Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe when its being carried out to sea it might have a chance. But as of now it has 20 knot shear over it...With only a very broad MLC. But its no were near td3.

[NDG]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290202
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Bane]

Wow? A hurricane?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp12.png

With GFDL so strong I would say a depression and then
tropical storm chantal is likely, though I think
it will stay off the coast of the U.S.
Bermuda should watch it.

completely disagree. the gfdl has a history of over intensifying storms. this one hasn't even developed yet. if conditions do become more favorable, then it could develop, but i wouldn't say it is likely.

[philnyc]

Maybe when its being carried out to sea it might have a chance. But as of now it has 20 knot shear over it...With only a very broad MLC. But its no were near td3.

Shear is 10-20 knots and forecast to decrease north and north-northeast of it, although northeast of it there is an increase expected...



Keep in mind the key at right denotes ACTUAL shear. The dashed and solid lines are tendencies...

[sunnyday]

Whatever it is or becomes, at least it looks as if S. Fla is not the target, right?

[skysummit]

Whatever it is or becomes, at least it looks as if S. Fla is not the target, right?

Right.

[DrewFL]

Double right.

[skysummit]

West wind for what it's worth...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow? A hurricane?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp12.png

With GFDL so strong I would say a depression and then
tropical storm chantal is likely, though I think
it will stay off the coast of the U.S.
Bermuda should watch it.

completely disagree. the gfdl has a history of over intensifying storms. this one hasn't even developed yet. if conditions do become more favorable, then it could develop, but i wouldn't say it is likely.

GFDL overintensifies? I didn't know that. Well then I would say possible, not likely.
Interesting...I thought GFDL was pretty accurate....oh well

[Cyclone1]

Wow? A hurricane?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp12.png

With GFDL so strong I would say a depression and then
tropical storm chantal is likely, though I think
it will stay off the coast of the U.S.
Bermuda should watch it.

completely disagree. the gfdl has a history of over intensifying storms. this one hasn't even developed yet. if conditions do become more favorable, then it could develop, but i wouldn't say it is likely.

GFDL overintensifies? I didn't know that. Well then I would say possible, not likely.
Interesting...I thought GFDL was pretty accurate....oh well

It is accurate, just sometimes it freaks out. Like with Ioke, it brought it to a 215mph, 850mbar super-hurricane.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks to everyone for GFDL info...good to know...

I'll keep an eye on it...not too impressive
right now but I'll watch it....

[DrewFL]

Please don't be whacking on my GFDL!
Great model after you actually "HAVE" something! Ya know?

[wxman57]

Looks quite pathetic now as the upper trof has overtaken it. Just a mess of strung out thunderstorms. Absolutely no evidence of an LLC. Not even much of a surface trof. Looks worse than it has for the past day or so. Models are assuming there's a 25-30 kt low to start out with, but that's not the case. That's why they develop it. Now that it's merged with the upper trof, there could be some chance of a surface low forming in a day or so once it moves northeast of Bermuda. But I guarantee it'll not be a TD tomorrow and recon won't be flying tomorrow.

Oh, by the way, that ship reporting the west wind at 5 kts is west of the weak frontal boundary that just caught up to 98L. Just a weak wind shift behind the boundary.

[skysummit]

This is what I see right now...moving east. I can't tell if it's mid or low levels though...probably mid levels.

[skysummit]

Are they still testing? LOL

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SAT 28 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 29/1730Z
D. 30N AND 71W
E. 29/1900Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION NEAR 32N AND 69W
FOR 30/1200Z OR INVEST AT 30/1800Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[wxman57]

Are they still testing? LOL

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SAT 28 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 29/1730Z
D. 30N AND 71W
E. 29/1900Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION NEAR 32N AND 69W
FOR 30/1200Z OR INVEST AT 30/1800Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Yep, still could be testing, but with a system that has at least a slim chance of developing in a few days. How about a $50 bet that no recon flies tomorrow?

[skysummit]

Yep, still could be testing, but with a system that has at least a slim chance of developing in a few days. How about a $50 bet that no recon flies tomorrow?

Nah....I'll pass on that b/c I wouldn't fly unless something drastically changes.

[Recurve]

Thanks to everyone for GFDL info...good to know...

I'll keep an eye on it...not too impressive
right now but I'll watch it....

If I remember right, the GFDL had Katrina swinging south just off south Florida and intensifying to, I believe, a Cat 5 before hitting the Keys. Interestingly, the southward swing turned out to be right, just too far east, and it did start strengthening as it was crossing the southwest tip of florida. It just took a while longer to reach Cat 5.

[wxman57]

This is what I see right now...moving east. I can't tell if it's mid or low levels though...probably mid levels.

http://aycu02.webshots.com/image/24201/2003603309394700736_rs.jpg

I think you're seeing low clouds streaming north on the east side and mid level clouds associated with the convection to the west streaming south on the west side. Appears to be clouds at different levels moving in opposite directions and not any LLC. It's very hard to identify an LLC on IR imagery. But let's say there was an LLC where you circled. Note the line of convection is to the west and high clouds are blowing the tops off to the east and southeast. Not good.

[wxman57]

Thanks to everyone for GFDL info...good to know...

I'll keep an eye on it...not too impressive
right now but I'll watch it....

If I remember right, the GFDL had Katrina swinging south just off south Florida and intensifying to, I believe, a Cat 5 before hitting the Keys. Interestingly, the southward swing turned out to be right, just too far east, and it did start strengthening as it was crossing the southwest tip of florida. It just took a while longer to reach Cat 5.

The GFDL did pretty good with Katrina once it developed. The problem with 98L is that the models are being initialized with a 25-30kt low center that doesn't exist. Bad initialization = a bad intensity forecast.