EPac: 08E.NONAME

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RL3AO
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EPac: 08E.NONAME

#1 Postby RL3AO » Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:08 pm

Image

TWO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Last edited by RL3AO on Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:11 pm

Meh, nothing too spectacular. But it doesn't take a lot for an INVEST to form in the EPAC.
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Re:

#3 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:23 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:Meh, nothing too spectacular. But it doesn't take a lot for an INVEST to form in the EPAC.



Or the Atlantic, for that matter. :P

Sounds like another one who will struggle just to get a name.
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#4 Postby TheShrimper » Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:30 pm

Not to discredit anything posted about the EPAC, but it's getting down to showtime a little further to the east. An area where millions may be effected in comparison to no one. We will always take the time to look west, but now the clock says we must look elsewhere. You probably should as well. TheShrimper.
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#5 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Jul 28, 2007 11:43 pm

We look where the action is regardless of where that might be.

Steve
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#6 Postby Chacor » Sun Jul 29, 2007 12:11 am

Aslkahuna wrote:We look where the action is regardless of where that might be.

Steve


Seconded.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 29, 2007 6:43 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SUN JUL 29 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI


Image

When there is a system in the Atlantic, the systems elsewhere get very little attention. But right now there is nothing organized in the Atlantic, so we keep our attention on other systems like Usagi. Nonetheless, every invest that forms in planet Earth, the third from the Sun, is covered here!!
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:16 am

291356
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1356 UTC SUN JUL 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992007) 20070729 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070729 1200 070730 0000 070730 1200 070731 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 115.3W 10.1N 116.8W 10.5N 118.1W 11.0N 119.5W
BAMD 9.8N 115.3W 10.1N 117.4W 10.4N 119.5W 10.7N 121.7W
BAMM 9.8N 115.3W 10.1N 117.0W 10.5N 118.8W 10.9N 120.7W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070731 1200 070801 1200 070802 1200 070803 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 121.1W 13.5N 124.7W 15.4N 128.6W 17.6N 132.6W
BAMD 11.0N 124.1W 11.6N 128.6W 12.0N 132.6W 12.6N 136.2W
BAMM 11.4N 122.9W 12.5N 126.9W 13.6N 130.5W 15.3N 134.0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 115.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 112.5W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 110.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#9 Postby Chacor » Sun Jul 29, 2007 10:17 am

29/1200 UTC 10.8N 115.5W T1.0/1.0 99E -- East Pacific Ocean
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 29, 2007 11:47 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291621
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SUN JUL 29 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
THIS MORNING. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 29, 2007 1:37 pm

29/1800 UTC 10.9N 115.7W T1.5/1.5 99E -- East Pacific Ocean
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#12 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jul 29, 2007 2:00 pm

While this may be a primarily Atlantic board when one is talking tropics, due mainly to the location of the majority of our members,we do not intend to and will not let the other basins go unnoticed or anything of that sort. Our intention is to cover the tropics and weather worldwide. That is one reason we have quite a few members from places other than just the North American continent.
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 29, 2007 2:07 pm


172
WHXX01 KMIA 291859
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1859 UTC SUN JUL 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992007) 20070729 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070729 1800 070730 0600 070730 1800 070731 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 115.9W 11.5N 117.3W 12.1N 118.7W 12.8N 120.3W
BAMD 10.9N 115.9W 11.3N 118.0W 11.7N 120.2W 12.1N 122.5W
BAMM 10.9N 115.9W 11.4N 117.6W 12.0N 119.5W 12.5N 121.4W
LBAR 10.9N 115.9W 11.6N 118.3W 12.3N 121.2W 13.1N 124.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070731 1800 070801 1800 070802 1800 070803 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 122.1W 15.1N 126.2W 16.2N 130.4W 17.5N 134.0W
BAMD 12.4N 124.8W 13.0N 129.2W 13.1N 133.7W 13.5N 137.5W
BAMM 13.1N 123.4W 14.2N 127.4W 15.0N 131.4W 16.2N 134.9W
LBAR 14.1N 127.3W 15.7N 133.1W 16.2N 138.6W 11.1N 142.0W
SHIP 42KTS 44KTS 45KTS 49KTS
DSHP 42KTS 44KTS 45KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 115.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 113.8W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 111.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 29, 2007 2:08 pm

with the Atlantic very quiet, one watching for a USA threat should watch this one as this is the closest thing to a USA threat (and that would be at least 10 days away... if there is a threat at all)
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#15 Postby WmE » Sun Jul 29, 2007 2:10 pm

It's nearing depression strength, but the NHC usually upgrades when it reaches T-numbers of at least T2.0.
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#16 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 29, 2007 4:18 pm

center is exposed... looks like easterly shear, which is what the BAM models were suggesting
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 29, 2007 5:12 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292203
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN JUL 29 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE


Yes,the shear is plenty over there.
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#18 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:36 am

A little bit of a blowup. Still not too impressive.
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Re: EPac: 99E.INVEST

#19 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:52 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT TUE JUL 31 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 1025 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI
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#20 Postby Chacor » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:53 am

747
WHXX01 KMIA 311234
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1234 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992007) 20070731 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070731 1200 070801 0000 070801 1200 070802 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 121.8W 13.6N 124.0W 14.0N 126.1W 14.0N 128.4W
BAMD 13.1N 121.8W 13.6N 124.0W 14.0N 126.2W 14.2N 128.3W
BAMM 13.1N 121.8W 13.7N 124.2W 14.1N 126.5W 14.2N 129.0W
LBAR 13.1N 121.8W 13.6N 124.0W 14.3N 126.5W 14.9N 129.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070802 1200 070803 1200 070804 1200 070805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 130.5W 13.5N 134.1W 13.2N 136.9W 13.2N 139.2W
BAMD 14.3N 130.6W 14.5N 135.1W 15.2N 139.0W 16.4N 142.6W
BAMM 14.1N 131.5W 13.4N 136.0W 13.3N 139.4W 14.3N 142.4W
LBAR 15.5N 131.6W 16.9N 137.3W 17.8N 142.5W 15.3N 143.9W
SHIP 41KTS 48KTS 49KTS 46KTS
DSHP 41KTS 48KTS 49KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 121.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 120.2W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 118.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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