Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It pains me to say this, but this doe's not have a chance to develop. Look at the shear streaming into it from the west. That is about ready to be right over it, over the next 6 hours. This "thing" is already starting to be torn apart. Only a broad low is even there; most likely off the surface. 98L is another dud.

[Berwick Bay]

Holy Mackerel! The way that trough is diving down, with storms being pushed to the south, who knows we may well indeed have to look for development along the SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA! (July 26- 29 at 21N and 79W)??? Nah, Let it go, Berwick!

[clfenwi]

ABNT20 KNHC 282128
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[wxman57]

A 21Z plot is below. Not very impressive. That 1010.6mb ship pressure looks to be too low, probably a non-calibrated barometer. The big clue is the lack of wind in the area - 5-10 kts. If there really was a 6+mb pressure drop between Bermuda and the ship then winds would be a lot higher. I suppose we cannot rule out development completely once the disturbance moves northeast of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. Chances of that maybe 20%, maybe less.

[cpdaman]

Wxman do you see any kind of extratropical low or moderate strength low pressures developing along this trough , in the waters around the SE united states or gulf in the next 48 hours

i can not remember seeing a trough dive so far south this time of year

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[RL3AO]

Would this be tropical or subtropical or too soon to tell?

[wxman57]

Wxman do you see any kind of extratropical low or moderate strength low pressures developing along this trough , in the waters around the SE united states or gulf in the next 48 hours

i can not remember seeing a trough dive so far south this time of year

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Thunderstorms just about anywhere over warm water need to be watched this time of year. I've been saying for a while that the current pattern is the type that could drive storms south into the Gulf, resulting in an Alicia-type rapid development. Don't see that over the next 2-3 days, but it's something to be alert for.

Well, almost time to head out for another 3-hour bike ride, this time with the wife. That'll be 6 hours of riding today. I should be ready for next year's Tour de France after about 180-200 ride days in 2007.

[Ptarmigan]

Thunderstorms just about anywhere over warm water need to be watched this time of year. I've been saying for a while that the current pattern is the type that could drive storms south into the Gulf, resulting in an Alicia-type rapid development. Don't see that over the next 2-3 days, but it's something to be alert for.

Well, almost time to head out for another 3-hour bike ride, this time with the wife. That'll be 6 hours of riding today. I should be ready for next year's Tour de France after about 180-200 ride days in 2007.

Very true. Alicia fromed from thunderstorms from a cool front that past Houston. Rather unusual for that time of the year. Anyways, good luck with your 3 hour bike ride. You will get some good exercise.

[wxman57]

12Z ECMWF shows no development. You can track the vorticity moving off to the NE over the next 2-3 days. That's about it. Looks reasonable. 12Z GFS does the same thing with it. Looks reasonable.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow? A hurricane?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp12.png

With GFDL so strong I would say a depression and then
tropical storm chantal is likely, though I think
it will stay off the coast of the U.S.
Bermuda should watch it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfdl is likely thinking that there is no shear for this system to deal with. Its likely 25-30 knots right now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Although there is nothing here yet it would make sense that something would form and take this eastern trough with it..Thus letting the Bermuda high finally settle in..

[Thunder44]

From the 8:05pm TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N73W INTO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RIDGING ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA SURROUNDING THE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ABOUT THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

[NDG]

From the 8:05pm TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N73W INTO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RIDGING ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA SURROUNDING THE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ABOUT THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

The NHC is sounding very serious for 98L just being a test, as posted earlier by a member,

Yet more evidence of a W wind:
SHIP S 0000 25.60 -74.90 215 280 260 4.1 - - - - - 29.90 -0.13 86.0 84.9

[miamicanes177]

The NHC is sounding very serious for 98L just being a test, as posted earlier by a member,

Yet more evidence of a W wind:
SHIP S 0000 25.60 -74.90 215 280 260 4.1 - - - - - 29.90 -0.13 86.0 84.9

I agree with you. I think given the words from the NHC in their TWO it would be reasonable to assume this is the real deal and not just a test. If 98L were just a test then why would the NHC mislead the public by saying, "environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development". Also, I doubt they would schedule recon to investigate a "test invest".

[jaxfladude]

From the 8:05pm TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N73W INTO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RIDGING ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA SURROUNDING THE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ABOUT THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

======================================================================
Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

At least if anything develops out of this system is is very much likely to become a "FISH"
or a slim chance of giving Bermuda a close call with at least a strong TS(35-73mph)/Cat 1 hurricane(74 to 95 mph)
My pick max winds 80 mph at it strongest......brushing to the west of Bermuda by 100-150 miles.....and with the island getting some rough weather maybe getting moderate TS force winds and some heavy tropical rains......rough surf and very choppy seas.......

[miamicanes177]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 290051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC SUN JUL 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070729 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070729 0000 070729 1200 070730 0000 070730 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.3N 73.2W 28.9N 72.4W 30.5N 71.3W 32.1N 70.0W
BAMD 27.3N 73.2W 29.1N 72.6W 31.1N 71.6W 33.2N 70.0W
BAMM 27.3N 73.2W 29.0N 72.5W 30.8N 71.4W 32.6N 69.9W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070731 0000 070801 0000 070802 0000 070803 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.6N 68.5W 36.6N 64.7W 39.4N 59.2W 40.1N 50.9W
BAMD 35.6N 67.9W 40.5N 63.7W 45.7N 53.3W 53.3N 39.0W
BAMM 34.3N 68.0W 38.2N 63.5W 41.9N 56.3W 45.7N 40.7W
SHIP 46KTS 54KTS 54KTS 51KTS
DSHP 46KTS 54KTS 54KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.3N LONCUR = 73.2W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 25.3N LONM12 = 73.8W DIRM12 = 17DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 25.4N LONM24 = 73.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[CrazyC83]

Could it be TD3 right now?

[Cyclone1]

Could it be TD3 right now?

It could be. If it is, recon will initialize advisories tomorrow, and reanalysis will extend the best track back to now.

[NDG]

Could it be TD3 right now?

It could be. If it is, recon will initialize advisories tomorrow, and reanalysis will extend the best track back to now.

Most likely not yet a TD, watched the 1km vis loop before going dark, circulation is still broad & weak.