INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[Chacor]

Since we're on 25 pages on the first thread, I thought I should start a second.

I'll repeat my question:

Just came back from watching the Simpsons movie, so am not up to speed... is this the one that moved off Africa a few days ago?

[Cyclone1]

Since we're on 25 pages on the first thread, I thought I should start a second.

I'll repeat my question:

Just came back from watching the Simpsons movie, so am not up to speed... is this the one that moved off Africa a few days ago?

No, that one kinda went poof. This is one that moved off quite a while ago. I wanna see that movie, BTW.

[CrazyC83]

Could we have Chantal AND Dean in the week ahead?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Chantal is hiding and we have to SEEK her out!!!!!!!!!LOL

[Cyclone1]

Could we have Chantal AND Dean in the week ahead?

I would say, yes. Which is why I laugh at season cancelers. Just last night people were canceling 2007.

[dixiebreeze]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 30 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-068

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 01/1800Z NEAR 12N 57W.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[HURAKAN]

FLOAT 2:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[KatDaddy]

Does anyone have a link to the latest model run graphic? SHIPS is bring it up to 76kts. With the current ridging setting up this week it could eventually become a GOM threat.

[CrazyC83]

Could we have Chantal AND Dean in the week ahead?

I would say, yes. Which is why I laugh at season cancelers. Just last night people were canceling 2007.

If we get both, we'd be only one behind 1995...

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_99.gif

[lilbump3000]

[punkyg]

So far i'm liking the bamm model.

[HURAKAN]

The Caribbean didn't see a lot of action last year, Ernesto was barely a hurricane and Alberto was a depression. So I guess the waters most be prime for cyclonic activity. Let see what happens. Persistence is the key.

[hurricanetrack]

Just curious as to why you all think that none of the global modes develop this much at all? It would be one thing if they all were bullish on it, but they are all showing very little development. Hard to get excited about a system that none of the best global computer models in the world develop. There has to be a reason for this....any thoughts?

[Chacor]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS AREA SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[wxman57]

I just worked up a preliminary track, assuming only minimal development over the next 3-5 days. My track takes it about 100 miles south of Jamaica next Sunday night. BAMS moves it at supersonic speed to the middle Gulf in 5 days, not very likely. I'm using an average speed of about 12.4 kts on my forecast, which appears to coincide with low to mid-level steering flow. If it were to develop very quickly, then a more northerly track is likely. The longer it takes, the farther west it will go.

The key is persistence. Many disturbances reach this stage of organization each year, but only a few become named storms. If the squalls persist near the mid-level rotation for another day or two, then it has a good shot at developing.

[MusicCityMan]

Looks like Caribbean then maybe GOM.. but if the orange one pans out.. possibly look out extreme South Fla and then GOM..

[wxman57]

Just curious as to why you all think that none of the global modes develop this much at all? It would be one thing if they all were bullish on it, but they are all showing very little development. Hard to get excited about a system that none of the best global computer models in the world develop. There has to be a reason for this....any thoughts?

Maybe it's a sign that this disturbance actually has a shot at developing? The global models are not very good at picking up on TC development most of the time. Much depends on how the models were initialized, too. We just don't know how the region around 99L was initialized in the models.

[KatDaddy]

Hey WXman it looks like this is headed toward the GOM but much could happen as you stated. It could go poof or right over Mexico. However it is something to watch over the week and into the weekend.

[wxman57]

Looks like Caribbean then maybe GOM.. but if the orange one pans out.. possibly look out extreme South Fla and then GOM..

The orange one is not a model, it's a combination of climatology and persistence.