Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[Cyclone1]

shows over? Well I will have to disagree with you....if it doesn't develop into a depression by reaching the caribbean I'd say it is over at least for the next several days.

But I do agree with you the EPAC is where the real action is (as usual)

You all do see the tropical storm east of Massachusetts right? Plenty enough action for me.

[HURAKAN]

31/1145 UTC 10.8N 50.0W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[RL3AO]

I'll take 15 Chantal's and be happy.

[RL3AO]

NM

[x-y-no]

shows over folks

if you want to see what a real developing storm looks like... look at the EPAC disturbance near 120W

Time to finish my M.S. Thesis draft by this afternoon

Huh ... I think that may be a bit premature. I'd agree it isn't going to do much of anything today though, so you're most profitably employed working on your thesis.

If it doesn't fall apart in the next 36 hours or so, then it's getting over some warmer water and might have a shot again, IMHO.

[skysummit]

shows over folks

if you want to see what a real developing storm looks like... look at the EPAC disturbance near 120W

Time to finish my M.S. Thesis draft by this afternoon

Huh ... I think that may be a bit premature. I'd agree it isn't going to do much of anything today though, so you're most profitably employed working on your thesis.

If it doesn't fall apart in the next 36 hours or so, then it's getting over some warmer water and might have a shot again, IMHO.

I agree. As in "shows over", what exactly did you mean? Totally? or in short term? I agree much isn't going to happen today, but I still think slow development is possible...then, when it gets into the Caribbean, all bets are off.

[btangy]

The low level structure looks more diffuse now than 24 hours ago. It appears the low level vorticity is being elongated, which isn't good for development.

[tailgater]

shows over folks

if you want to see what a real developing storm looks like... look at the EPAC disturbance near 120W

Time to finish my M.S. Thesis draft by this afternoon

Where's that PIG that says That's All Folks. guess we can lock this thread now J/K.

[Weatherfreak14]

i think the center is trying to re- establish itself to the north between 13N and 14N. and it looks convection is more ongoing up there than anywhere else. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[dwg71]

You know what I find funny? There is a small group of posters who only seem to post when convection has decreased. Where were you guys last night when it was blossoming? Where will you be tonight when the same happens again?

I was sleeping last night, I wait to pull "all-nighters" when it actually gets a name , not because there is a flair up of thunderstorms around a tropical wave near the ITCZ. There may be a "small group of posters" who seem to take a wait and see approach and not jump on the back of every wave call it the "next big one", or talking about TX/LA landfalls - now that is what if find funny!

Everyone has their style of monitoring storms, to each his own.

[MGC]

99L is having a rather difficult time with dry air. Odds are falling that it will be named...MGC

[Blown Away]

i think the center is trying to re- establish itself to the north between 13N and 14N. and it looks convection is more ongoing up there than anywhere else. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

As much as I would like to agree w/ you, I think it's over.

[Weatherfreak14]

i think the center is trying to re- establish itself to the north between 13N and 14N. and it looks convection is more ongoing up there than anywhere else. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

As much as I would like to agree w/ you, I think it's over.

I still think that this has something left in it everything ahead of it is favorble for development, just patience is needed. it isnt dead, just asleep. but we will have to wait and see.

[skysummit]

You know what I find funny? There is a small group of posters who only seem to post when convection has decreased. Where were you guys last night when it was blossoming? Where will you be tonight when the same happens again?

I was sleeping last night, I wait to pull "all-nighters" when it actually gets a name , not because there is a flair up of thunderstorms around a tropical wave near the ITCZ. There may be a "small group of posters" who seem to take a wait and see approach and not jump on the back of every wave call it the "next big one", or talking about TX/LA landfalls - now that is what if find funny!

Everyone has their style of monitoring storms, to each his own.

Understood, but hopefully you're not insinuating me talking about TX/LA landfalls because nothing like that has ever come from me. By the way, I work day and night so with the laptop by my side at all times, it's easy for me to stay logged on.

[miamicanes177]

Everyone please listen to the NHC. People make comments on message boards all the time, and it's best to listen to the NHC. The latest TWO says it is organizing and could become a depression.

[skysummit]

Everyone please listen to the NHC. People make comments on message boards all the time, and it's best to listen to the NHC. The latest TWO says it is organizing and could become a depression.

One of the best posts in quite some time.

['CaneFreak]

For those of you who think its fighting dry air, you might want to take a look at this map. This is a loop of the precipable water in the atmosphere down in the tropics. You can see there is a nice moist bubble surrounding our fledgling 99L. Now, will everyone please stop saying that it is fighting dry air? Thanks. The dry air is well to the north and yes the environment ahead of this system is moistening up.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t48hrs.gif

[Derek Ortt]

and the latest data is so obvious that the situation has changed since 5:30 that by saying this is organizing, IMO, one has their heads 10 feet in the sand. Chantal is a developing storm, this is not

[Extremeweatherguy]

You know what I find funny? There is a small group of posters who only seem to post when convection has decreased. Where were you guys last night when it was blossoming? Where will you be tonight when the same happens again?

I was sleeping last night, I wait to pull "all-nighters" when it actually gets a name , not because there is a flair up of thunderstorms around a tropical wave near the ITCZ. There may be a "small group of posters" who seem to take a wait and see approach and not jump on the back of every wave call it the "next big one", or talking about TX/LA landfalls - now that is what if find funny!

Everyone has their style of monitoring storms, to each his own.

A few things...

A. This is a bit more than just a "wave". According to the NHC there is a LLC and this could possibly become a depression over the next 48 hours.

B. No one on this board has called for a TX/LA landfall. The only thing that has been said is that the building ridge would favor a more westward track into Mexico or up into the GOM instead of the storm recurving or hitting the SE United States.

C. Very few people have suggested this will become the "next big one" (and skysummit is not one of them). It is really too early to make calls like that.

[Weatherfreak14]

Plus when i Said "the next big one" a couple days back, i didnt mean that by strengh, i meant it by something to watch and i think it holds true as this is a "big" storm to track.