Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
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- 'CaneFreak
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- Meso
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It was looking better when NHC released their last statement on it. But it doesn't look as good now..Of course convection could always start up again as these waves do pulsate.Wouldn't write it off,but it simply doesn't look as good as it did a while ago.I don't expect to see anything about it being better organized at the 11:30,maybe "has not become better organized" or "Has become less organized",but there is definitely still future potential.Remember the intensity models did back down a lot lately with it though.. But just wait and see what the NHC says.
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- skysummit
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
I posted last night that convection will have diminished by 10am CDT (my time
) today. It is a lot less orgnanized than what it was at 5am today. Let's see what the NHC says in a few.

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- wxman57
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
I do agree with Derek that 99L is NOT developing now/today. The mid-level spin is not as well defined as yesterday. I didn't really expect that it could become a TD/TS before moving across the Caribbean later this week, so no big surprise nothing is happening yet. I think there's a fair chance it could develop once it approaches the central Caribbean in 3-4 days. Until then, it'll be a slow process of pulsating thunderstorms. I did raise my development chances estimate from 20% to 40% this morning, but that's still a better-than-not chance it will remain a wave. probably won't qualify for recon tomorrow, but I wouldn't rule out recon going out for a peek at it before it reaches the islands.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
Is the convection to the south of 99L apart of it or is it apart of the ITCZ.
Is the convection to the south of 99L apart of it or is it apart of the ITCZ.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
wxman57 wrote:I do agree with Derek that 99L is NOT developing now/today. The mid-level spin is not as well defined as yesterday. I didn't really expect that it could become a TD/TS before moving across the Caribbean later this week, so no big surprise nothing is happening yet. I think there's a fair chance it could develop once it approaches the central Caribbean in 3-4 days. Until then, it'll be a slow process of pulsating thunderstorms. I did raise my development chances estimate from 20% to 40% this morning, but that's still a better-than-not chance it will remain a wave. probably won't qualify for recon tomorrow, but I wouldn't rule out recon going out for a peek at it before it reaches the islands.
well 40% is HUGE in the tropics...yesterday afternoon it was void of any convection and the mid level center was dying...same is happening now...your right ...it will pulse for the next day or 2 before anything really gets going
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re:
punkyg wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
Is the convection to the south of 99L apart of it or is it apart of the ITCZ.
It is a combination of part of the outflow boundary off of South America interacting with the ITCZ if I am not mistaken.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
11:30am TWO...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re:
Meso wrote:It was looking better when NHC released their last statement on it. But it doesn't look as good now..Of course convection could always start up again as these waves do pulsate.Wouldn't write it off,but it simply doesn't look as good as it did a while ago.I don't expect to see anything about it being better organized at the 11:30,maybe "has not become better organized" or "Has become less organized",but there is definitely still future potential.Remember the intensity models did back down a lot lately with it though.. But just wait and see what the NHC says.
Extremeweatherguy wrote:11:30am TWO...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
Meso, you hit the nail right on the head.

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Re: Re:
storms in NC wrote:Air Force Met wrote:dwg71 wrote:it doesnt look good now, lets see how it does over the next day or so. I still give it only a small chance of getting a name.
I'm about to go on 2 weeks of leave. I personally am going to put a hex on it and hope it fizzles into nothingness. It's all fun to track for a lot of people here...but a lot of us get our vacations canceled for storms that threaten the mainland (even when it isn't close to our homes)...and since I am going to Oregon...and have had the trip planned for almost a year...I want a fizzle.
You go and have a great time. Let someone else worry about it. See you when you get back. Good to see you post. I all ways love to read your post. Maybe cause my X was in the AF for 20 years. I loved the AF life. I can say I miss it greatly.
Have fun
Deb
Thanks. I plan on having fun...but RHIR...and if things get spun up...leaves get CANX.

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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
Extremeweatherguy wrote:11:30am TWO...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
Obviously it still has that potential. There are so many people that overexaggerate(sp?) everything that happens..."wow a new flare up! its gonna be dean for sure!"...then the next morning, "the convection is dieing. Well its done...maybe next time" then it goes the other way...it is totally normal for it to pulse
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- wxman57
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
Ivanhater wrote:wxman57 wrote:I do agree with Derek that 99L is NOT developing now/today. The mid-level spin is not as well defined as yesterday. I didn't really expect that it could become a TD/TS before moving across the Caribbean later this week, so no big surprise nothing is happening yet. I think there's a fair chance it could develop once it approaches the central Caribbean in 3-4 days. Until then, it'll be a slow process of pulsating thunderstorms. I did raise my development chances estimate from 20% to 40% this morning, but that's still a better-than-not chance it will remain a wave. probably won't qualify for recon tomorrow, but I wouldn't rule out recon going out for a peek at it before it reaches the islands.
well 40% is HUGE in the tropics...yesterday afternoon it was void of any convection and the mid level center was dying...same is happening now...your right ...it will pulse for the next day or 2 before anything really gets going
Perhaps I'm being a bit generous with 40%. For the typical easterly wave, the chance of development is in the 10-15% range. More precisely, though, about 10-15% of such waves develop each season (or so we're told). But chances of development vary with the season. Early-season waves have a much lower than 10-15% shot at developing. Peak season waves have a much greater shot at developing. Could be something like 2-5% early season and 30 or 40% August/September. A wave with a mid-level spin would have a greater chance of developing than one without any rotation. And we are moving into August, so average chances for development go up. I don't see any significant negatives for development over the coming week. So, I don't know, 40% may be ok. Huge compred to a June wave, average or a bit more than average for an August wave.
Persistence is the key. It needs persistent convection for an LLC to develop. Hasn't happened yet, not happening today. The real trial period will be the next day or two. Could easily go "POOF" like the wave ahead of it. What? Don't see that one? It's just south of eastern Cuba. We've tracked it from Africa. Completely free of convection all across the Caribbean. Perhaps it sacrificed its moisture for 99L.

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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
Joe Bastardi again thinks this likely doesn't survive, mainly due to reduced convergence and increased shear due strong LL Easterlies in Caribbean due to semi-permanent Colombian heat low and its low latitude, and even if it develops, he thinks it is more a threat to Central America than the US.
(From PPV web site)
(From PPV web site)
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- wxman57
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Joe Bastardi again thinks this likely doesn't survive, mainly due to reduced convergence and increased shear due strong LL Easterlies in Caribbean due to semi-permanent Colombian heat low and its low latitude, and even if it develops, he thinks it is more a threat to Central America than the US.
(From PPV web site)
I guess I can't disagree with him too much. There is a reason (lack of convergence for one) that the wave ahead of 99L has been free of convection since reaching the eastern Caribbean. But, on the bright side, maybe I can get more biking in before the season really gets going.

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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
If Bastardi doesn't think it will develop then it's time to focus
on the thing closer to home in the GOM.
on the thing closer to home in the GOM.
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Code: Select all
000
NOUS42 KNHC 311530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 31 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-069
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1800Z A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 01/1530Z C. 02/1000Z
D. 13.0N 57.0W D. 13.5N 61.5W
E. 01/1700Z TO 01/2200Z E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.
II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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- Weatherfreak14
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3
Weatherfreak14 wrote:so they are going to fly into it today?
Tomorrow.
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