Typhoon Usagi in Western Pacific

[HurricaneRobert]

It could be Cosme. I tried following the remnants, and though the convection disappeared, that wave around 160W 20N appears to be the remnants.

GIBBS satellite image

Cosme-Usagi?

[RL3AO]

Cosme lost its low so it would be a new system.

[P.K.]

Ex-Cosme was very briefly a TD in the NW Pacific but it was even dropped as a LPA in the following update. This will therefore not be called Cosme.

[RL3AO]

BTW, the JTWC upgraded to a storm.

[RL3AO]

Wow. JTWC calling for Cat 4.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Forecast for Cat 4...scary!!! These WPAC systems are really getting intense

[wxmann_91]

If it reaches Cat 4, it won't be as far north as JT forecasts it to be. At that point, this will be weakening... the waters don't support a Cat 4 up at 30N.

On the bright side, the deep convection has maintained itself SO FAR over the diurnal minimum (it's about lunchtime in that area right now). The system is also very small and well-separated from competing convection in the monsoonal trough. So it can ramp up very quickly.

On the dark side, there's easterly shear, and the OHC gets very marginal ~36-48 hr from now.

[Typhoon Hunter]

The latest ECMWF run (12z yesterday) has this smacking straight into the middle of Honshu. Here's the latest satellite analysis in my inbox:

TPPN10 PGTW 290308

A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (NO NAME)

B. 29/0230Z

C. 18.5N/4

D. 146.5E/6

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS (28/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

AMES

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

TS 0705 (USAGI)
Issued at 06:00 UTC, 29 July 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0705 USAGI (0705) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 18.1N 144.5E POOR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 20.8N 143.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 310600UTC 24.4N 140.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 010600UTC 30.0N 139.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT

[P.K.]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hello Usagi.

00Z ECMWF run still maintaining a direct hit on Honshu, further to the west of where JMA and JTWC are suggesting. Looks like this could be Japan's second TC of the year. After missing out on Man-yi I'm eager to get to Japan to intercept a typhoon so I'll be keeping a close eye on how this develops.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Up to 40kts now. JMA now going for a track which looks like a direct hit on mainland Japan (Honshu):

TS 0705 (USAGI)
Issued at 12:00 UTC, 29 July 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0705 USAGI (0705)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 18.5N 143.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM

FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 21.1N 140.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 311200UTC 25.1N 138.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 011200UTC 30.5N 137.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT

[x-y-no]

Hello Usagi.

00Z ECMWF run still maintaining a direct hit on Honshu, further to the west of where JMA and JTWC are suggesting. Looks like this could be Japan's second TC of the year. After missing out on Man-yi I'm eager to get to Japan to intercept a typhoon so I'll be keeping a close eye on how this develops.

Looking forward to your reports if you manage to do this.

[Chacor]

JTWC's latest adv holds it at 45 kt, good agreement on position and intensity with JMA (40 kt, 18.5N 143.8E).

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey x-y-no.

I've just been checking flights to Osaka, which is in the forecast impact zone, and I can get there very very cheaply. Of course it's far to early to be calling specific landfall locations but it pays to do some advanced research if things pan out as per current forecasts.

I'll being posting updates here as this situation develops.

[HURAKAN]

29/1433 UTC 18.4N 143.9E T3.5/3.5 USAGI



Next stop, typhoon status.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

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With cloud tops over center near
-85 C I would expect rapid intensification
to typhoon status. This could become
very intense over the next few days.
Category 2 typhoon possible in the next day or so.

[wxmann_91]

The 500mb pattern progged makes me believe that this system might end up making landfall further west than what the JT track indicates attm.

Does anybody have a link to the TC track & intensity models?

And does anybody know how I can access JTWC?

[RattleMan]

The 500mb pattern progged makes me believe that this system might end up making landfall further west than what the JT track indicates attm.

Does anybody have a link to the TC track & intensity models?

And does anybody know how I can access JTWC?

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/cgi-bin/abpwcreate.cgi
ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/GuamStuff/