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Derek Ortt wrote:Ah, did not see that you had posted a forecast
That said, from the forecast you posted tends to indicate the possibility of a dry air intrusion as it moves through the islands (though this is highly dependent upon the shear and convective pattern)
Berwick Bay wrote:consider that the model runs depict a weak system traversing a very southerly route steadily. if a a more potent system were to spin up at a faster pace than the models are initializing, then we would start to see some divergence in their paths. i think that due to the strong ridge that will be setting up, a path generally to the wnw seems likely to take this into the gulf though, because it will "wrap" around the high that will be settled over the far east coast fo florida or over the bahamas, causing the storm to come up into the gulf. where it goes from there will depend on the location of the high pressure and any possibility of the rumored future texas front making it to the gulf and laying down a protective curtain like the last one did. **IF** this does develop into a storm and survives until it reaches the central carribean, I could see a panhandle hit from it based on where i suspect the high will set up and where I think the trough may be lying within about 7-10 days (speed to landfall will depend heavily on intensity - big storm=faster landfall).
please don't crucify me, I know it is way early and the system isn't formally even a TD yet...just my best guess at this moment based on my guess at the synoptic setup that looks to be developing. --cat 3 quickly on its way down to a 2 at landfall within 200 miles from pensacola to the east is my early call for it.
(let the games begin)
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I would never crucify you Treasure for posting an opinion about where a storm will go. Right now a path to the Yucutan Penninsula is forecast by the models. But like you say, the development of the system (stronger system) may have an impact on that. I too think that the Gulf is definitely in play. Just too early for me to give my Berwick Model yet. But I admire your guts, and I can tell that you've been around this game for awhile.
Vigilant wrote:A friend that works at the NWS in San Juan says the center is located 10.2N 49W.
Comments?
Vigilant wrote:A friend that works at the NWS in San Juan says the center is located 10.2N 49W.
Comments?
cycloneye wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.Berwick Bay wrote:consider that the model runs depict a weak system traversing a very southerly route steadily. if a a more potent system were to spin up at a faster pace than the models are initializing, then we would start to see some divergence in their paths. i think that due to the strong ridge that will be setting up, a path generally to the wnw seems likely to take this into the gulf though, because it will "wrap" around the high that will be settled over the far east coast fo florida or over the bahamas, causing the storm to come up into the gulf. where it goes from there will depend on the location of the high pressure and any possibility of the rumored future texas front making it to the gulf and laying down a protective curtain like the last one did. **IF** this does develop into a storm and survives until it reaches the central carribean, I could see a panhandle hit from it based on where i suspect the high will set up and where I think the trough may be lying within about 7-10 days (speed to landfall will depend heavily on intensity - big storm=faster landfall).
please don't crucify me, I know it is way early and the system isn't formally even a TD yet...just my best guess at this moment based on my guess at the synoptic setup that looks to be developing. --cat 3 quickly on its way down to a 2 at landfall within 200 miles from pensacola to the east is my early call for it.
(let the games begin)
_____________________________________________________
I would never crucify you Treasure for posting an opinion about where a storm will go. Right now a path to the Yucutan Penninsula is forecast by the models. But like you say, the development of the system (stronger system) may have an impact on that. I too think that the Gulf is definitely in play. Just too early for me to give my Berwick Model yet. But I admire your guts, and I can tell that you've been around this game for awhile.
I included something that is needed when a forecast is posted and it's our disclaimer.
Ivanhater wrote:what is interesting is if you look at the band infront of the "center" is firing as well...that gives a good indication of the near future...
Vigilant wrote:A friend that works at the NWS in San Juan says the center is located 10.2N 49W.
Comments?
Weatherfreak14 wrote:Ivanhater wrote:what is interesting is if you look at the band infront of the "center" is firing as well...that gives a good indication of the near future...
I guess this means there is some moisture out ahead of it to feed on through the night.
philnyc wrote:Thanks, canetracker!
The water vapor loops most people use are really showing UPPER LEVEL water vapor which has little to do with tropical development. Satellites that measure radiated energy from upper level moisture often "see" only that - the upper levels, because that upper level radiation masks any radiation from the mid and lower level water vapor beneath it. So the energy from the middle and lower levels is never seen.
Since it is water vapor in the middle levels of the troposphere that are critical in helping a developing disturbance or even a strong one to intensify, you need to make sure that the water vapor sat you're looking at is middle level. This season, CIMSS added a really good satellite view of water vapor (I suspect because so many people were mistakenly confusing upper with mid-level). Here's the link:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8wvmid.html
The only unfortunate thing about it is that it still doesn't give you "exact" numbers to make decisions by. That's why I love the ARL REAL system where you can make maps like I did above. Here's the link:
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html
It takes a little practice to use it, but it's totally worth it. For the tropics, I prefer the GFS global model (drop down menu is there). You will visually know what's really going on and what's forecast to happen, rather than have to picture it in your mind.
If there's one thing I'd like to see happen here with all of these discussions, it would be to stop seeing that upper level water vapor chart. If I didn't have anything else, I'd look at it, but why bother when we have these new, better tools?
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Remember how good it looked last night. I would wait 12 hours. If we get data supporting the devleopment of a LLC under the convection. Then we can start calling for a depression. Intill then wait in see.
It would appear to be at about 10N 50.5W and dissipating (or already dissipated) rapidly.Stratosphere747 wrote:Vigilant wrote:A friend that works at the NWS in San Juan says the center is located 10.2N 49W.
Comments?
I could go with that. Could be me, but I can still see the earlier MLC that was racing away from this newly bursting convection. Seems to have slowed down, but not near as defined.
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