Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[skysummit]

It looks like convection is now also developing in the southern half of the blob. If this persistance continues, I believe we'll have a TD by 5pm today.

[punkyg]

Hey guys i wasn't paying attention to the dry yesterday, but was there always alot of moist air to the southwest and southeast of 99L and was there always storms ahead of 99L.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[skysummit]

Yes, punky...the air was moist yesterday to the southeast and southwest, but boy it's dry to the north and west of 99L. So far, it has impacted the system much though.

There is also a little SAL just west of the system, but it's all clear once in the Central Caribbean.

***I don't like the idea of the GFS not building the potent ridge next week. This may be becoming more and more of a U.S. threat.

[skysummit]

Anyone know why the 06z tropical models weren't run?

[Chacor]

[Blown Away]

First look this morning, how is not a TD?

[punkyg]

Don't call me evil, but i hope this is able to make it to florida, because
i like being in tropical storms and hurricanes and i haven't been in one since barry dissipate oh how i miss being in a hurricane.

[alan1961]

Dont like this stuff coming off of South America to its south west, that will affect it a little.

[punkyg]

Dont like this stuff coming off of South America to its south west, that will affect it a little.

What stuff? Moist air maybe?

[Evil Jeremy]

Don't call me evil, but i hope this is able to make it to florida, because
i like being in tropical storms and hurricanes and i haven't been in one since barry dissipate oh how i miss being in a hurricane.

I share your wish.

[punkyg]

Don't call me evil, but i hope this is able to make it to florida, because
i like being in tropical storms and hurricanes and i haven't been in one since barry dissipate oh how i miss being in a hurricane.

I share your wish.

YES!

[Toadstool]

A quick look at it this morning, it certainly looks like a viable system right now (certainly better than 98L ever did). We'll have to see how it holds up over the next 48 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

Were probably going to get an "Possible Devlopment over the next day or so" at 11AM.

I am so happy that Hurricane Season is back in motion lol.

[HURAKAN]

Ahh, such a beautiful morning in the Atlantic!!!

[Meso]

If the bands (or what appear to be banding) features continue to wrap around it could get going.Shear is low near it,There is some weak shear increasing just ahead of it,but nothing big,around 15-20kt... but after it overcomes that,shear is low and dropping.But also depends where it moves,there is more shear to the south in the Caribbean,a more northerly track would be pretty shear-free for a while.Models are seeing something in the enviroment that hinders it,well in the 00z runs at least.Possible dry air? But it is not looking bad

[Berwick Bay]

Alan said
Dont want to be a kill joy but i think it looked better yesterday, it has that look of struggle on it today
___________________________________________________
Have to disagree with you there, Alan. Its made quite a bit of progress (organization wise) in the last 24 hours. Remember, it really only "appeared" out of the ITCZ about 36-40 hours or so ago. Yesterday, we saw the first clear signs of Low Pressure spinning (at mid levels). Now we've seen cycles of convection bursting in different areas within the storm (its "seeking" an established low level center) thats why the convection bursting in different areas. Its well on its way now Alan.

[skysummit]

Alan said
Dont want to be a kill joy but i think it looked better yesterday, it has that look of struggle on it today
___________________________________________________
Have to disagree with you there, Alan. Its made quite a bit of progress (organization wise) in the last 24 hours. Remember, it really only "appeared" out of the ITCZ about 36-40 hours or so ago. Yesterday, we saw the first clear signs of Low Pressure spinning (at mid levels). Now we've seen cycles of convection bursting in different areas within the storm (its "seeking" an established low level center) thats why the convection bursting in different areas. Its well on its way now Alan.

Where did Alan say this? It looks MUCH better this morning then it did all day yesterday.

By the way, the 06z GFDL now dissipates it in 12 hours.


456
WHXX04 KWBC 311120
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 50.2 280./14.0
6 10.7 51.5 265./13.2
12 10.9 52.8 280./13.2

STORM DISSIPATED AT 12 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[punkyg]

Alan said
Dont want to be a kill joy but i think it looked better yesterday, it has that look of struggle on it today
___________________________________________________
Have to disagree with you there, Alan. Its made quite a bit of progress (organization wise) in the last 24 hours. Remember, it really only "appeared" out of the ITCZ about 36-40 hours or so ago. Yesterday, we saw the first clear signs of Low Pressure spinning (at mid levels). Now we've seen cycles of convection bursting in different areas within the storm (its "seeking" an established low level center) thats why the convection bursting in different areas. Its well on its way now Alan.

I agree

[storms in NC]

Looks like this thing is gaining some latitude...

It is not unusual for them to gain in latitude for you have (Okay everyone here comes that word) Wobbles. so it can move WNW then back to w I don't think I have ever seen a straight line storm. There been some but I haven't seen one. So you will see it move back and forth JMO

[Windtalker2]

If you compare the area of dry air around the system from yesterday to today, it seems like that area is shrinking. Looks like as the system moves, the air around is moistening up. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html