INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[artist]

seeing we have a new director over there I would think it will take awhile to know if he will be as conservative or not. I think by the end of this season we can probably have a good idea but personally think it's too early to tell.

[skysummit]

[PTrackerLA]

Latest images from ghcc show some convection popping up on the east side of the "circulation". Whether this is just popcorn convection or possibly the start of a true re-fire remains to be seen.

[Fego]

This is from the NWS in San Juan...

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48/49W HAS BEEN GIVING GFS TROUBLE PAST
DAYS. HOWEVER...DESPITE MISLEADING 06Z GFS RUN...12Z RUNS OF
GLOBAL MODELS BECOMING MORE CONCLUSIVE...WITH THIS WAVE NOW EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARED THIS
MORNING THAT CNVTN AND LLVL CIRCULATION OF THIS WAVE MAY HAVE BEEN
ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE CIRCULAR...BUT STLT IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE PASSES STILL SUGGEST AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION...AND ANY
CHANCE THIS FEATURE MIGHT HAVE TO INTENSIFY WOULD SEEM MOST LIKELY
ONLY TO YIELD A VERY SMALL MIDGET TYPE SYSTEM. NHC IS MONITORING
THIS SYSTEM AND RUNNING NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

[MusicCityMan]

By tomorrow it might say "a tropical cyclone is possible to form with in the next 24-48 hours" lol or something along those lines..

[Derek Ortt]

the circulation looks better now because there are no more high clouds obscuring the low clouds. This has not become better organized at all today. If anything, it is less organized due to the hostile conditions

[HurricaneHunter914]

This thing is getting killed right now. The dry air is really taking it's toll. I doubt there's going to be anything left of it after tomorrow.

[Cyclone1]

This thing is getting killed right now. The dry air is really taking it's toll. I doubt there's going to be anything left of it after tomorrow.

I disagree. It'll be better than it was today by morning.

[MusicCityMan]

I agree as well.. convections been blossoming today.. I say we could very easily be in the making of Chantal or Dean and should have at least a td by possibly mid week..

[abajan]

the circulation looks better now because there are no more high clouds obscuring the low clouds. This has not become better organized at all today. If anything, it is less organized due to the hostile conditions

I'm certainly glad to hear that because I was somewhat alarmed at how it looked when I checked the latest pix a few minutes ago.

Anything developing in that area is usually bad news for Barbados.

[Blown Away]

On the IR the oranges, yellows, and blue's are decreasing dramatically. Looks like 99L is gulping dry air now.

[NONAME]

What nobody seem to be getting and maybe I just dumb or something but do they not notice that most wave before they become a Tropical Depression is that sometimes they don’t have much convection and then at and then they refire convection its called diurnal Max and Minimum.

[punkyg]

Meet possible Chantel

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

and possibly her brother Dean behind her.

[RL3AO]

Meet possible Chantel

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

and possibly her brother Dean behind her.

Or maybe meet Dean and his sister Erin.

[Steve]

I don't get it. How are the next 4 hours "critical" to this system? How is tonight "now or never" for it to get its act together? Any a y'all ever heard of patience? Yeah, we've got spin. And yes, there is some convection. But should 99L form any time soon, it's as liable to be a fish spinner as it is to survive any trek across the entirety of the Caribbean Sea. That's not usually happening in July or early August although there is limited precedent. Look for the convection to continue on its merry way teasing and screwing with a bunch of you before it becomes anything - if it ever does.

My call.

Steve

[tailgater]

ttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atls ... testBW.gif
TPC thinks it has a a chance of development.

[colbroe]

discussion 8pm
A broad area of multilayered clouds with scattered showers from
7n-13n between 44w-53w is centered about 800 miles E of the S
Windward Islands and is associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development
of this system over the next couple of days.

[Ivanhater]

I don't get it. How are the next 4 hours "critical" to this system? How is tonight "now or never" for it to get its act together? Any a y'all ever heard of patience? Yeah, we've got spin. And yes, there is some convection. But should 99L form any time soon, it's as liable to be a fish spinner as it is to survive any trek across the entirety of the Caribbean Sea. That's not usually happening in July or early August although there is limited precedent. Look for the convection to continue on its merry way teasing and screwing with a bunch of you before it becomes anything - if it ever does.

My call.

Steve

Amen! couldnt have said it better myself

[mahmoo]

Here's a hypothetical question and I'd be interested in your hypothetical replies..........If one had plans to fly from New Orleans on Aug 7th to Fort Lauderdale and then from Fort Lauderdale to New Orleans on Aug 11th should one be worrying too much about a hurricane at that time in those areas?

[windstorm99]

Wow this thing is really taking in some dry air...Better get some convection going or we will have a naked swirl out there before you know it.