INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[Normandy]

Derek i see the center as being very broad and located between 12N and 10N.

[Cyclone1]

Derek i see the center as being very broad and located between 12N and 10N.

I agree with Derek, it looks to be exactly on the 10 degree line.

[Blown Away]

Derek i see the center as being very broad and located between 12N and 10N.

I agree with Derek, it looks to be exactly on the 10 degree line.

Then it's not under the strong convection blob near 11N/49W.

[Normandy]

^No its most certainly not under that "strong" convective blow....its more ESE of it.

One thing of note is the amazing easterly surge Derek pointed out....the low level clouds are racing ahead of the disturbance....Id imagine it might be hard for an LLC to establish itself unless it fires off some intense convection tonight....that being said, its structure looks phenomenal.

[Weatherfreak14]

Derek i see the center as being very broad and located between 12N and 10N.

I agree with Derek, it looks to be exactly on the 10 degree line.

Then it's not under the strong convection blob near 11N/49W.

No, it looks like now that blob is now starting to wrap around the weak center.

[skysummit]

No, it's not. When I circled that area earlier, I thought for sure it would be the beginning of another large burst of convection, but it wasn't.

[windstorm99]

I think development if any will be slow as 99L will be moving into a very dry airmass in the caribbean.

[canegrl04]

The dreaded dry air. If it can survive that,it most certainly will become a TS

[Blown Away]

10.7N
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Weatherfreak14]

I feel that this system will not have much problem in the dry air. it will hurt it but it still has a moist bubble around it...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this may have more potential when it reaches the central and western caribbean (assuming it survives). If it can get there and still look this good, then it may have a shot at becoming our first serious storm of the season. I wouldn't be surprised if this is upgraded to a TD tomorrow or Wednesday though, because the structure does look pretty good.

BTW: I just checked and shear does seem to be pretty low in the caribbean right now... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

[Brent]

I think this may have more potential when it reaches the central and western caribbean (assuming it survives). If it can get there and still look this good, then it may have a shot at becoming our first serious storm of the season. I wouldn't be surprised if this is upgraded to a TD tomorrow or Wednesday though, because the structure does look pretty good.

Agreed.

I think if it holds together it's best chance at getting upgraded will be when it's near the Windwards on Wednesday... that seems to be a prime spot, plus with the recon scheduled. That's also close to where Charley and Dennis formed.

[dwg71]

I feel that this system will not have much problem in the dry air. it will hurt it but it still has a moist bubble around it...

Assuming it can seperate itself, it will not have the moisture to tap into. If it does not, it wont develop. Either way its going to be difficult for it to maintain itself from 50 to 60W.

['CaneFreak]

I think development if any will be slow as 99L will be moving into a very dry airmass in the caribbean.

[img] http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t48hrs.gif [/img]

Take a look at this map folks. The Carribean may be dry right now, but look at the moist air mass with our system and look at the moisture tendencies. The atmosphere is finally moistening up as the early season dry airmass is now being replaced with a more moist environment. Dry air will have a hard time penetrating this moist bubble as the dry air is staying pretty far to the north for the MOST PART.

[NONAME]

Blow near 10-11n 49-50w it getting bigger.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

[skysummit]

Time must be wrong......


000
ABNT20 KNHC 302120
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...IS CENTERED ABOUT 215 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OR NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Cyclone1]

Yep, flare up right on schedule.

[windstorm99]

530 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007 Little mistake there...LOL!

[RL3AO]

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[canegrl04]

CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS


Wow. So maybe this will become a TD by midweek