Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

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Windsurfer_NYC
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#81 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:15 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm surprised they called this an invest, but it could be another test. Before anyone charges me with committing a federal crime by suggesting that the NHC doesn't REALLY think this is significant enough for an invest but they want to run more tests...[snip]


57, I won't charge you with a federal crime (haha) as I truly respect your tropical knowledge and forecasting prowess, but I do have a challenge for your "NHC wants to run tests on their new software" theory. Specifically, if NHC was running a test, why wouldn't they use TEST designators, and in the case of 97L (which you also proposed being a test), why would NHC schedule a recon flight?
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#82 Postby cpdaman » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:16 am

well WXMAN looks like if this develops you will be working this weekend lol jk


seriously though is there enough information of current surface plots out there to tell if there is in fact a low or not out there, or is there a lack of current data in the area.
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#83 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:18 am

I agree completely with your observations 57 but I think we can draw a line thru the test theory since they are bullish with the 1130 TWO and it actually has a 1.0 Davorak.
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Re: Invest 98L Near Bahamas

#84 Postby Berwick Bay » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:22 am

57 obs about not yet having a true surface low in some ways has me more concerned. I notice that storms are now firing to the S and W of the original batch. Could be a bad signal. If and when surface low does develop it may be further south and west of what we think now. Also the delay in development of the low, might give this system time to "miss the trough" and perhaps begin a slow west drift. Just speculating. Think that in this case, it would not be wise to question the "invest status" by the NHC, even if there is not now a surface low. Those storms firing to the SW are persuading me that one may be imminent.
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Re: Invest 98L Near Bahamas

#85 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:24 am

I never expected this! I saw "invest 98L" and thought it was one of the waves off Africa. I even looked at it on the Navy site and thought the islands to the west of it were the Lesser Antilles. :lol:
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Re: Invest 98L Near Bahamas

#86 Postby Berwick Bay » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:31 am

Latest IR pic showing that new batch of storms which has fired to the S and W of the original t-storm complex. Has me somewhat concerned because low pressure center may not have formed yet (as 57 has posted) and that a forming low might locate itself further south and west. Here's the pic.
Image
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#87 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:32 am

Windsurfer_NYC wrote:
57, I won't charge you with a federal crime (haha) as I truly respect your tropical knowledge and forecasting prowess, but I do have a challenge for your "NHC wants to run tests on their new software" theory. Specifically, if NHC was running a test, why wouldn't they use TEST designators, and in the case of 97L (which you also proposed being a test), why would NHC schedule a recon flight?


Like I said, we run similar tests pre-season and even during the season. Test invests have a different header than real invests. So software could work with the test headers but not with the real thing. We've experienced problems during real storms/disturbance that didn't occur with test-numbered storms/disturbances. So I suspect that the NHC isn't too concerned about this system (either developing and certainly affecting anyone) though it does give them an opportunity to work out any remaining bugs. Like you said, it's just my theory. Either way, it doesn't make much difference. This is one for the fishes.
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Re: Invest 98L Near Bahamas

#88 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:34 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's a 15Z surface plot with satellite. Doesn't look too impressive. Upper-level trof is approaching from the west, increasing wind shear across 98L. No evidence of any LLC or even a surface trof associated with 98L. Just straight SE-SSE winds through the storms.

Image


Come on wxman57, you can't say there's no evidence of a LLC with only one ship observation to the NE of where a circulation appears to be on vis sat loop. I can clearly see why the ship reported a SSE wind, because an outflow from the convection to the south, which is why is reported a temp of only 76 deg, some might argue that if it was an outflow is not tropical in nature, but we know that outflows are not uncommon on the NE quadrant of a developing cyclone when they are weak, and the ship is a good 180 miles NE of where a center of circulation appears to be centered.
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#89 Postby punkyg » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:40 am

I didn't know 98L formed and its near florida yay!
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#90 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:41 am

I'd Say disorganized is the word at the moment..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Re: Invest 98L Near Bahamas

#91 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:43 am

NDG wrote:
Come on wxman57, you can't say there's no evidence of a LLC with only one ship observation to the NE of where a circulation appears to be on vis sat loop. I can clearly see why the ship reported a SSE wind, because an outflow from the convection to the south, which is why is reported a temp of only 76 deg, some might argue that if it was an outflow is not tropical in nature, but we know that outflows are not uncommon on the NE quadrant of a developing cyclone when they are weak, and the ship is a good 180 miles NE of where a center of circulation appears to be centered.


Perhaps I should have been more clear - there's no evidence of an LLC in the surface observations. Satellite loops can be very deceiving, as you cannot really tell if any spin you think you see is near the surface or 10,000 feet up. I think back to one of the systems last year that looked like a TS to me (and most of you here). It had an obvious rotation and storms near the center. Recon flew in and found no LLC. The spin was aloft.

Well, no rain out there this morning. TdF time trial is over, so time to head out on the bike for the next 3 hours or so. This disturbance won't ruin my weekend. Not much chance of development today or tomorrow. And I even have Sunday off this weekend.
Last edited by wxman57 on Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#92 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:45 am

wxman57 wrote:
Windsurfer_NYC wrote:
57, I won't charge you with a federal crime (haha) as I truly respect your tropical knowledge and forecasting prowess, but I do have a challenge for your "NHC wants to run tests on their new software" theory. Specifically, if NHC was running a test, why wouldn't they use TEST designators, and in the case of 97L (which you also proposed being a test), why would NHC schedule a recon flight?


Like I said, we run similar tests pre-season and even during the season. Test invests have a different header than real invests. So software could work with the test headers but not with the real thing. We've experienced problems during real storms/disturbance that didn't occur with test-numbered storms/disturbances. So I suspect that the NHC isn't too concerned about this system (either developing and certainly affecting anyone) though it does give them an opportunity to work out any remaining bugs. Like you said, it's just my theory. Either way, it doesn't make much difference. This is one for the fishes.


I have another theory. Maybe the NHC has access to data that is not released to the public that tells them there is something more going on there. There may be some navy ships or planes out there our government doesn't not want us to know that are there. This may be wild but it's hard to believe that NHC is just make up these surface trofs, or lows. :lol:
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#93 Postby punkyg » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:53 am

I wanna know whats gonna make this blobitty blob move northeast?

if yall can tell me i'll make you some sugar cookies. :D
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Re: Invest 98L Near Bahamas

#94 Postby Berwick Bay » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:54 am

Well I'll give 57 the benefit of the doubt about there not yet being a surface low (he's been right on everything else so far this year). But I wonder if that might not actually increase the danger. Late developing surface low forms further S and W (due south of an eastward shifting continental air mass) so that the trough misses the developing low, which might develop closer to S Fl than we presently think. Just speculation here. But 57 may very well be right about the lack of a surface low at present. But I don't doubt the NHC about this being a real invest. Think they sense a developing surface low with this system .
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Re: Invest 98L Near Bahamas

#95 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:54 am

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:
Come on wxman57, you can't say there's no evidence of a LLC with only one ship observation to the NE of where a circulation appears to be on vis sat loop. I can clearly see why the ship reported a SSE wind, because an outflow from the convection to the south, which is why is reported a temp of only 76 deg, some might argue that if it was an outflow is not tropical in nature, but we know that outflows are not uncommon on the NE quadrant of a developing cyclone when they are weak, and the ship is a good 180 miles NE of where a center of circulation appears to be centered.


Perhaps I should have been more clear - there's no evidence of an LLC in the surface observations. Satellite loops can be very deceiving, as you cannot really tell if any spin you think you see is near the surface or 10,000 feet up. I think back to one of the systems last year that looked like a TS to me (and most of you here). It had an obvious rotation and storms near the center. Recon flew in and found no LLC. The spin was aloft.

Well, no rain out there this morning. TdF time trial is over, so time to head out on the bike for the next 3 hours or so. This disturbance won't ruin my weekend. Not much chance of development today or tomorrow. And I even have Sunday off this weekend.


And I agree, I can't say there's an evidence of a LLC either from surface observations, but to say that there's nothing but SE & SSE winds across the disturbance is incorrect, IMO, because there's only one report of a SSE wind and is a good distance away to the NE of what appears to be a circulation on Satellite.
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#96 Postby x-y-no » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:54 am

That shortwave trough has been digging down hard all day and doesn't seem to have reached it's limit yet ...

That's very hostile to development of this blob.
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#97 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:56 am

Thunder44 wrote:I have another theory. Maybe the NHC has access to data that is not released to the public that tells them there is something more going on there. There may be some navy ships or planes out there our government doesn't not want us to know that are there. This may be wild but it's hard to believe that NHC is just make up these surface trofs, or lows. :lol:


You might have something there. Maybe they just flew these secret planes across the country from Edwards AFB and they're the ones dropping the huge chunks of ice on various areas. ;-)
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#98 Postby punkyg » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:57 am

wxman57 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I have another theory. Maybe the NHC has access to data that is not released to the public that tells them there is something more going on there. There may be some navy ships or planes out there our government doesn't not want us to know that are there. This may be wild but it's hard to believe that NHC is just make up these surface trofs, or lows. :lol:


You might have something there. Maybe they just flew these secret planes across the country from Edwards AFB and they're the ones dropping the huge chunks of ice on various areas. ;-)

thats sounds retarded.
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#99 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:58 am

punkyg wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I have another theory. Maybe the NHC has access to data that is not released to the public that tells them there is something more going on there. There may be some navy ships or planes out there our government doesn't not want us to know that are there. This may be wild but it's hard to believe that NHC is just make up these surface trofs, or lows. :lol:


You might have something there. Maybe they just flew these secret planes across the country from Edwards AFB and they're the ones dropping the huge chunks of ice on various areas. ;-)

thats sounds retarded.


yeah, but it's funny. :D
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#100 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:59 am

wxman57 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:I have another theory. Maybe the NHC has access to data that is not released to the public that tells them there is something more going on there. There may be some navy ships or planes out there our government doesn't not want us to know that are there. This may be wild but it's hard to believe that NHC is just make up these surface trofs, or lows. :lol:


You might have something there. Maybe they just flew these secret planes across the country from Edwards AFB and they're the ones dropping the huge chunks of ice on various areas. ;-)


:lol:

This area looks somewhat interesting, sort of came out of nowhere.
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