Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[HURAKAN]

Looks like this thing is gaining some latitude...

It is not unusual for them to gain in latitude for you have (Okay everyone here comes that word) Wobbles. so it can move WNW then back to w I don't think I have ever seen a straight line storm. There been some but I haven't seen one. So you will see it move back and forth JMO

To move in a straight line they most be moving very fast. If the movement is slow or average, meaning 15 mph or less, then you get wobbles. That's more than normal. Also we don't have a clear center of circulacion, so the storm is not exactly "moving" toward one particular direction. Burst of convection sometimes make it look like the storm is moving toward a direction which is not exactly right.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

oh how i miss being in a hurricane.

LOL... Not to get off topic, I too enjoy the way storms shake everything up, and I love the time off work. I hate the misery that follows a bad one. Wilma changed my thought pattern about storms.

99L passed through the same point as Ivan 2004.... Scary thought.

[HURAKAN]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N50W POSSIBLY SPAWNED BY THE RE-LOCATED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WAS LOCATED ABOUT 650 NM E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH A BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN
120-150 NM OF THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Making big progress!!!

[Berwick Bay]

NC spoke about wobbles, which is true. But you know in this case, we're still waiting on that final formation of a low level center. So the storm is "feeling itself out" if you will. Searching within itself for the final location of that center. While its doing that we are prone to say "look its here, no over there" in regards to where a center might be.

[storms in NC]

Looks like this thing is gaining some latitude...

It is not unusual for them to gain in latitude for you have (Okay everyone here comes that word) Wobbles. so it can move WNW then back to w I don't think I have ever seen a straight line storm. There been some but I haven't seen one. So you will see it move back and forth JMO

To move in a straight line they most be moving very fast. If the movement is slow or average, meaning 15 mph or less, then you get wobbles. That's more than normal. Also we don't have a clear center of circulacion, so the storm is not exactly "moving" toward one particular direction. Burst of convection sometimes make it look like the storm is moving toward a direction which is not exactly right.

Thank you that is what I wanted to say.

[stormy70]

oh how i miss being in a hurricane.

LOL... Not to get off topic, I too enjoy the way storms shake everything up, and I love the time off work. I hate the misery that follows a bad one. Wilma changed my thought pattern about storms.

99L passed through the same point as Ivan 2004.... Scary thought.

Oh please don't even mention Ivan.

[alan1961]

still learning Berwick ..thanks for that..just dont want to lose it yet..cheers

[Derek Ortt]

convection on the decline this morning... still looking at slow development if any were to occur at all

As for wanting this to hit Florida... let it hit a Florida that is not in this dimension, but not the one I am in

[Berwick Bay]

Alan, I hope you'll feel free to disagree with me over the next three months. This is shaping up along the lines of the original prognostications, ie a long and difficult hurricane season. Changing the subject just a tad, looking down the road for this system, different scenarios. One is that the ridge builds back in across the GOM keeping this thing moving west to Mexico. For a change, Texas is under High Pressure now, but that might mean a break in the expanding ridge from the Atlantic, with a weakness to be found east of Texas. A lot could still change. With the expanding ridge, the Texas area might find itself at the edge of that expansion with a reversion back to ULL's centered over it, meaning the weakness would then be over Texas. I'm gonna wait a little to try to get a better handle on this. Also will wait for upgrade to depression before getting any more specific.

[punkyg]

convection on the decline this morning... still looking at slow development if any were to occur at all

As for wanting this to hit Florida... let it hit a Florida that is not in this dimension, but not the one I am in

I didn't know you were in florida

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Florida can definitely be target for this. The GFS is already backing off now on the monster ridge over the SE.....

and its already gaining some significant lattitude since yesterday which keeps Florida in the long-term target possibilities.

It's way too early to say......

Nonetheless I am calling for a significant, hurricane possibly a major hurricane near the NW Caribbean here.

[HURAKAN]

WTNT63 KNHC 311213
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007
815 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
40 MPH...65 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHANTAL IS LOCATED ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. CHANTAL IS NOT A
THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

Now it's official, if 99L is named, Dean will be its name.

[punkyg]

Noooooooooooooooooooo i don't like the name Dean that name stinks.
99L i'm sorry, but if you get named i will hate your name.

[skysummit]

I guess that means wxman57 lost his bet saying no other named storm will form in July. LOL

[Blown Away]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N50W POSSIBLY SPAWNED BY THE RE-LOCATED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WAS LOCATED ABOUT 650 NM E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH A BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN
120-150 NM OF THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Making big progress!!!

Is the NHC saying the LLC is near 10/50. All the convection is near 12/50?? If somebody could post a chart w/ the current LLC location it would be greatly appreciated.

[Berwick Bay]

Gatorcane said
Florida can definitely be target for this. The GFS is already backing off now on the monster ridge over the SE.....

It's way to early to say......
___________________________________________________
Could very well be the case Gator. I think your point is that don't automatically expect this to be an early August "low rider" on its way to Mexico. I lot can happen. Like I said, I'm gonna wait before putting out my "Berwick Model". One thing in favor of a Fl hit would be the High Pressure which is now sitting over Texas and western La. (I'm here in SW La.). Boy, for a change, did it get hot yesterday! This summer has been so cool. But if that High gets going over central Texas, then you might look for a weakness further east (maybe the panhandle). Just speculation here, no forecast from me yet.

[drezee]

This is a rat race, but I believe 98L will be classifed first later today..then 99L. So I believe this will be the D storm is named

This will be the C storm and 98L will be the D storm

So....punkyg...how do you like your crow?

[vaffie]

First Dvorak numbers for 99L:

31/0545 UTC 9.7N 49.2W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[storms in NC]

Noooooooooooooooooooo i don't like the name Dean that name stinks.
99L i'm sorry, but if you get named i will hate your name.

Chill have a Popsicle. Just a name

[drezee]

Noooooooooooooooooooo i don't like the name Dean that name stinks.
99L i'm sorry, but if you get named i will hate your name.

Chill have a Popsicle. Just a name

She just didnt want to eat his designated meal...