Well here we go. It's the end of July and we haven't seen much action. I'm starting to see season cancel posts cropping up here and there. Personally, I think we are going to have an active Aug - October, with things ramping up by mid August. Here are some factors to consider.
-Strong indications of a developing La Nina for the latter part of the season
-Peak of the season is statistically Sept. 10th with an exponential ramp up in activity
starting in early August. This season is about normal so far if you look at mean numbers over the past 50+ years - so nobody should be surprised if you look at climatology
-Extremely hot water content in the NW Caribbean (hotter than 2005)
-Historical evidence of a positive correlation between early season inactivity and later
season activity.
-Long wave pattern has featured a strong EC trough with a weak Bermuda high. Typically
long wave patterns change multiple times in a season so we are due for a change.
In fact some of the global models want to replace the EC troughiness with the western
extent of a very strong Bermuda High starting in about 10-14 days.
-Global models starting to show spurious lows developing off Africa as the ITCZ has continued to move farther north in lattitude.
Anything else?
Let's talk about factors why we cannot say season cancelled here...
