Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

vacanechaser · #141 Postby **vacanechaser** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:41 am

someone have a link to the latest model garphics on 99L... have lost a link... have the data, but no graphic.... thanx

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#142 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:42 am

skysummit wrote:You know what I find funny? There is a small group of posters who only seem to post when convection has decreased. Where were you guys last night when it was blossoming? Where will you be tonight when the same happens again?

Lol I was thinking the same thing... over the next few hours people will keep writing this off..then people will be posting "new burst starting" then people will be calling times for development...its a funny cycle that happens all the time :lol:

#143 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:43 am

Air Force Met wrote:
dwg71 wrote:it doesnt look good now, lets see how it does over the next day or so. I still give it only a small chance of getting a name.

I'm about to go on 2 weeks of leave. I personally am going to put a hex on it and hope it fizzles into nothingness. It's all fun to track for a lot of people here...but a lot of us get our vacations canceled for storms that threaten the mainland (even when it isn't close to our homes)...and since I am going to Oregon...and have had the trip planned for almost a year...I want a fizzle.

You go and have a great time. Let someone else worry about it. See you when you get back. Good to see you post. I all ways love to read your post. Maybe cause my X was in the AF for 20 years. I loved the AF life. I can say I miss it greatly.
Have fun
Deb

#144 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:43 am

vacanechaser wrote:someone have a link to the latest model garphics on 99L... have lost a link... have the data, but no graphic.... thanx

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Serious???

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_99.gif

boca · #145 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:44 am

If it does fire again it might wait until the 11pm to 1am range tonight just like last night. It also has to make it thru today to get to tonight to refire. Roll the dice folks, come on lucky 7.

'CaneFreak · #146 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:44 am

vacanechaser wrote:someone have a link to the latest model garphics on 99L... have lost a link... have the data, but no graphic.... thanx

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_99.gif

There you go buddy. Hope you are having a spectacular day at work. :wink:

#147 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:45 am

Develops or not, we already got Chantal, Dean can wait.

Extremeweatherguy · #148 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:46 am

The funny thing is that even with less convection than it had 2 hours ago, it still looks better than Chris did as a 35mph TD/40mph TS.

boca · #149 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:46 am

I have to go to work so when I get back this will be a wave or a depression if it fires back tonight.

vacanechaser · #150 Postby **vacanechaser** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:48 am

thanx guys... needed it here at work... somehow it disappeared.. lol.. thanx

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Derek Ortt · #151 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:48 am

shows over folks

if you want to see what a real developing storm looks like... look at the EPAC disturbance near 120W

Time to finish my M.S. Thesis draft by this afternoon

Weatherfreak14 · #152 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:49 am

It looks it trying to hang on to the convection north of the center, maybe this could become the new center and convection will refire here? to early to tell.

chadtm80 · #153 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:49 am

vacanechaser wrote:thanx guys... needed it here at work... somehow it disappeared.. lol.. thanx

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Look here jesse.. http://www.storm2k.org/wx

#154 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:52 am

Derek Ortt wrote:shows over floks

if you want to see what a real developing storm looks like... look at the EPAC disturbance near 120W

Time to finish my M.S. Thesis draft by this afternoon

LOL....I'm making sure to keep this post for future reference. By the way, what are "floks"?

Hyperstorm · #155 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:52 am

skysummit wrote:You know what I find funny? There is a small group of posters who only seem to post when convection has decreased. Where were you guys last night when it was blossoming? Where will you be tonight when the same happens again?

I totally expect convection to increase again at anytime later today and tonight. That would be foolish to think otherwise, especially when you know about the dynamics of tropical weather systems. However, if current trends are any indication, it would not be as pronounced and organized as last night, just as last night wasn't as organized as the previous night. And when I mean "organized", I dont' mean just a round blob of deep convection. I mean an organized structure all around.

We'll just have to wait and see...

Derek Ortt · #156 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:53 am

floks is my pathetic attempt to type folks

#157 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:53 am

shows over? Well I will have to disagree with you....if it doesn't develop into a depression by reaching the caribbean I'd say it is over at least for the next several days.

But I do agree with you the EPAC is where the real action is (as usual) :roll:

stormy70 · #158 Postby **stormy70** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:53 am

Just continue keeping me up to date on what is going on.

#159 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:55 am

Hyperstorm wrote:
skysummit wrote:You know what I find funny? There is a small group of posters who only seem to post when convection has decreased. Where were you guys last night when it was blossoming? Where will you be tonight when the same happens again?

I totally expect convection to increase again at anytime later today and tonight. That would be foolish to think otherwise, especially when you know about the dynamics of tropical weather systems. However, if current trends are any indication, it would not be as pronounced and organized as last night, just as last night wasn't as organized as the previous night. And when I mean "organized", I dont' mean just a round blob of deep convection. I mean an organized structure all around.

We'll just have to wait and see...

I understand where you're coming from, however, how can you say it was less organized last night comparing to the previous night, when last night it was able to develop a defined LLC according to the NHC? Previously, all it had was an MLC.

#160 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:02 am

water vapor imagery shows plenty of moisture has built in out ahead of our system. A member posted moisture readings across Barbados were significantly higher than yesterday. The decrease in convection is temporary and we will see it come back. I'm still thinking Dean is on the way with this one...it's just trying to get its act together.

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