INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[gatorcane]

Wxman could you create one of those nice graphics that you make regarding possible directions this thing can go????

I am curious what could happen down the road...

[Stormcenter]

Come on now folks this thing hasn't even developed or moved into the Carribean (if it does)
and some of you are already jumping the gun saying it is a GOM threat and whatever.
It may just go poof like many have done in the past. We had many false alarms like this last season.

[jrod]

It could still go poof, sure but I really think this one has potential. There may already be a closed circulation and if the storms dissipate anytime soon I am certain they'll refire

[MGC]

Other than a little dry air surrounding 99L, I see no negative enviromental factors to preclude development. There is notable cyclonic spin evident on the sat loop. If convection persists I'd say chances of development are good....MGC

[dwg71]

Other than a little dry air surrounding 99L, I see no negative enviromental factors to preclude development. There is notable cyclonic spin evident on the sat loop. If convection persists I'd say chances of development are good....MGC

The dry air is going to be a factor, we will see.

[gatorcane]

to me this is classic 2004 at this time. We have a huge EC trough with a system slipping in underneath at a low lattitude and slowly developing...meanwhile the Bermuda ridge is trying hard to build back in and fight of the trough to the west which will allow our system to stay on a general WNW to W track for several days...reminds me of Dennis, Ivan, or Charley....but lets hope it doesn't take the same path...

[OuterBanker]

Bathwater in the Atlantic and Gulf not good for anyone west of 70 if this runs the gauntlet.

[x-y-no]

to me this is classic 2004 at this time. We have a huge EC trough with a system slipping in underneath at a low lattitude and slowly developing...meanwhile the Bermuda ridge is trying hard to build back in and fight of the trough to the west which will allow our system to stay on a general WNW to W track for several days...reminds me of Dennis, Ivan, or Charley....but lets hope it doesn't take the same path...

It's reminiscent of the setup for several of the 2004 storms, yes.

[RL3AO]

Alex formed tomorrow in 2004. Just sayin.

[alan1961]

Get the barbie out..lets have a pre-Chantal party before she goes " poof "

[canegrl04]

If this should become hurricane CHantal,it will be just about right on time ,since the avg. first cane develops on July 31,according to records going back to 1965

[canegrl04]

Get the barbie out..lets have a pre-Chantal party before she goes " poof "

For a moment,I was wondering what a Barbie doll had to do with it I now understand what you meant

[GeneratorPower]

Come on now folks this thing hasn't even developed or moved into the Carribean (if it does)
and some of you are already jumping the gun saying it is a GOM threat and whatever.
It may just go poof like many have done in the past. We had many false alarms like this last season.

Look at the steering currents and water temps ahead of this thing. I don't think it's jumping the gun to discuss these possibilities. The fact that it might "go poof" should be understood by anybody who uses this board regularly. Let's discuss the possibilities without reprimanding people, please. Everyone is free to put their thoughts out there.

Plus, let's cut each other some slack. Some of us have livelihoods that are influenced by tropical weather. It gets exciting. Sometimes we hype and sometimes we don't. It is not a problem until it gets out of hand, and I don't think we're anywhere near that.

[gatorcane]

looks like the previous spin at about 45.5W that some of us were pointing at is fizzling...the system has definitely gained some lattitude and the spin seems to be consolidating under the convection which has shifted farther north....so perhaps the models may want to shift it north some. In my experience the shallow BAMs always want to race these things across the caribbean towards the Yucatan...but that rarely happens....the NE islands including the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico as well as the Greater Antilles should monitor the progress of this developing situation...

[wxman57]

BAMS moves it at supersonic speed to the middle Gulf in 5 days, not very likely.

BAMS is not a model. It uses the current surface wind data and says that if they don't change one bit for the next five days and the storm is only directed by the surface winds, where would it end up. As you can see, that's a pretty unreliable forecast--as the surface winds are constantly changing, and storms are not directed by only one or the other atmospheric layer. It does give a weak indication however of where something might go--at least until the dynamic models start picking up on it. Personally, I agree with your prediction of it being south of Jamaica.

BAMS is the shallow-layer version of the Beta and Advection Model. So it is a model, it's just not very dynamic (same as BAMM/BAMD). The best use of the BAM models is for a system trapped by the Bermuda high moving to the west in the deep tropics where steering patterns aren't changing with time.

[Javlin]

Come on now folks this thing hasn't even developed or moved into the Carribean (if it does)
and some of you are already jumping the gun saying it is a GOM threat and whatever.
It may just go poof like many have done in the past. We had many false alarms like this last season.

Look at the steering currents and water temps ahead of this thing. I don't think it's jumping the gun to discuss these possibilities. The fact that it might "go poof" should be understood by anybody who uses this board regularly. Let's discuss the possibilities without reprimanding people, please. Everyone is free to put their thoughts out there.

Plus, let's cut each other some slack. Some of us have livelihoods that are influenced by tropical weather. It gets exciting. Sometimes we hype and sometimes we don't. It is not a problem until it gets out of hand, and I don't think we're anywhere near that.

I think that's a valid point GP for me this is the point that the old hound dog on the porch(that would be Frank P's porch ) opens one eye from time to time,just slightly curious.

[wxman57]

Come on now folks this thing hasn't even developed or moved into the Carribean (if it does)
and some of you are already jumping the gun saying it is a GOM threat and whatever.
It may just go poof like many have done in the past. We had many false alarms like this last season.

My clients in the NW Gulf might disagree with that thinking. Some of them in the deepwater areas off Louisiana require nearly 6 days to safely shut down operations and evacuate. That means, they'll have to make a decision whether to begin shutdown procedures in the next day or two. Considering the cost may run in the millions per day, that's a big decision. They can't wait until it reaches the east Caribbean as there won't be time to safely shut things down if it becomes a threat. For the general public though, it's a long way from forcing any actions on the Gulf coast.

[DESTRUCTION5]

to me this is classic 2004 at this time. We have a huge EC trough with a system slipping in underneath at a low lattitude and slowly developing...meanwhile the Bermuda ridge is trying hard to build back in and fight of the trough to the west which will allow our system to stay on a general WNW to W track for several days...reminds me of Dennis, Ivan, or Charley....but lets hope it doesn't take the same path...

I told you this Gator a few threads back you made!

[wxman57]

Alex formed tomorrow in 2004. Just sayin.

Remember, I promised my boss after Barry sneaked in on June 1st that there would be no more named storms until August.

[gatorcane]

ironically Wxman is usually the one axing development on this board...in this case he is leaning towards a POSSIBLE situation for the GOM.....

that speaks for itself...