Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"
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Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"
Below is a special report issued by Accuweather today. If you click on the link there was a 5 minute video issued also:
http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?
Hurricane Season Far From Over
Posted 2007-07-27
The tropics remain quiet midway through the summer of 2007, and that has many people thinking that hurricane forecasters, including AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, were wrong in their forecasts for the 2007 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season.
There have been only two named tropical storms to date, including a subtropical storm (Andrea) that lasted 36 hours off the southeast Atlantic Coast and a tropical storm (Barry) that was downgraded to a tropical depression before making landfall on June 2 near Tampa, Fla.
As a result of a quiet period lasting almost two months, many residents of hurricane-prone areas may have let down their guard, which could be a mistake.
While many hurricane forecasters have changed their forecasts to reflect their forecast of a reduced number of storms, Bastardi and his team of forecasters have not deviated from the forecast issued on May 8, 2007.
In May, AccuWeather.com called for a total of 13 or 14 storms in the Atlantic Basin, with three or more likely to be major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Today, Bastardi says while that forecast has not changed, the real forecast issue is where the storms will go and how strong they will be when they get there.
Bastardi believes six or seven of the storms could strike the U.S. coast, with Florida being the primary target. However, he cautions the majority of the landfalls could occur from the Mississippi River delta to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
A major concern for the AccuWeather.com hurricane forecast team is the potential for late-developing storms that intensify close to land rather than over open water. There are four factors that will establish that scenario:
* The reversal of the El Niño to a neutral or La Niña
* The warm cycle of the AMO that began in the mid-90s
* The very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean
* The reversal of upper level winds to a direction more conducive to intense storms
Bastardi believes the tropics will continue to be relatively inactive for the next two to three weeks, which would bolster his forecast of fewer storms in the eastern Atlantic and more concern to the west.
Historically, the heart of the hurricane season does not begin until mid-August, and Bastardi feels this season is a very close fit to the analog years. "It appears to be a fit that matches our ideas. However, let me be clear, anything before the 15th of August, perhaps even the 20th, is gravy. After that, it may be a track race."
http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?
Hurricane Season Far From Over
Posted 2007-07-27
The tropics remain quiet midway through the summer of 2007, and that has many people thinking that hurricane forecasters, including AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, were wrong in their forecasts for the 2007 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season.
There have been only two named tropical storms to date, including a subtropical storm (Andrea) that lasted 36 hours off the southeast Atlantic Coast and a tropical storm (Barry) that was downgraded to a tropical depression before making landfall on June 2 near Tampa, Fla.
As a result of a quiet period lasting almost two months, many residents of hurricane-prone areas may have let down their guard, which could be a mistake.
While many hurricane forecasters have changed their forecasts to reflect their forecast of a reduced number of storms, Bastardi and his team of forecasters have not deviated from the forecast issued on May 8, 2007.
In May, AccuWeather.com called for a total of 13 or 14 storms in the Atlantic Basin, with three or more likely to be major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Today, Bastardi says while that forecast has not changed, the real forecast issue is where the storms will go and how strong they will be when they get there.
Bastardi believes six or seven of the storms could strike the U.S. coast, with Florida being the primary target. However, he cautions the majority of the landfalls could occur from the Mississippi River delta to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
A major concern for the AccuWeather.com hurricane forecast team is the potential for late-developing storms that intensify close to land rather than over open water. There are four factors that will establish that scenario:
* The reversal of the El Niño to a neutral or La Niña
* The warm cycle of the AMO that began in the mid-90s
* The very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean
* The reversal of upper level winds to a direction more conducive to intense storms
Bastardi believes the tropics will continue to be relatively inactive for the next two to three weeks, which would bolster his forecast of fewer storms in the eastern Atlantic and more concern to the west.
Historically, the heart of the hurricane season does not begin until mid-August, and Bastardi feels this season is a very close fit to the analog years. "It appears to be a fit that matches our ideas. However, let me be clear, anything before the 15th of August, perhaps even the 20th, is gravy. After that, it may be a track race."
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- Extremeweatherguy
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13-14 storms with 3+ majors still sounds right to me. That is just slightly above normal and is well within reach over the next 2-3 months. Also, 6-7 storms making landfall in the U.S. (including Barry) doesn't seem out of the question either....especially if the bermuda high builds in more in the coming weeks. Of course, many fine details could be wrong with this or any forecast, but the main message (that the season is far from over) is probably correct.
BTW: keep in mind that Bastardi counts a double landfall by a single storm as being 2 hits. So when he says 6-7 landfalls, he could be talking about only 3-5 storms..but some with multiple landfalls.
BTW: keep in mind that Bastardi counts a double landfall by a single storm as being 2 hits. So when he says 6-7 landfalls, he could be talking about only 3-5 storms..but some with multiple landfalls.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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- windstorm99
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Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"
Cant find any reason to disagree with his update...Things in normal season dont pick up for another 2-3 weeks.Adrian
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Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"
does that mean
that its possible a rogue storm to occurs before the 15 or 20'th but total development will be slow , and that after that may get heated up quickly
i took the short bus
that its possible a rogue storm to occurs before the 15 or 20'th but total development will be slow , and that after that may get heated up quickly
i took the short bus
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"
cpdaman wrote:does that mean
that its possible a rogue storm to occurs before the 15 or 20'th but total development will be slow , and that after that may get heated up quickly
i took the short bus
JB thinks a storm or two is possible before mid August, but the real action should arrive after the 15th. He thinks there could be a "track race" of Activity starting later in August and lasting through September where we could see one storm after another.
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Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"
I WILL BELIEVE THAT IF AND THAT IS A BIG "IF" IT TURNS OUT TO BE SO.
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I'm sorry...
They do mean "Hurricane Season Far From Having Begun", yes?
It's NOT midway through summer. We're not even into the statistically most active month of the year yet. We're ahead of many active years (including 2004) right now. Hardly "remaining quiet".
Hurricane Season Far From Over
They do mean "Hurricane Season Far From Having Begun", yes?
The tropics remain quiet midway through the summer of 2007, and that has many people thinking that hurricane forecasters, including AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, were wrong in their forecasts for the 2007 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season.
It's NOT midway through summer. We're not even into the statistically most active month of the year yet. We're ahead of many active years (including 2004) right now. Hardly "remaining quiet".
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Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"
i guess they are also saying there is no large scale pattern change in the near future that wil cause anyting more than one storm to occur over the next 3 weeks
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Accuweather States "Hurricane Season Far From Over"
JB's main reason for predicting only a couple of possible storms between now and mid August has more to do with the fact that we are entering a downward motion period for most of the Atlantic. These upward and downward motion trends are cyclical, and we can expect to enter another upward period around mid August. When that happens, JB thinks the games will begin. It doesn't really have much to do with the overall pattern though.cpdaman wrote:i guess they are also saying there is no large scale pattern change in the near future that wil cause anyting more than one storm to occur over the next 3 weeks
BTW: In the short term, JB has mentioned that the waves off Africa do bear watching.
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"Bastardi believes six or seven of the storms could strike the U.S. coast, with Florida being the primary target. However, he cautions the majority of the landfalls could occur from the Mississippi River delta to the Outer Banks of North Carolina."
Hey, I thought we were supposed to be out of it this year! I think we'll go with that nola forcaster that stated the east coast is out this year
Hey, I thought we were supposed to be out of it this year! I think we'll go with that nola forcaster that stated the east coast is out this year

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- Hybridstorm_November2001
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I thought that the video seemed reasonable. I'm not paying a dime for anything they have anymore after their fiasco with now voted-out Senator Santorum, but if they want to give me their take for free, I certainly don't mind indulging. I learned more from Joe than anyone the 4 or 5 years I watched his videos and the two summers I bought the premium serivce.
Steve
Steve
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I have been looking at some more relationships , or indicators, between the stratosphere and the AMO intensity level / ATL season.
This new indicator points toward a continuation of a higher level this year. This particular indicator was one of the strongest yet but I am not confident about using it alone.
This is off the top of my head. The small analog data base contains about 10 years and the total number of hurricanes averaged out to about nine a year and there were slightly less than four majors on average.
I believe there was 18 Cat 4's and seven Cat 5's. And some of these strong systems made landfall.
This new indicator points toward a continuation of a higher level this year. This particular indicator was one of the strongest yet but I am not confident about using it alone.
This is off the top of my head. The small analog data base contains about 10 years and the total number of hurricanes averaged out to about nine a year and there were slightly less than four majors on average.
I believe there was 18 Cat 4's and seven Cat 5's. And some of these strong systems made landfall.
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- DanKellFla
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Re:
Beam wrote:If all they're saying is that the season is far from over, I've just got one thing to say:
Duh.
My thoughts exactly.
Just wait and see... Could be busy, could be quiet.
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