 or 14 storms in the Atlantic Basin, with three or more likely to be major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Today, Bastardi says while that forecast has not changed, the real forecast issue is where the storms will go and how strong they will be when they get there.

Bastardi believes six or seven of the storms could strike the U.S. coast, with Florida being the primary target. However, he cautions the majority of the landfalls could occur from the Mississippi River delta to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

A major concern for the AccuWeather.com hurricane forecast team is the potential for late-developing storms that intensify close to land rather than over open water. There are four factors that will establish that scenario:

* The reversal of the El Niño to a neutral or La Niña
* The warm cycle of the AMO that began in the mid-90s
* The very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean
* The reversal of upper level winds to a direction more conducive to intense storms

Bastardi believes the tropics will continue to be relatively inactive for the next two to three weeks, which would bolster his forecast of fewer storms in the eastern Atlantic and more concern to the west.

Historically, the heart of the hurricane season does not begin until mid-August, and Bastardi feels this season is a very close fit to the analog years. "It appears to be a fit that matches our ideas. However, let me be clear, anything before the 15th of August, perhaps even the 20th, is gravy. After that, it may be a track race."
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#2 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:25 pm

13-14 storms with 3+ majors still sounds right to me. That is just slightly above normal and is well within reach over the next 2-3 months. Also, 6-7 storms making landfall in the U.S. (including Barry) doesn't seem out of the question either....especially if the bermuda high builds in more in the coming weeks. Of course, many fine details could be wrong with this or any forecast, but the main message (that the season is far from over) is probably correct.

BTW: keep in mind that Bastardi counts a double landfall by a single storm as being 2 hits. So when he says 6-7 landfalls, he could be talking about only 3-5 storms..but some with multiple landfalls.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#3 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:32 pm

Holy cow..I just watched JB for free...I think..Maybe ill get 100.00 bill in the mail later..LOL :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:

Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"

#4 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 8:51 pm

Cant find any reason to disagree with his update...Things in normal season dont pick up for another 2-3 weeks.Adrian
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"

#5 Postby cpdaman » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:31 pm

does that mean

that its possible a rogue storm to occurs before the 15 or 20'th but total development will be slow , and that after that may get heated up quickly

i took the short bus
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"

#6 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:39 pm

cpdaman wrote:does that mean

that its possible a rogue storm to occurs before the 15 or 20'th but total development will be slow , and that after that may get heated up quickly

i took the short bus

JB thinks a storm or two is possible before mid August, but the real action should arrive after the 15th. He thinks there could be a "track race" of Activity starting later in August and lasting through September where we could see one storm after another.
0 likes   

jaxfladude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1249
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
Location: Jacksonville, Fla

Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"

#7 Postby jaxfladude » Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:02 pm

I WILL BELIEVE THAT IF AND THAT IS A BIG "IF" IT TURNS OUT TO BE SO.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#8 Postby Chacor » Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:18 pm

I'm sorry...

Hurricane Season Far From Over


They do mean "Hurricane Season Far From Having Begun", yes?

The tropics remain quiet midway through the summer of 2007, and that has many people thinking that hurricane forecasters, including AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, were wrong in their forecasts for the 2007 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season.


It's NOT midway through summer. We're not even into the statistically most active month of the year yet. We're ahead of many active years (including 2004) right now. Hardly "remaining quiet".
0 likes   

User avatar
Beam
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 292
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:06 pm

#9 Postby Beam » Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:34 pm

If all they're saying is that the season is far from over, I've just got one thing to say:

Duh.
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"

#10 Postby cpdaman » Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:51 pm

i guess they are also saying there is no large scale pattern change in the near future that wil cause anyting more than one storm to occur over the next 3 weeks
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"

#11 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jul 28, 2007 12:33 am

cpdaman wrote:i guess they are also saying there is no large scale pattern change in the near future that wil cause anyting more than one storm to occur over the next 3 weeks
JB's main reason for predicting only a couple of possible storms between now and mid August has more to do with the fact that we are entering a downward motion period for most of the Atlantic. These upward and downward motion trends are cyclical, and we can expect to enter another upward period around mid August. When that happens, JB thinks the games will begin. It doesn't really have much to do with the overall pattern though.

BTW: In the short term, JB has mentioned that the waves off Africa do bear watching.
0 likes   

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1742
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

#12 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:16 pm

"Bastardi believes six or seven of the storms could strike the U.S. coast, with Florida being the primary target. However, he cautions the majority of the landfalls could occur from the Mississippi River delta to the Outer Banks of North Carolina."

Hey, I thought we were supposed to be out of it this year! I think we'll go with that nola forcaster that stated the east coast is out this year :)
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2812
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

#13 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:03 pm

Indeed :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#14 Postby Steve » Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:51 pm

I thought that the video seemed reasonable. I'm not paying a dime for anything they have anymore after their fiasco with now voted-out Senator Santorum, but if they want to give me their take for free, I certainly don't mind indulging. I learned more from Joe than anyone the 4 or 5 years I watched his videos and the two summers I bought the premium serivce.

Steve
0 likes   

Jim Hughes
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:52 pm
Location: Martinsburg West Virginia

#15 Postby Jim Hughes » Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:08 pm

I have been looking at some more relationships , or indicators, between the stratosphere and the AMO intensity level / ATL season.

This new indicator points toward a continuation of a higher level this year. This particular indicator was one of the strongest yet but I am not confident about using it alone.

This is off the top of my head. The small analog data base contains about 10 years and the total number of hurricanes averaged out to about nine a year and there were slightly less than four majors on average.

I believe there was 18 Cat 4's and seven Cat 5's. And some of these strong systems made landfall.
0 likes   

User avatar
DanKellFla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1291
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:02 pm
Location: Lake Worth, Florida

Re:

#16 Postby DanKellFla » Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:11 pm

Beam wrote:If all they're saying is that the season is far from over, I've just got one thing to say:

Duh.


My thoughts exactly.

Just wait and see... Could be busy, could be quiet.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, Lizzytiz1, redingtonbeach and 47 guests