Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

There must be something going on down there with all the different wind directions

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 1800 25.00 -75.50 190 271 250 8.9 - 3.3 7.0 - - 29.94 -0.03 86.0 84.2
SHIP S 1800 25.90 -75.60 202 286 330 9.9 - 1.6 1.0 - - 29.97 - 85.6 81.0
SHIP S 1800 21.40 -70.20 238 155 150 13.0 - 4.9 2.0 - - 30.00 -0.04 88.0 -
SHIP S 1800 26.70 -67.80 249 65 180 11.1 - - - - - 29.88

Closed circulation? TD3 (albeit a very weak one)?

[jrod]

This is a possible swell event for me. Most of my wave models agree. Hopefully they are correct.

[storms in NC]

What did I tell you all last week? There would be a storm when I went in the hospital for cancer surgery. Did I not?

Okay who has a laptop I can use in the hospital?

[DrewFL]

I don't see a surface low on this chart yet. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

[HURAKAN]

LETS GET THIS PARTY STARTED!!!

[DrewFL]

LETS GET THIS PARTY STARTED!!!

Ha Ha Ha! Go for it!

[jrod]

Here is the quikscat link. Nothing impressive but it does indicate a circulation.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png

[Duddy]

Which way is this thing headed?

[Cyclone1]

FINALLY! After two months, a glint of hope. And, it's a FISH!

[jrod]

Which way is this thing headed?

Northeast

[Duddy]

Here is the quikscat link. Nothing impressive but it does indicate a circulation.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png

Is it me, or does that thing show it spinning the wrong direction?

[wxman57]

Models:

CMC - develops, strengthens to a Cat 2-3

GFDL - develops, strengthens to a Cat 1

GFS - develops a TS then absorbs by a new system

HWRF - fails to develop

NOGAPS - absorbs by a new system which strengthens

UKM - develops but only becomes a TS

The Canadian appears to be developing a large extratropical low along the frontal boundary, not the disturbance. Sort of the same situation as with 96L - energy being absorbed by the upper-level trof and a frontal low developing. I doubt we'll see Chantal out of this. Remember, models are probably being initialized with more of a low than what's there. Take a look at a WV loop. Note the strong SW winds approaching from the west and the deep upper low just NE of the disturbance. Wind shear should be increasing with time.

[jrod]

West winds on the southside and light East winds on the northside, seems right to me just very weak.

[wxman57]

This is a possible swell event for me. Most of my wave models agree. Hopefully they are correct.

I wouldn't count on much swell. Winds between you and the disturbance are only 10-15 kts, that's less than normal trade winds. And with it moving NE, very little energy would be directed toward VA even if it were to develop.

[jrod]

This is a possible swell event for me. Most of my wave models agree. Hopefully they are correct.

I wouldn't count on much swell. Winds between you and the disturbance are only 10-15 kts, that's less than normal trade winds. And with it moving NE, very little energy would be directed toward VA even if it were to develop.

That was what Im thinking now. This morning's swell models gave me some false hope.

[xironman]

I had been looking at the GFS at http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFST ... sloop.html, as well as the NOGAPS, and thought that the shear would stay north for a while, is there a better place to look?

[wxman57]

Here's a 20Z surface plot with satellite. As you can see, not many obs out there. What obs there area are only 5-10 kts off the east U.S. Coast. WV loops show increasing shear and decreasing convection. I think there is a weak mid-level rotation but I doubt there's anything at the surface. Development chances are low. In any case, it's heading out to sea.

[storms in NC]

Here's a 20Z surface plot with satellite. As you can see, not many obs out there. What obs there area are only 5-10 kts off the east U.S. Coast. WV loops show increasing shear and decreasing convection. I think there is a weak mid-level rotation but I doubt there's anything at the surface. Development chances are low. In any case, it's heading out to sea.

Well that is the best kind to track JIMO
After looking at the Vis loops you can see that it is going east maybe a tad to the north at this time. But will be picked up by the troff and head on out to sea. It is still under the influence of the ULL.

But if it can breake away from the ULL it may have a chance. But don't think that isgoing to happen. It would have to move southwest to do that.JMO

[JonathanBelles]

I didnt see this on here.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 281700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SAT 28 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 29/1730Z
D. 30N AND 71W
E. 29/1900Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION NEAR 32N AND 69W
FOR 30/1200Z OR INVEST AT 30/1800Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[jaxfladude]

The question is will it become at least a TD or will it go poof soon....?