Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[boca]

This is not a drill! This disturbance could be a problem for the northeast Caribbean (mostly rain threat) and the southeast U.S. (possibly TS/Hurricane threat) over the coming week or so. Doesn't look as organized on a visible satellite loop as on a still shot. Mid level spin evident around 10N/47.5W. I see one ship reporting a wind of about 280/20kts, but it's over 300 miles southwest of the disturbance. There's a thunderstorm in the vicinity of the ship (just WNW of it), so the wind could be an outflow boundary. It's too far away to be within any developing LLC.

Wxman57 do you think the models on this site are too far south since you said watch this one SE US.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_99.gif

[skysummit]

Boca....IMO, the SE U.S. is everything from Louisiana on eastward.

[Bluefrog]

I am just not ready for this ... already too stressed.

[boca]

True, point taken. Lets see if it becomes a depression.

[tailgater]

I think they will riot if this doesn't develop.

[bvigal]

Everybody just CALM DOWN. The models haven't all been run, it is very, very early on, no need to be projecting this as a hurricane hitting the U.S. mainland! Wxman, I understand, and as a resident of NE Caribbean, I greatly appreciate your comment that 'this is not a drill, etc,' and folks here aren't exactly "hoping we can get a TD out of it" (boca: bad boy -you owe me a drink, buddy! ).

[Praxus]

Looking like a strong threat to Jamaica as well, assuming it develops obviously.

[drezee]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 01/1800Z NEAR 12N 57W.

[Meso]

Shear

Shear Tendency

[Weatherfreak14]

True, point taken. Lets see if it becomes a depression.

I think it is very close of being a depression very soon.

[Scorpion]

Finally something to watch. Shear is looking favorable.... time to pull out my tracking map

[boca]

Everybody just CALM DOWN. The models haven't all been run, it is very, very early on, no need to be projecting this as a hurricane hitting the U.S. mainland! Wxman, I understand, and as a resident of NE Caribbean, I greatly appreciate your comment that 'this is not a drill, etc,' and folks here aren't exactly "hoping we can get a TD out of it" (boca: bad boy -you owe me a drink, buddy! ).

We were drinking at our gathering this past Saturday. If this turns into a depression I'll buy you a six pack or a bottle of Vodka.

[gatorcane]

If Wxman is saying this is not a drill I am closely watching......looks like trouble is brewing for the Caribbean and possible GOM or SE US down the road....

[Decomdoug]

Looks like it is going to be moving into a favorible environment.

Let the games begin!

[bvigal]

Everybody just CALM DOWN. The models haven't all been run, it is very, very early on, no need to be projecting this as a hurricane hitting the U.S. mainland! Wxman, I understand, and as a resident of NE Caribbean, I greatly appreciate your comment that 'this is not a drill, etc,' and folks here aren't exactly "hoping we can get a TD out of it" (boca: bad boy -you owe me a drink, buddy! ).

We were drinking at our gathering this past Saturday. If this turns into a depression I'll buy you a six pack or a bottle of Vodka.

It's a deal! er, can I request a bottle of Tequila Gold instead?

I know the GFS has been showing this for a few days, perhaps a td, and yesterday nogap picked up on it. Was surprised this a.m. to see neither UK or Canadian had it. (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/) Will be interesting to see what 12z models do with it. The dust has gone in the area which has squelched activity last couple of weeks. We need some rain, and badly, but nobody wants to fill their cisterns via a TD or worse!

[gatorcane]

looking at it this morning I wouldn't be surprise if the NHC mentions it in either the morning or afternoon discussion....and when they indicate development is possible as the wave moves west at 10-15mph things are going to erupt here as global models are pointing at the SE US and Caribbean.

[TheRingo]

But the BAMM's are showing a low rider through the Carribean? GFS showing the low going through the Fl Straits? Which one is it?

The BAMM is probably more accurate at this stage of development. GFS is better for later development.

[gatorcane]

folks here (between 45 and 50W) is what *should* keep this board jumping for the next 10 days:

I'm not liking the looks of this thing and its low lattitude will definitely keep it from going fishing.

[Blown Away]

There is nice burst of convection and a spin near 10/45.5.

[gatorcane]

Wxman and all,

Couldn't this thing just remain a low tracker and hit Mexico? What are the global factors that suggest it will be a U.S. threat down the road...?