SWIO getting active early: 91S INVEST TCFA

[Chacor]

Boy, the Southwest Indian Ocean sure wants storms to form early this year. 90S reached FAIR from the JTWC and now 91S has a TCFA on it.

This FAIR is from 2230Z:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 85.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 85.9E, APPROXIMATELY 815 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. A 271604Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTED IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND TRACK
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.

But the JTWC has since issued this TCFA:

[Chacor]

[RL3AO]

That is crazy.

[Chacor]

WTXS21 PGTW 280230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/280221ZJUL2007//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.7S 85.8E TO 10.8S 86.6E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S
86.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 86.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 815 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLID-
ATE WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. A 272021Z
AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTED IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRON-
MENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE DISTURB-
ANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND TRACK INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 290230Z.//

[HurricaneRobert]

Since this region was hit so hard last season (especially in Madagascar), does this mean it will continue this next one?

[P.K.]

About to cross to TCWC Jakarta's AOR although close to TCWC Perth's AOR as well.

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, SUNDAY 29 JULY 2007 AT 1250 UTC .

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE.

NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTH EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS
TOGETHER WITH LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS EXIT BETWEEN LATITUDES 08
TO 18 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDES 75 TO 95 DEGREES EAST.

T.O.O: 291230UTC


PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SUNDAY 29 JULY 2007 - 1200 UTC

TROPICAL LOW 1003 HPA WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES RADIUS OF 9.5
DEGREES SOUTH , 89.5 DEGREES EAST . MOVEMENT SOUTH EAST
10 KT.

WAVE NEAR 04S 65E.

TROUGH ALONG 00S 89E, 05S 92E INTO TROPICAL LOW NEAR 9.5 S
89.5E THEN ALONG 14S 89E, 17S 95E.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG 30S 50E 36S 60E 45S 66E.

HIGH 1028 HPA NEAR 32S 72E.


PART 3: AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 BECOMING NORTH ESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
15 -20 IN SOUTH WESTERN SECTORS. SEA LOCALLY ROUGH. MAINLY FAIR.
VISIBILITY GOOD.


WEST 8/2: SOUTH EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20. SEA ROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE.


EAST 8/2: SOUTH WESTERLY 20-25 GUSTING 30-35 IN SOUTH BECOMING
SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 GUSTY 30 IN NORTH . SEA ROUGH. ISOLATED
SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE.


8/3: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 GUSTY 30. SEA MODERATE TO ROUGH.
MAINLY FAIR. VISIBILITY GOOD.


8/4: SOUTH EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15-25 GUSTING LOCALLY
30-35. SEA ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY RAINY . VISIBILITY MODERATE TO POOR IN SHOWERS.


8/5: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY 15 GUSTING 25. SEA MODERATE . ISOLATED
SHOWERS. RISK FEW THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY MODERATE TO POOR IN
SHOWERS.


CENTRAL 8/6: CLOCKWISE 15-25 AROUND TROPICAL LOW NEAR 9.5S 89.5E.
SEA LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALLY SQUALLY.
VISIBILITY MODERATE TO POOR.


REMAINDER 8/6: EASTERLY TO EAST NORTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN EAST AND
SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY 15-20 IN WEST. GUSTING LOCALLY 30 IN
SOUTHERN SECTORS. SEA ROUGH IN SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS . VISIBILITY
MODERATE.



8/7: SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20 IN SOUTH BECOMING SOUTH EASTERLY 10-15 ,
SOUTHERLY 10-15 IN NORTH. SEA MODERATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS.


PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

LITTLE CHANGE

.

T.O.O: 29/1250 UT=

[HURAKAN]

29/1430 UTC 10.2S 91.0E T2.5/2.5 91S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

29/2030 UTC 10.6S 90.6E T2.5/2.5 91S -- South Indian Ocean

[Coredesat]

We appear to have Tropical Cyclone 01S:

282
TPXS10 PGTW 292110

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (NO NAME)

B. 29/2030Z

C. 11.4S/6

D. 90.6E/5

E. SIX/MET7

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR LLCC

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

AMES

Last estimate from JTWC was T2.5/2.5.

[P.K.]

This has just appeared on RSMC La Reunion's page. 25kt tropical disturbance at 0600 this morning with the number 01R.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/TGPR/saison/16.html