Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

Website · #481 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:49 pm

This thing looks impressive... I really hope it gets upgraded, gets a name off the list. 8-)

#482 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:49 pm

And remember when it gets moving faster, the shear won't be as strong since it is moving with the shear.

Cyclone1 · #483 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:51 pm

Pleas continue conversation at second thread. And lock this one. It's reached 25 pages.

Regit · #484 Postby **Regit** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:52 pm

Actually it just reached 24

Cyclone1 · #485 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:53 pm

Regit wrote:Actually it just reached 24

Okay. My bad.

#486 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:56 pm

When the second thread is unlocked, can you include the link.

Cyclone1 · #487 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:57 pm

I didn't know it was locked. But ok.

WindRunner · #488 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:58 pm

RL3AO wrote:And remember when it gets moving faster, the shear won't be as strong since it is moving with the shear.

Yes, but increased forward speed is also a sign of ET . . . and when you're marginally tropical or subtropical to begin with . . . ET takes virtually no time to complete . . .

#489 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:10 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:Pleas continue conversation at second thread. And lock this one. It's reached 25 pages.

When it reaches the full 25 pages.

Cyclone1 · #490 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:11 pm

Oh ok, lol.

#491 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:25 pm

30/2345 UTC 35.4N 65.9W EXTRATROPICAL 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

The latest SSD dvorak data has it as extratropical low.

Cyclone1 · #492 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:26 pm

I'm kinda dissapointed...

Thunder44 · #493 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:33 pm

Now that this system has passed Bermuda, my gut feeling is that the NHC is now going to let this one go. No matter what, it probably pose a threat to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as a strong non-tropical low.

Jam151 · #494 Postby **Jam151** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:36 pm

recent SSMI pass shows huge swath of 30kt winds with some isolated 40kt winds...and these aren't even where the deepest convection is...

#495 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:30/2345 UTC 35.4N 65.9W EXTRATROPICAL 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

The latest SSD dvorak data has it as extratropical low.

You got to be kiding me, WOW!!!

Regit · #496 Postby **Regit** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:38 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Now that this system has passed Bermuda, my gut feeling is that the NHC is now going to let this one go. No matter what, it probably pose a threat to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as a strong non-tropical low.

I'd be surprised to see it named, but I've been surprised before.

WindRunner · #497 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:40 pm

I will say that the AMSU graphics from CIMSS (found here for 98L) do seem to show that it is now devoid of fronts with a very weak warm core . . . but the extratropical T-numbers don't bode well at all . . .

#498 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:48 pm

I will now try to "relax" and watch "The Hills have eyes 2," that's why the quotation marks in relax!!!

Will be back @ 11 to check on little Chantal-wanna-be-if-NHC-allows-to.

Thunder44 · #499 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:48 pm

WindRunner wrote:I will say that the AMSU graphics from CIMSS (found here for 98L) do seem to show that it is now devoid of fronts with a very weak warm core . . . but the extratropical T-numbers don't bode well at all . . .

The Dvorak estimates are interesting but not that important. If NHC went soley by ST 1.5 numbers, earlier, they would of declared a sub-tropical depression.

WindRunner · #500 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 7:50 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 310042
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070731 0000 070731 1200 070801 0000 070801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.5N 66.1W 37.8N 64.7W 39.7N 62.6W 40.9N 59.8W
BAMD 35.5N 66.1W 38.2N 64.3W 41.0N 61.2W 43.8N 56.0W
BAMM 35.5N 66.1W 37.9N 64.6W 40.3N 62.1W 42.3N 58.1W
LBAR 35.5N 66.1W 38.1N 64.1W 41.1N 61.3W 44.4N 56.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070802 0000 070803 0000 070804 0000 070805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.8N 57.1W 42.6N 51.3W 42.9N 46.8W 44.0N 43.1W
BAMD 47.0N 48.5W 54.8N 27.7W 62.6N 17.8W 65.2N 19.9W
BAMM 44.3N 53.1W 49.0N 36.3W 56.3N 17.4W 63.2N 10.0W
LBAR 48.6N 48.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 53KTS 41KTS 16KTS
DSHP 53KTS 53KTS 41KTS 16KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.5N LONCUR = 66.1W DIRCUR = 25DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 32.7N LONM12 = 67.6W DIRM12 = 24DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 31.0N LONM24 = 70.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Pressure down to 1007 . . . but no increase in wind. That's subtropical unto itself . . .

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