INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[Blown Away]

I think the GFDL does not develop 99L anymore.

[vaffie]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

As mentioned above, the NHC is predicting a closed surface low of 1007 mb at 15N, 65W on Thursday night.

[alan1961]

On this latest infrared still the LLC/MLC can clearly be seen.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[TheRingo]

well I must admit I'm seeing new convection now as the night hours progress.

[Ivanhater]

At this point...this wave has the best structure we have seen this season

[skufful]

well I must admit I'm seeing new convection now as the night hours progress.

I'm on the East Coast, and it's not night yet here, and this invest is a good bit east of me.

[windstorm99]

It better gain some convection if not were gonna have something like this in the coming hours.

Naked chris back in 2006....



Lastest GFDL went from a CAT1 to now barely a TD...We'll see what happens.

[TheRingo]

well I must admit I'm seeing new convection now as the night hours progress.

I'm on the East Coast, and it's not night yet here, and this invest is a good bit east of me.

it shouldn't matter because the sun's heat has been on the decline for a few hours now. so the water surface temp to atmosphere temp should be deviating from each other.

[Blown Away]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
As mentioned above, the NHC is predicting a closed surface low of 1007 mb at 15N, 65W on Thursday night.

Basically, if it stays a wave it will move more W which is depicted by the NHC 15N/65W position on Thursday, if it develops soon it will gain latitude and be N of the 15N/65W position on Thrusday. IMO

[Derek Ortt]

doesnt matter if this develops or not. The deep layer steering will take this to the west. Only difference is in forward speed. A shallow system will move faster, but it is not going to gain latitude even if it were to become a cat 5, not with the steering winds straight out of the east

[skufful]

well I must admit I'm seeing new convection now as the night hours progress.

I'm on the East Coast, and it's not night yet here, and this invest is a good bit east of me.

it shouldn't matter because the sun's heat has been on the decline for a few hours now. so the water surface temp to atmosphere temp should be deviating from each other.

I'll correct myself anyway, I should at least know what direction it gets dark first, duh. Probably is night there now.

[Ivanhater]

What are the steering currents looking like when this is in the western car?

[NONAME]

This new frame show refiring with red.

[windstorm99]

doesnt matter if this develops or not. The deep layer steering will take this to the west. Only difference is in forward speed. A shallow system will move faster, but it is not going to gain latitude even if it were to become a cat 5, not with the steering winds straight out of the east

Sounds ok to me...So what your saying is for us in south florida we dont have to watch this disturbance?

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/2345 UTC 10.4N 48.7W TOO WEAK 99L

30/1745 UTC 9.8N 48.7W TOO WEAK 99L


The latest SDD dvorak data leaves the longitud the same (48.7w) as the afternoon data.Unless the first position was wrong.

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 310028
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070731 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070731  0000   070731  1200   070801  0000   070801  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.2N  49.0W   11.4N  52.4W   12.7N  55.9W   13.7N  59.7W
BAMD    10.2N  49.0W   11.3N  51.8W   12.2N  54.3W   12.7N  57.0W
BAMM    10.2N  49.0W   11.4N  51.6W   12.4N  54.0W   12.9N  56.8W
LBAR    10.2N  49.0W   11.1N  51.7W   12.1N  54.5W   12.8N  57.4W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          29KTS          37KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          29KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070802  0000   070803  0000   070804  0000   070805  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.9N  64.0W   16.9N  73.5W   18.3N  83.0W   19.4N  90.2W
BAMD    13.0N  59.8W   13.4N  65.7W   14.2N  72.0W   15.0N  78.2W
BAMM    13.5N  59.8W   14.4N  66.2W   15.7N  73.5W   16.6N  80.8W
LBAR    13.5N  60.3W   14.0N  66.6W   14.8N  73.1W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        46KTS          64KTS          71KTS          77KTS
DSHP        46KTS          64KTS          71KTS          62KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.2N LONCUR =  49.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =   9.7N LONM12 =  45.7W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =   9.3N LONM24 =  43.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[storms in NC]

doesnt matter if this develops or not. The deep layer steering will take this to the west. Only difference is in forward speed. A shallow system will move faster, but it is not going to gain latitude even if it were to become a cat 5, not with the steering winds straight out of the east

Sounds ok to me...So what your saying is for us in south florida we dont have to watch this disturbance?

I would never say don't watch a disturbance. There is 2 different flow pattern's. There is a split there south of the Island one goes to the WNW and one to the west. so it Can go higher in latitude. But the stronger one is to the West.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[flwxwatcher]

I don't get it. How are the next 4 hours "critical" to this system? How is tonight "now or never" for it to get its act together? Any a y'all ever heard of patience? Yeah, we've got spin. And yes, there is some convection. But should 99L form any time soon, it's as liable to be a fish spinner as it is to survive any trek across the entirety of the Caribbean Sea. That's not usually happening in July or early August although there is limited precedent. Look for the convection to continue on its merry way teasing and screwing with a bunch of you before it becomes anything - if it ever does.

My call.

Steve

Well said.. 99L does have alot of dry air around it. Something to watch but I agree with the thinking slow development if it developes at all..

[NONAME]

What is the Diffrence between DSHP and SHIP because they are different at 120hrs out with DSHP 62kt and SHIP at 77

[cycloneye]

What is the Diffrence between DSHP and SHIP because they are different at 120hrs out with DSHP 62kt and SHIP at 77

DSHP sees interaction with land.