INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[Cyclone1]

Lyons and Cantore said they were both kind of surprised that this wasn't a TD before TD3 was. Lyons said this could likely be a depression tomorrow (24-36hrs).

[Brent]

If that flareup persists, I think it might be a TD soon. Maybe within 24 hours...

It's further north as well.

Dean?

[Normandy]

Its funny yesterday when I was looking at the disturbance the area just ENE of the MLC we were tracking just looked suspect...it gave the wave as a whole a disorganized look...I thought nothing of it...perhaps thats really where the best chance for a LLC to form was.

[Weatherfreak14]

If this keeps it up all night it will possible be a TD soon, first that LLC has to stay in one place under the convection.

[philnyc]

from which obs are you using? The obs from Barbados told something different entirely

Here's the 2007-07-31 00Z sounding from Grantley Adams airport at Barbados:


At 700mb, the air temp is about 10C and the dewpoint -5C. That gives us an RH of 35%. That matches quite well with the ARL chart derived for the area around Barbados at 18Z today from the GFS initialized at 18Z today; here it is:


Regardless of whether the 18Z run used real obs or ones extrapolated from the 12Z run (you could probably tell me which is the case), the ARL charts seem to match what's going on in the atmosphere.
Now here again is the ARL (via GFS) forecast map for the region where 99L and Barbados reside in:



Given all of this, aren't the following true?
1. The current mid-level atmosphere over Barbados is at about 30 to 40% RH.
2. The GFS forecast that is specifically for, and only for, RH levels at 700mb ahead of, and over, Barbados tomorrow at 18Z shows considerable moistening at that level?

[RL3AO]

Considering what they just called TD3 it makes you wonder how much further this needs to go.

[Cyclone1]

Considering what they just called TD3 it makes you wonder how much further this needs to go.

Haha, great point.

[boca]

Looking at 99L I saw the mid level circulation move off to the SW, is it possible to have another mid level circulation where its refiring up?

[Berwick Bay]

Yes, we are often fooled by these systems as they try to take off (many don't make it). But in this case, it looks like this may be the beginning of the "big show". Looks like a "bursting phenomenon tonight, meaning that the pressures are lowering at the surface (as opposed to the set up or Mid Level Circulation) which we had all day. The gain in lat will probably encourage development (further away from ITCZ). Definitely looks to traverse the Carribean. Too early to say if it will be a genuine threat to the US Gulf Coast. Its early in the season and perhaps that ridge will hold and keep it going W to WNW. That might be the best bet at this point. But its just too early to tell. I will bring out a Berwick Model in a day or so as we get a better handle on what looks to be a looming tropical depression.

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

Ivan the red x shows up.

[brunota2003]

Looking at the latest infrared image, I see a nice small ball of convection. My question is, is that banding features trying to form to the west/NW of it or just the way the convection formed? (Dont feel like looking at the loop, tends to take forever to load on my computer)

[Ivanhater]

sorry..fixed!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Disclaimer: This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Consider too that the model runs depict a weak system traversing a very southerly route steadily. If a a more potent system were to spin up at a faster pace than the models are initializing, then we would start to see some divergence in their paths. I think that due to the strong ridge that will be setting up, a path generally to the wnw seems likely to take this into the gulf though, because it should "wrap" around the high that will be settled over the far east coast of florida or over the bahamas, causing the storm to come up into the gulf. Where it goes from there will depend on the location of the high pressure and any possibility of the rumored future texas front making it to the gulf and laying down a protective curtain like the last one did. **IF** this does develop into a storm and survives until it reaches the central carribean, I could see a panhandle hit from it based on where i suspect the high will set up and where I think the trough may be lying within about 7-10 days (speed to landfall will depend heavily on intensity - big storm=faster landfall).
please don't crucify me, I know it is way early and the system isn't formally even a TD yet...just my best guess at this moment based on my guess at the synoptic setup that looks to be developing. --cat 3 quickly on its way down to a 2 at landfall within 200 miles from pensacola to the east is my early call for it.

(let the games begin)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is the system that "could" be fun to track and long lasting. We will see if the convection can keep firing to develop the LLC. I expect Td3 will get Chantal over the next 6 hours...So this will likely be Dean. Dean doe's not sound like a name that would turn into a strong storm.

[Berwick Bay]

Its beautiful isn't it? That blow up will very quickly become the new center (as many of you have already said). Within a very few frames we'll probably not be able to find that old MLC. This looks real.

[Derek Ortt]

Ah, did not see that you had posted a forecast

That said, from the forecast you posted tends to indicate the possibility of a dry air intrusion as it moves through the islands (though this is highly dependent upon the shear and convective pattern)

[Blown Away]

Well the new center is most likely near 11N/48W and moving WNW, IMO. Will have to see how long this persists, I'm not falling into the it's gonna be a TD soon trap this time.

[Weatherfreak14]

showing some real potential tonight, as we got a whole night of convection bursting possible, if it looks ral good could become TD 4 by tommrow at 5pm advisory. i give it a 30% of that happpening and a 50% chance of development on wedesday if this all persists.

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

consider that the model runs depict a weak system traversing a very southerly route steadily. if a a more potent system were to spin up at a faster pace than the models are initializing, then we would start to see some divergence in their paths. i think that due to the strong ridge that will be setting up, a path generally to the wnw seems likely to take this into the gulf though, because it will "wrap" around the high that will be settled over the far east coast fo florida or over the bahamas, causing the storm to come up into the gulf. where it goes from there will depend on the location of the high pressure and any possibility of the rumored future texas front making it to the gulf and laying down a protective curtain like the last one did. **IF** this does develop into a storm and survives until it reaches the central carribean, I could see a panhandle hit from it based on where i suspect the high will set up and where I think the trough may be lying within about 7-10 days (speed to landfall will depend heavily on intensity - big storm=faster landfall).
please don't crucify me, I know it is way early and the system isn't formally even a TD yet...just my best guess at this moment based on my guess at the synoptic setup that looks to be developing. --cat 3 quickly on its way down to a 2 at landfall within 200 miles from pensacola to the east is my early call for it.

(let the games begin)
_____________________________________________________
I would never crucify you Treasure for posting an opinion about where a storm will go. Right now a path to the Yucutan Penninsula is forecast by the models. But like you say, the development of the system (stronger system) may have an impact on that. I too think that the Gulf is definitely in play. Just too early for me to give my Berwick Model yet. But I admire your guts, and I can tell that you've been around this game for awhile.