Low Developing Off Wilmington?

'CaneFreak · #1 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:00 pm

Aric Dunn and I just got to talking about some of the surface observations coming out of Wilmington this evening and it appears that we now have a low pressure forming off of the Southeast cost of North Carolina just east of the Wilmington area. It appears that the GFS is giving this system the chance to develop as well over the next 24-48 hours. Comments?

Cyclone1 · #2 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:02 pm

The CMC predicted a low to form so a few days ago, so I think it's plausible.

cpdaman · #3 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:30 pm

deep convection to the sw around 32 78

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

Cyclone1 · #4 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:32 pm

Chris_in_Tampa · #5 Postby **Chris_in_Tampa** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:37 pm

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/
I like this site because it lists pressures and the lines. (still nice to look at a line in addition to the graphics at other sites)

7/31 0Z run:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

Just GFS 7/31 0Z run:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

Just out within last couple minutes.

#6 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:44 pm

It should be associated with that front passing through...I remember just a few days ago the NWS Newport AFD talking about a low forming and running up the coast...then the front stalls in the coastal waters, drifts north before finally washing out.

YouTube · #7 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:01 am

GFS really cranks it up as it too lifts out following TD3. The sub-tropics really want to develop one after the other. What ever happened to goold ole Cape Verde/deep tropics development? At least it won't be like Alex in 2004- Outer Banks got toasted on that one! I guess we could see quite an active week ahead....

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #8 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:03 am

To unfavorable over the tropical Atlatnic. But I would watch 99L to become at least a weak system. But this is also interesting.

Bane · #9 Postby **Bane** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:04 am

looks like it would be extratropical.

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:18 am

Maybe it will turn up into nothing but still catches anyone's attention.

#11 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:42 am

It is just a front that came off the coast. I don't think any thing will happen there.

weatherwoman · #12 Postby **weatherwoman** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:52 am

we sure had some heavey rain here in Morehead City this am felt so tropical! What an exciting time of year.

cpdaman · #13 Postby **cpdaman** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:38 am

looks like a low pressure around 29.78 100 miles off wilmington coast

seems rather large and extra tropical maybe it will send some waves to S. new england for my vacation starting thursday

http://www.weatherunderground.com/satel ... 1k/US.html

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:42 am

It may not turn up into anything, but I think it looks so impressive in the satellite images that the NHC will mention it in the TWO @ 11:30 AM.

#15 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:46 am

Could we get a third crazy east coast spin-up storm. That would be different.

Cyclone1 · #16 Postby **Cyclone1** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:04 am

This reminds me of the precursor to Beryl a lot.

Weatherfreak14 · #17 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:24 am

It does look mighty impressive, those storms rolled through here yesterday eve and killed a guy because he got struck by lightning.

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:27 am

Latest!!!

Chris_in_Tampa · #19 Postby **Chris_in_Tampa** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:32 am

A nice visible image loop, thought it is not all on the image:
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/

Visible > Loop-big

Then click CLT or BWI

#20 Postby **brunota2003** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:00 am

Adding to my post from yesterday is todays AFD:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1040 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOW ON FRONT WILL DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY TODAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADD 20 POPS INTO AFTN E OF COASTAL PLAINS. WDSPRD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG S COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING S BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER NRN SECTIONS AND CANNOT RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. MAIN DEEP MSTR AND LIFT
WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BUT LAST OF SHRT WVS AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITH NE FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH TRIGGER WITH HEATING AND DEW POINTS
IN LOWER 70S. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS.

Low Developing Off Wilmington?

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