12Z GFS Wow!

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_348l.gif

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_372l.gif

[dixiebreeze]

Oh my. Looks ferocious. What is the source for all this? Thoughts?

[Cyclone1]

This should probably be in the global models thread. But still, very cool.

[Meso]

It's been showing the same thing and much stronger storms over the past few days,all the runs and stuff are in the global models thread.Past few runs have been weaker than earlier ones and developing a different low than previous ones,it's still a long way out,so it's likely to change and can't really be trusted.

[Blown Away]

Maybe this is that the wave at @10-12N/45-50W.

[Agua]

sorry, can't read the small text. Is that 372 hours out?

[Cyclone1]

sorry, can't read the small text. Is that 372 hours out?

The second one is, yes.

[WmE]

That's more than 2 weeks!

[Frank2]

Don't mean to sound harsh, but, a 384-hour forecast map = a computer's version of fiction...

Look what happened to that "New 0Z ETA BRINGS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO UPPER TX COAST IN 84 HR" topic - Noon today was the hour mentioned in the forecast, so, that's with an 84-hour forecast map - imagine what it's like with a computer forecast that's 4.5 times longer in length...

[vacanechaser]

Don't mean to sound harsh, but, a 384-hour forecast map = a computer's version of fiction...

Look what happened to that "New 0Z ETA BRINGS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO UPPER TX COAST IN 84 HR" topic - Noon today was the hour mentioned in the forecast, so, that's with an 84-hour forecast map - imagine what it's like with a computer forecast that's 4.5 times longer in length...

very true... however, it nailed isabel that far out... almost dead on before it started having troubles moving it to the gulf, mexico, or maine... but the first run with a developing isabel, was right into north carolina... now i am not silly enough to put too much stock in it yet... however, run after run have been showing something coming... coud be picking up on the pattern shift to august... warning shots???


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Frank2]

From that far out (August 11), it's probably based more on climatology than anything...

Last week, the GFS kept insisting on an out-of-season northeaster that must have driven some business owners on Cape Cod crazy, but, that has since disappeared...

As we used to say, "Only if it's on the map..." (as in the current surface analysis)...

[windstorm99]

12z GFS may show a sign of things to come in august and september but that particular forcast at 300 some hours out is likely to not come to pass as the skill level of the model is very poor that far out.

Now if it was showing something like that at 60-84hrs then its something to moniter a little closer.Adrian

[OuterBanker]

A nervous laugh. The long term is mostly good for a laugh, and should be taken with great caution. I haven't really looked at the models lately (way too busy this time of year) but couple days ago I looked at the two week accuweather pro 15 day because we are involved with the Pirates Cove billfish tournament in a couple weeks. Well, to make a long story short it showed thurs the ninth with av winds of 35, gusts to 55. Didn't tell the wife because I knew it would change the next day. Fri had not dropped it, in fact bumped it up so I guessed thier forecast was based on the GFS. I was right, sure enough it dropped to 15 to 35 on the same days today so the GFS must have lost it today. A very good thing, although the 35 is a bit much.

btw Pirate's Cove tournament last year paid 840,000 1st, 640,000 2nd, etc. we sell jewelry during the tournament

[Brent]

Don't mean to sound harsh, but, a 384-hour forecast map = a computer's version of fiction...

Look what happened to that "New 0Z ETA BRINGS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO UPPER TX COAST IN 84 HR" topic - Noon today was the hour mentioned in the forecast, so, that's with an 84-hour forecast map - imagine what it's like with a computer forecast that's 4.5 times longer in length...

I do agree, and I don't buy the specifics(as in a storm would be in that exact spot on that day), BUT, what I do think it shows is that within 2 weeks there will be storms to track.

[HURAKAN]

It's interesting to see computer models at long range, not for their operational value, but for their good sense of imagination. Lets stick with the 24 to 48 forecast, which are rarely really good, and leave the two weeks forecast out. I don't think it's even properly scientifical to pay attention to that. Once in a while they may be right, but for the rest of the 99.9999999999999999999999->% of the time, they are wrong.

Still, it's a forecast!!!

[jrod]

I saw that yesterday and thought about opening a thread about it. It is just a long wave forecast and we all know how reliable they are.

[canegrl04]

On TWC this afternoon,they talked about the elongated wave in the EasAtl. It was huge and they said it looked like it was trying to curl .

[wxman57]

Oh my. Looks ferocious. What is the source for all this? Thoughts?

The source? Probably bad physics in the GFS model. GFS develops quite a few such storms through the season. Most are just phantom storms. It's worth noting that the GFS has only recently been indicating that any waves will develop, though. The pattern is slowly changing out there. Won't be long until something gets going.

[Scorpion]

348 hours.. enough said