Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking good,,,,Lets see if it can keep up developing that LLC.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Quick check at 99L and I think we're well on our way to TD #4 by tomorrow evening.

Agreed, this is actually looking like the best organized system of 2007 so far...we'll see if it can continue as it heads towards the Islands.

Anyone else think we're overdue for a "long tracker?" Frances and Ivan three years ago were the last if I recall that formed east of the Islands...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

96L looked almost as good with a well defined LLC. I would have to give "TD" 3 a nod for being the best looking system of the season. Why because its much bigger then Andrea at her best. In also much more organized with more convection then barry.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

i think we see td 4 today...heat content...low shear...
moisture....

[TexWx]

Looks like this thing is gaining some latitude...

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310919
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND
15 MPH.

[weatherman0518]

thanks Meso for posting that info

[N2FSU]

Looks much better than when I went to bed last night:

[Nimbus]

Convection is firing north of the center and the system looks like it is moving a little slower than reported.

SST's west of its current location are a couple degrees warmer than the system has been seeing so expect some strengthening before the islands.

The future track of the system is worrisome. All three BAM models steer the storm south of Jamaica. The GFS has a monster ridge extending all the way into the GOM in place at that point.

Usually when an established circulation reaches the end of a ridge, it slows forward motion, spins up, and turns north. Forward speed does not appear to be an issue with this storm so I can't see it rolling into Mexico like a tumbleweed. If the ridge forecast is correct it won't make landfall much east of Louisiana either. The big picture is not good but at least the NHC should not have to make many track changes given the clear dynamics.

[N2FSU]

Regarding the ridge building in the Southeast next week, this is from the Tallahassee NWS discussion this morning:

LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON BUILDING A
MONSTER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND NOW KEEPS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL (AND SURFACE) TROUGH OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF
BUILDING A HUGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WOULD BE A MUCH WARMER
AND DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.

[Meso]

Interesting that the intensity models have backed off a lot,the 00z GFDL dissipates the system.

[punkyg]

Maybe the models got more interested in td 3 and most of them stop paying alot of attention to 99L.

[alan1961]

Well our blob is still there this morning and refired up new convection after showing almost a naked swirl overnight, its gained just a touch of latitude also, my guess is its going to find it tough today maintaining its formation and identity, when they start to reform a new centre there is something that causes that and my guess is the proximity to South America could be one thing ( maybe shear ), dry air to the north although it has a good envelope of moisture still, just have this hunch that its going to really struggle today, i hope not because we need something to watch.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing is starting to crank up. Just like TD 3. Its kind of funny how these things do this at the flip of a switch.

[punkyg]

Well our blob is still there this morning and refired up new convection after showing almost a naked swirl overnight, its gained just a touch of latitude also, my guess is its going to find it tough today maintaining its formation and identity, when they start to reform a new centre there is something that causes that and my guess is the proximity to South America could be one thing ( maybe shear ), dry air to the north although it has a good envelope of moisture still, just have this hunch that its going to really struggle today, i hope not because we need something to watch.

If sir 99L don't develop you can still track stupid td 3 that might take the name chantel which i don't want it to take!

[Windtalker2]

Looking very nice this morning. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Not bad, banding seems to be developing.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is likely very close to TD strength. We will see through out today.

[punkyg]

Now all it has to do is survive until tomorrow by then we will have a td.

[alan1961]

Dont want to be a kill joy but i think it looked better yesterday, it has that look of struggle on it today