Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

[Stormavoider]

It looks good on this NASA LOOP.

[skysummit]

I believe only moderators and the original author of the thread is able to change the title. Who is Bill Kennedy?

Hmmm....maybe something is trying to get going. Low level clouds on the southeast side are moving south to north, and on the northwest side are moving north to south. Pressure is still kind of high in the area though.

[caneman]

I believe only moderators and the original author of the thread is able to change the title. Who is Bill Kennedy?

Hmmm....maybe something is trying to get going. Low level clouds on the southeast side are moving south to north, and on the northwest side are moving north to south. Pressure is still kind of high in the area though.

Bill Kennely sometimes does Tropical Updates on the weather channel

[NDG]

I would say that this system looks very interesting this morning, there's certainly a mid level circulation, but any LLC appears to be broad, there's that ship that reported a west wind earlier at 7z, but it was only reported once and no other ships have reported a west wind. If there's a LLC trying to form this morning I would put anywhere between 25N to 26.5N & 72.5W
Red arrows are low level cloud's direction that I have been able to tell so far this morning.

[skysummit]

Yea, that's right. I thought I heard that name before. I just don't watch TWC, so I forgot. Wow, they actually mentioned this area?

[NDG]

Here's the new ship reports in the area:

SHIP S 1200 27.10 -71.30 91 86 330 5.8 - - - - - 29.90 +0.01 78.8 82.4 73.8 6.2 6 - 1.6 6.0 110 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SHIP S 1200 24.60 -73.70 149 195 210 14.0 - 3.3 2.0 - - 30.00 +0.03 73.9 84.4 - 12.4 5

[skysummit]

It looks like we're seeing the same thing Dennis. I agree if there were to be a LLC forming, it would be in the northern half of the convection.

[NDG]

It looks like we're seeing the same thing Dennis. I agree if there were to be a LLC forming, it would be in the northern half of the convection.

Yeah, we are looking at the same thing, except I'm slower in editing the pictures, LOL. Yeah, I also should had placed the low symbol a little more west as well, it would make sense since the system is getting a little westerly shear and a ship reporting a SSW wind near 24N & 73W.

[wxman57]

Just got this in my email. I'll post a surface map with satellite shortly.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC SAT JUL 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070728 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070728 1200 070729 0000 070729 1200 070730 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.3N 73.8W 26.2N 73.6W 27.8N 72.5W 29.4N 71.1W
BAMD 25.3N 73.8W 26.3N 73.0W 28.1N 71.9W 30.3N 70.4W
BAMM 25.3N 73.8W 26.2N 73.6W 28.0N 73.0W 29.8N 71.8W
LBAR 25.3N 73.8W 25.9N 73.4W 27.2N 72.8W 29.1N 72.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070730 1200 070731 1200 070801 1200 070802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.0N 69.3W 34.6N 65.5W 39.4N 61.3W 41.9N 54.3W
BAMD 32.3N 68.4W 36.5N 63.5W 41.8N 58.0W 48.2N 42.8W
BAMM 31.7N 70.2W 35.8N 66.2W 40.6N 62.3W 43.4N 51.1W
LBAR 31.2N 71.3W 35.8N 68.7W 40.4N 61.7W 44.5N 48.0W
SHIP 48KTS 61KTS 65KTS 59KTS
DSHP 48KTS 61KTS 65KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 73.8W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 25.4N LONM12 = 73.9W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 25.4N LONM24 = 73.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[NDG]

Wow, can we be looking at our first hurricane in the making according to the ships model?!

[skysummit]

Whoa....didn't see that coming!

[Thunder44]

98L Invest is up on NRL now:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[stormchazer]

Wow! That kind of came out of now where. Is the CMC actually coming to fruition?

This will certainly wake the Forum up!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Time to change this thread to 98L

[skysummit]

Wow! That kind of came out of now where. Is the CMC actually coming to fruition?

LOL...like I said a few weeks ago, I've always liked the CMC for some reason. Sure it over develops systems, but you have to use common sense with it. When it's right, it's usually the first model to depict development.

[Thunder44]

Wow! That kind of came out of now where. Is the CMC actually coming to fruition?

LOL...like I said a few weeks ago, I've always liked the CMC for some reason. Sure it over develops systems, but you have to use common sense with it. When it's right, it's usually the first model to depict development.

Well it develops so many tropical cyclones or weak lows, that it's likely to be first model to depict anything

This time it had medium-range support from the GFS and the NAM.

[wxman57]

Satellite might suggest something, but adding surface obs tells the whole story. As you can see, pressures are lowest near the coast of S. Carolina, not near the disturbance. There's one ship with a 1012.5mb pressure that looks VERY suspect as it doesn't fit any other reports in that area. Ship pressures are notoriously bad, as they don't calibrate their barometers very often, sometimes. In any case, there's no evidence of an LLC in that blob of storms. Any LLC is associated with the remnant frontal boundary to the northwest.

I'm surprised they called this an invest, but it could be another test. Before anyone charges me with committing a federal crime by suggesting that the NHC doesn't REALLY think this is significant enough for an invest but they want to run more tests, just consider that such tests are good. They verify that everything works properly. Tests help protect the public. I'm not "accusing" them of doing anything bad. They're doing their job, working to protect the public. One clue is that the last discussion said absolutely nothing about this bob. Just keep in mind that they did make some major software changes in June with respect to the ingestion of model data (simplified description). The only way to really be sure that the software changes work well with real invest headers is to have an invest and test it. A test invest won't do, they need the real thing. So, it could be a test. No harm done, as these invests aren't broadcast to the public. You guys know about them because you're all hurricane nuts and you seek them out.

So if it's another test, that's good. It shows the NHC is preparing for the heart of the season and they want to make sure all is working properly. Better to find out the software upgrades don't work right now, when any threat is minimal, than later when a significant threat develops. Let's see what they say in the next outlook discussion. I suspect they'll mention the area but say development is unlikely.

[skysummit]

Wow! That kind of came out of now where. Is the CMC actually coming to fruition?

LOL...like I said a few weeks ago, I've always liked the CMC for some reason. Sure it over develops systems, but you have to use common sense with it. When it's right, it's usually the first model to depict development.

Well it develops so many tropical cyclones or weak lows, that it's likely to be first model to depict anything

This time it had medium-range support from the GFS and the NAM.

That's why I said common sense has to be used with it. IMO, it gives me ideas of places to begin looking for activity since it develops so many cyclones. Sometimes I laugh at it, and sometimes I say "hmmm, maybe it's really on to something this 1000th time"

[cpdaman]

thank you Wxman57 good post

which way might this blob be drifting in the future if it exists more than a day?

[windstorm99]

Nothing to worry about here as the trof of low pressure should keep this mess out to sea.