12Z GFS Wow!

[jimvb]

Hurricane Wow has been appearing in quite a few runs now, mostly in the far off misty lands of 8 days from now or later. Its date of striking the CONUS or of going fish (whatever) has been getting postponed a bit, but it is still there. The time of reckoning will come whenever one of these Hurricane Wows goes into the 7-days-from-now time or less, or maybe when we can identify a tropical depression or invest with it.

[flwxwatcher]

Don't mean to sound harsh, but, a 384-hour forecast map = a computer's version of fiction...

Look what happened to that "New 0Z ETA BRINGS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO UPPER TX COAST IN 84 HR" topic - Noon today was the hour mentioned in the forecast, so, that's with an 84-hour forecast map - imagine what it's like with a computer forecast that's 4.5 times longer in length...

very true... however, it nailed isabel that far out... almost dead on before it started having troubles moving it to the gulf, mexico, or maine... but the first run with a developing isabel, was right into north carolina... now i am not silly enough to put too much stock in it yet... however, run after run have been showing something coming... coud be picking up on the pattern shift to august... warning shots???




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yep.. Looks like the GFS is signaling that Hurricane Season should be starting right about on time.

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[skysummit]

00z 66 hours out shows a 1009mb low approaching the Caribbean.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the most interesting thing is how the 00z GFS shows the bermuda high building in strong by day 7...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

The eastern trough seems to be gone on hour 168.

[jimvb]

The 2007 July 29 18Z GFS is in. Hurricane Wow is back. It's near Puerto Rico on August 14, seemingly heading for Florida because of a far-ranging Bermuda high ridge. The August 3 storm seems to be there although just barely - I call this one Frontdragger.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

All I have to say is that it is very far out and anything can happen. But I can say this with pretty high confidence. I expect the Bermuda High to build in strong for mid August to mid September. It's been nearly nonexistent this whole summer. Typically long wave patterns change a couple of times each summer so we are ready for a change. That combined with an expected La Nina and the positive correlation between inactive early seasons and active later seasons is going to make the second half of hurricane seasoning very interesting.....


very active I believe.

[canegrl04]

the most interesting thing is how the 00z GFS shows the bermuda high building in strong by day 7...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

The eastern trough seems to be gone on hour 168.

Very ominous sounding.We could have ourselves a repeat of 2004 or 2005

[Air Force Met]

Don't mean to sound harsh, but, a 384-hour forecast map = a computer's version of fiction...

Look what happened to that "New 0Z ETA BRINGS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO UPPER TX COAST IN 84 HR" topic - Noon today was the hour mentioned in the forecast, so, that's with an 84-hour forecast map - imagine what it's like with a computer forecast that's 4.5 times longer in length...

very true... however, it nailed isabel that far out... almost dead on before it started having troubles moving it to the gulf, mexico, or maine... but the first run with a developing isabel, was right into north carolina... now i am not silly enough to put too much stock in it yet... however, run after run have been showing something coming... coud be picking up on the pattern shift to august... warning shots???


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

You know...this is 2 weeks out...and now I look at the maps a day later and thinks have obviously changed. I don't mean to sound harsh but it really bothers me every time I hear someone say "But such and such nailed Hurricane X. _ days out" Well...I don't care what model it is...whether the Canadian or the GFS...when we start forecasting something out of nothing and start bringing up the "yeah, but's"...we might want to remember all the storms that were forecasted and never materialized or did materialize and were not forecasted. When we do that...we realize that the "it nailed hurricane x ___ days out" was really nothing more than random chance...or a blind squirrel finding an acorn.

And I know the next time the Canadian puts a monster on the eastern seaboard on day 10...someone will bring up some past success...and not the 100 failures. I guess it is all about hope.

[dwg71]

Thanks AFM, its just dumb luck when the stir something up out of nothing a week in advance.

Its like the african wave train, 1 develops and everyone jumps on, they forgot the 99 that came off first and didnt.

This may very well to turn out to be an "average" year, in numbers. 10-12 named storms.