Signs of change from global models

[jaxfladude]

To the previous nine pages....

[alan1961]

This is the blob that the CMC looks to develop over the next few days..can't see how this is going to be any different from any other flare ups we've seen previous.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Meso]

The 00z GFS @ 348 Hours


The 00z CMC @ 144 Hours


UKmet and Nogaps lose the low after a while,but still do create a closed low.

The ECMWF has also lost the system that it was developing before

06z GFS @ 384 hours

[caneman]

new 06z GFS still showing development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Cyclone1]

Why are these models turning the system back to the EAST before continuing their westward path?

[cheezyWXguy]

Why are these models turning the system back to the EAST before continuing their westward path?

Either its a reformation of the center that is forecast, or it is an error accidently put in when the model initialized...thats all i can think of, unless the steering currents are erratic.

[Meso]

I did see in the CMC that it showed the high pressure building down reaching south america which may be what the models are seeing.Not sure..

The 12z GFS is coming out.. Will post images from 144/204/384 hours in this post as they are released,unless there is something significant between. So far it's looking like the previous run,closing a low within 40 hours and then losing it after a few days.

actually I`m not even going to post the 144 hour here.. there isnt even a low :p


Small low at 204 hours


It being at such a long range it loses a lot of credibility that it had before showing a system within the 90 hour time frame.

[Cyclone1]

I'm looking forward to little Lenny Jr. here.

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
The 12z CMC run (it does quite a bit with Invest 98)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
12z UKmet

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
12z Nogaps

[Cyclone1]

Wow! Look at 98! That's crazy!

[Cyclone1]

The CMC actually shows 5 TC's forming in the next few days!!

The first one is 98L.

The second and third storms form waves off of Africa wave in 60hrs, one in the mid Atlantic and the other off the coast,

And the forth and fifth storms form off the south east coast about 96hrs out.

All of them are atleast 1004mbar in strength.
All five. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5!! That's crazy!

I know it's farfetched, but WOW! Meso left a link.

[brunota2003]

You mean, according to the CMC, I might actually have to pay attention to the tropics? O.o

[Cyclone1]

You mean, according to the CMC, I might actually have to pay attention to the tropics? O.o

That's more systems forming next week than many Storm2k users predicted all month in the poll. The majority answer was four.

[Meso]

Entertainment Purposes

[Cyclone1]

Gulf storm.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop



The complete 18z GFS run above.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Instead of looking storm by storm, it is probably better to look at overall patterns. In the case of the GFS, it has been consistant over the past many runs at showing a major pattern change taking place over the next week. Instead of the east coast trough sticking around like it has the past few weeks, the model is now showing this being replaced by a westward moving bermuda high. This kind of pattern could mean bad news for the GOM and any storm able to form/get to the Caribbean or bahamas region could become a dangerous situation!

Here is a look at the pattern change on the 18z GFS run...

Current Pattern - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_000.shtml

3 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_072.shtml

5 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_120.shtml

7 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_168.shtml

9 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_216.shtml

11 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_264.shtml

13 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_312.shtml

This is not a "fantasy land" time table we are talking about either. We are talking about the first changes happening within the next few days and a possible complete shift in the pattern by this weekend or early next week. Could get interesting..

[flwxwatcher]

Instead of looking storm by storm, it is probably better to look at overall patterns. In the case of the GFS, it has been consistant over the past many runs at showing a major pattern change taking place over the next week. Instead of the east coast trough sticking around like it has the past few weeks, the model is now showing this being replaced by a westward moving bermuda high. This kind of pattern could mean bad news for the GOM and any storm able to form/get to the Caribbean or bahamas region could become a dangerous situation!

Here is a look at the pattern change on the 18z GFS run...

Current Pattern - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_000.shtml

3 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_072.shtml

5 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_120.shtml

7 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_168.shtml

9 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_216.shtml

11 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_264.shtml

13 days from now - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_312.shtml

This is not a "fantasy land" time table we are talking about either. We are talking about the first changes happening within the next few days and a possible complete shift in the pattern by this weekend or early next week. Could get interesting..

Agreed. you bring up a good point. If the pattern does change like the GFS is showing one of those innocent looking waves in the Eastern Atlantic could become a player down the road as they move into more favorable conditions and warmer SST'S. I have a feeling things will start getting interesting in the Atlantic in the next week besides any home brew that may develope.

[boca]

The pattern will change its just when and the GFS is doing some sniffing.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

And when the pattern changes...things will explode
especailly given the heat contents in the caribbean
so folks get ready for a wild ride