INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[Stormcenter]

Does anyone remember Tropical Storm Earl a few years back.. He was in the same area and looked to be a GOM threat. BUT WENT........*POOF

I remember Earl....a lot of hype with it too.

I personally give this a 10-20% chance of
becoming anything significant. You just
never know with these tropical disturbances.

[gatorcane]

This wave/developing weak low may have a similar evolution to Chantal... the 2001 version that is

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Chan ... _track.png

[Blown Away]

Everyone from Venezuela to New England should be watching this closely

Fixed your post

Ok, thats alot better and i pretty much ment to say that.!!!

Ernesto is a good example. He was an absolute WGOM threat, than a can't miss Central Gulf threat, than it clipped E FL, than up to the Carolinas. That was a big emotional swing for everybody. I thought we might need a WGOM's vs SFL members royal rumble.

[Weatherfreak14]

Ok, thats alot better and i pretty much ment to say that.!!!

[/quote]
Ernesto is a good example. He was an absolute WGOM threat, than a can't miss Central Gulf threat, than it clipped E FL, than up to the Carolinas. That was a big emotional swing for everybody. I thought we might need a WGOM's vs SFL members royal rumble.[/quote


Haha, i remeber saying when it was predicted to go to TX, i said it was to go through flordia and hit the Carolinias.LOL and i was in Cape Hatteras when it hit, scary night in a camper.

[HURAKAN]

I know many people want to see Chantal and Dean and the ones after them, but so far what we have is a weak disturbance. It has a MLC and weak convection, and very disorganized. Yes, it has been showing signs of development, but that doesn't mean it will develop. Lets wait about 24 hours and have patience. Lets not start making comparisons with beasts from the past.

Chantal will come, Dean will too, and Erin will make its appearance, and if the forecasts are right, we may even see up to Melissa or Noel. Give time to time. In a season there are many disturbances, but few cyclones.

[gatorcane]

well folks we are nearing the diurnal minimum for our system.......and there is still some concentrate convection sustaining over the possible LLC...

Tonight we will hit a diurnal maximum. As we are saying the next 24 hours...critical for our system...

[vaffie]

It doesn't seem like the GFDL initialized it very well this first time. At 12Z it said the center was at 9.5N, 45.0W, whereas at 18Z, according to the Dvorak output, it's at 9.8N, 48.7W. That would mean that it was off by over 200 miles.

[Dean4Storms]

Alot of dry air on its northern periphery, it is going to be tough for it to develop.

I give it a 20% chance mostly because it is starting to get some model support.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Charley?

Let's just say "NO TO CHARLEY"!!!!

I would really hate to be staring down the barrel of that gun again!! We dodged the bullet that time and the folks to our south got nailed. Our fortune, their misfortune. I just really don't want to find out what it will be like when the Tampa Bay area's "LUCK" finally runs out!! I'll pray that it's not anytime soon that's for sure!!

[wxman57]

Here's a recent high-res McIDAS shot I took:

[skysummit]

Call me crazy, but my eyes are seeing something happening....

[SouthFLTropics]

This system does look impressive but it has a few obstacles to overcome. IF it survives the dry air then I'd give it a shot. BUT on top of that it needs to gain some lattitude or it's going to crash right into South America before it gets it's act going.

[seaswing]

hmmmm. looks interesting

[punkyg]

It looks better.

[Brent]

Call me crazy, but my eyes are seeing something happening....

NICE flareup... looks like something potentially bad(good for the storm).

[brunota2003]

Ok, thats alot better and i pretty much ment to say that.!!!

Ernesto is a good example. He was an absolute WGOM threat, than a can't miss Central Gulf threat, than it clipped E FL, than up to the Carolinas. That was a big emotional swing for everybody. I thought we might need a WGOM's vs SFL members royal rumble.

Haha, i remeber saying when it was predicted to go to TX, i said it was to go through flordia and hit the Carolinias.LOL and i was in Cape Hatteras when it hit, scary night in a camper.

Haha, and as I said as well with Ernesto, never assume anything, tropical meteorology is not an exact science and things do change (extremely quickly I might add). As for this system, it looks alright for late July...cant wait for the 5:30 TWO though.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Call me crazy, but my eyes are seeing something happening....

If you insist, I'll call you crazy but, it looks like a pretty good bit of red in the belly of that beast!

[gatorcane]

Here's another shot. Notice the flareup but also the dry air to the north.

[la wave]

Boy, there is still a great deal of very dry air to the north and west of 99l. I would be somewhat surprised if this aoi develops. Check out the LSU ESL website for graphics.

[miamicanes177]

12Z hwrf does not make it that strong. Just south of Jamaica at 126 hours and 999mb.