Typhoon Usagi in Western Pacific

[WindRunner]

Up to 45kt with a typhoon at T+24.


RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0705 USAGI (0705)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 18.7N 143.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 21.4N 140.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 311800UTC 25.1N 138.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 011800UTC 30.6N 136.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT

[wxmann_91]

The 500mb pattern progged makes me believe that this system might end up making landfall further west than what the JT track indicates attm.

Does anybody have a link to the TC track & intensity models?

And does anybody know how I can access JTWC?

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/cgi-bin/abpwcreate.cgi
ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/GuamStuff/

Thank you.

[HURAKAN]

05WUSAGI.65kts-974mb

[WindRunner]

And this would be why . . .

[HURAKAN]

NICE!!!

USAGI didn't need much time to become a typhon.

[WindRunner]

Very true.

And by the time the next microwave pass hits it (~23z), I have a feeling that the weak oval of an eye should, if nothing else, be far more circular . . . though an indication of the eye on vis should really help it out in the strength department . . .

[HURAKAN]

USAGI:

[RL3AO]

Looks like another storm for Japan.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like another storm for Japan.

No thought about it.

[RattleMan]

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (USAGI) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 143.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 143.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.1N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.9N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 24.9N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 29.8N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 34.2N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 38.1N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 142.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWA TO HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TY STATUS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS AND EVIDENCE OF
A DEVELOPING EYE ON THE MOST RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

this is still a TS... why does it say TYPHOON on the man TT page? JMA has not yet upgraded this

[chadtm80]

this is still a TS... why does it say TYPHOON on the man TT page? JMA has not yet upgraded this

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp ... ublic.html

[P.K.]

Derek is correct this is not a typhoon yet.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/index.html

[RL3AO]

Only the JMA matters. It is still a tropical storm (probably a severe tropical storm at the next update).

[HURAKAN]

It must be clear to everyone that Usagi is a typhoon under the JTWC statement, but since JMA says it's still a tropical storm, and they're the officials here, then it's still a tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

So why there is an advisory with an upgrade to typhoon from JTWC? And if JMA is the official word over there,why JWTC does advisories then?

[RL3AO]

So why there is an advisory with an upgrade to typhoon from JTWC? And if JMA is the official word over there,why JWTC does advisories then?

Because they can?

[Derek Ortt]

JTWC advisories are for US interests only. Not sure why they dont just use the official information; however.

That said, JTWC is no more official internationally than nwhhc forecasts. JTWC calls something a typhoon because they analyze the storm to be as such... just like I call a TC a cane because I analyze it as such

I wish our media would start reporting the JMA as official

[RL3AO]

Just for U.S. military interests really. Everyone else listens to the JMA.

[Aslkahuna]

JTWC issues the advisories for US Military and Civilian interests in the Western North Pacific. The US Military agencies are NOT about to go with JMA or any other RSMC for their advisories on storms because the advisories do not meet their requirements (which among other things include that sustained winds be expressed as a 1 minute average). Their requirements also include wind radii for various sustained windspeeds as well as a high seas forecast. So it's important to remember that although we here will use the JMA advisories (and it's probably best that JT advisories NOT be posted here to avoid confusion) the USAF forecaster at Kadena AB on Okinawa or Yokota AB near Tokyo or the Navy Forecasters will use (and in fact are required to use) the JTWC advisories.

Steve