Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

dwg71 · #461 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:22 am

Lets see what it does when it seperates itself and traverses the dry air ahead of it.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Frank2 · #462 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:22 am

Something is bound to form at some point (it's been two months since Barry), but, 99 is more of an ITCZ disturbance than anything...

Per the NHC - there are many of these disturbances each year...

We'll see what happens...

hurricanefloyd5 · #463 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:22 am

Whoo Hoo 99L looks preety good to me LOL!!!!!!!!

boca · #464 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:23 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:I give this a 40% chance of this becoming a depression at 11pm advisory and a 60% of a depression at 5pm advisory.

I agree but I think you meant 40% at 11am.

Frank2 · #465 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:23 am

I can"t wait to see (c) the C name and maybe the D name!!!!!!!!!!!

But I'm in no rush to pay $5 for a gallon of gasoline...

P.S. No TD today, folks - the NHC might mention this at 11:30, but, it'll be at least tomorrow morning before they even begin to mention the TD possibility...

#466 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:24 am

I think the NHC will wait until the 11pm to make an classifications on this thing......I don't expect them to say it is a depression at 11:00AM.....but they should indicate a strong tropical wave should be watched

probably tonight.l..

Weatherfreak14 · #467 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:25 am

boca wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:I give this a 40% chance of this becoming a depression at 11pm advisory and a 60% of a depression at 5pm advisory.

I agree but I think you meant 40% at 11am.

yea i did, sry i changed it, its looking really good right now, it looks very close to a depression right now.

Weathermaster · #468 Postby **Weathermaster** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:26 am

The National Weather Service office in San Juan mentioned it in their discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
706 AM AST MON JUL 30 2007

WE WILL BE WATCHING EXPANDING
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
CLOSELY...WITH LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWING AN APPARENT WEAK
LOW NEAR 9N44.5 WEST.

I think it could become a TD tomorrow.

Cyclone1 · #469 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:29 am

Nope, nothing by 11am, I'm afraid. It doesn't even have a TCFA. (I know those aren't necessary, but they help.) I wouldn;t rule out 5pm, though. I'm also not ruling out 98L today.

Derecho · #470 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:30 am

Looked at all the model shear forecasts and even as far south as it's shown moving by the BAMD, it looks like it gets sheared pretty badly by a TUTT in 2-3 days which never really relents.

Could have some time to develop in the next 1-2 days though.

#471 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:31 am

Frank2 wrote:
I can"t wait to see (c) the C name and maybe the D name!!!!!!!!!!!

But I'm in no rush to pay $5 for a gallon of gasoline...

P.S. No TD today, folks - the NHC might mention this at 11:30, but, it'll be at least tomorrow morning before they even begin to mention the TD possibility...

We didn't have $5 gas with Katrina, and I doubt we will see $5 gas anytime in the future.
With that said, looks like 99L will be fighting a lot of dry air.

punkyg · #472 Postby **punkyg** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:31 am

Hey Blown_away you and boca have the same picture how cute.
Any ways i don't think they will upgrade this to td status yet.
we know they are gonna make us wait til 5:00pm or 11:00pm
and know i can't wait that long with out freaking out.

#473 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:32 am

lets hope it does and doesn't get into the GOM, gas prices could actually readh $5 a gallon....of course no need to panic at this point..it could fizzle....

WmE · #474 Postby **WmE** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:32 am

Well, it does look good, that's all I can say, but I don't think that it will be declared today.

MusicCityMan · #475 Postby **MusicCityMan** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:33 am

I guess I've been sleeping the last couple days lol.. I only noticed this 1 right now.. I've been paying more attention to the 1 much closer 2 home by Bermuda..

anyway.. I think it may become a td within 48 hours.. and btw.. those of u in the islands should keep a close eye on it in case it blows up..

#476 Postby **msbee** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:34 am

bvigal wrote:Everybody just CALM DOWN. The models haven't all been run, it is very, very early on, no need to be projecting this as a hurricane hitting the U.S. mainland! Wxman, I understand, and as a resident of NE Caribbean, I greatly appreciate your comment that 'this is not a drill, etc,' and folks here aren't exactly "hoping we can get a TD out of it" (boca: bad boy -you owe me a drink, buddy! ).

Ditto. I appreciate wxman's comment also..

#477 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:35 am

gatorcane wrote:I think the NHC will wait until the 11pm to make an classifications on this thing......I don't expect them to say it is a depression at 11:00AM.....but they should indicate a strong tropical wave should be watched

probably tonight.l..

I think they'll wait for recon on Wednesday before doing anything on it. It has to have an LLC first, and it will also have to persist for a day or two before the NHC considers calling it a TD.

cnflstormchaser · #478 Postby **cnflstormchaser** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:36 am

I have to agree I don't see them classifying this system today. They are going to see if it persists... maybe tomorrow afternoon or evening I think.

WmE · #479 Postby **WmE** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:36 am

A recon is scheduled for Wednesday, right? (If necessary)

x-y-no · #480 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:37 am

wxman57 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I think the NHC will wait until the 11pm to make an classifications on this thing......I don't expect them to say it is a depression at 11:00AM.....but they should indicate a strong tropical wave should be watched

probably tonight.l..

I think they'll wait for recon on Wednesday before doing anything on it. It has to have an LLC first, and it will also have to persist for a day or two before the NHC considers calling it a TD.

Yeah, probably so unless its satellite presentation dramatically improves.

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