Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

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HURAKAN
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#181 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:47 am

Right now there is nothing else to do but to wait and see.
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#182 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:47 am

Everyone take a deep breath with me. Breathe in, NOW EXHALE. Wow, dont you feel better?
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#183 Postby Meso » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:48 am

It was looking better when NHC released their last statement on it. But it doesn't look as good now..Of course convection could always start up again as these waves do pulsate.Wouldn't write it off,but it simply doesn't look as good as it did a while ago.I don't expect to see anything about it being better organized at the 11:30,maybe "has not become better organized" or "Has become less organized",but there is definitely still future potential.Remember the intensity models did back down a lot lately with it though.. But just wait and see what the NHC says.
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#184 Postby Fego » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:52 am

Who want to play? I play "wait", so... who play "see"?

"If we wait, it will develope" :D :lol:
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#185 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:54 am

I posted last night that convection will have diminished by 10am CDT (my time :) ) today. It is a lot less orgnanized than what it was at 5am today. Let's see what the NHC says in a few.
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#186 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:55 am

I do agree with Derek that 99L is NOT developing now/today. The mid-level spin is not as well defined as yesterday. I didn't really expect that it could become a TD/TS before moving across the Caribbean later this week, so no big surprise nothing is happening yet. I think there's a fair chance it could develop once it approaches the central Caribbean in 3-4 days. Until then, it'll be a slow process of pulsating thunderstorms. I did raise my development chances estimate from 20% to 40% this morning, but that's still a better-than-not chance it will remain a wave. probably won't qualify for recon tomorrow, but I wouldn't rule out recon going out for a peek at it before it reaches the islands.
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#187 Postby punkyg » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:57 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Is the convection to the south of 99L apart of it or is it apart of the ITCZ.
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#188 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:58 am

wxman57 wrote:I do agree with Derek that 99L is NOT developing now/today. The mid-level spin is not as well defined as yesterday. I didn't really expect that it could become a TD/TS before moving across the Caribbean later this week, so no big surprise nothing is happening yet. I think there's a fair chance it could develop once it approaches the central Caribbean in 3-4 days. Until then, it'll be a slow process of pulsating thunderstorms. I did raise my development chances estimate from 20% to 40% this morning, but that's still a better-than-not chance it will remain a wave. probably won't qualify for recon tomorrow, but I wouldn't rule out recon going out for a peek at it before it reaches the islands.


well 40% is HUGE in the tropics...yesterday afternoon it was void of any convection and the mid level center was dying...same is happening now...your right ...it will pulse for the next day or 2 before anything really gets going
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Re:

#189 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:01 am

punkyg wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Is the convection to the south of 99L apart of it or is it apart of the ITCZ.


It is a combination of part of the outflow boundary off of South America interacting with the ITCZ if I am not mistaken.
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#190 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:05 am

11:30am TWO...


A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#191 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:08 am

Meso wrote:It was looking better when NHC released their last statement on it. But it doesn't look as good now..Of course convection could always start up again as these waves do pulsate.Wouldn't write it off,but it simply doesn't look as good as it did a while ago.I don't expect to see anything about it being better organized at the 11:30,maybe "has not become better organized" or "Has become less organized",but there is definitely still future potential.Remember the intensity models did back down a lot lately with it though.. But just wait and see what the NHC says.

Extremeweatherguy wrote:11:30am TWO...


A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.


Meso, you hit the nail right on the head. :wink:
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Re: Re:

#192 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:09 am

storms in NC wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
dwg71 wrote:it doesnt look good now, lets see how it does over the next day or so. I still give it only a small chance of getting a name.


I'm about to go on 2 weeks of leave. I personally am going to put a hex on it and hope it fizzles into nothingness. It's all fun to track for a lot of people here...but a lot of us get our vacations canceled for storms that threaten the mainland (even when it isn't close to our homes)...and since I am going to Oregon...and have had the trip planned for almost a year...I want a fizzle.


You go and have a great time. Let someone else worry about it. See you when you get back. Good to see you post. I all ways love to read your post. Maybe cause my X was in the AF for 20 years. I loved the AF life. I can say I miss it greatly.
Have fun
Deb


Thanks. I plan on having fun...but RHIR...and if things get spun up...leaves get CANX. :lol:
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#193 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:12 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:11:30am TWO...


A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Obviously it still has that potential. There are so many people that overexaggerate(sp?) everything that happens..."wow a new flare up! its gonna be dean for sure!"...then the next morning, "the convection is dieing. Well its done...maybe next time" then it goes the other way...it is totally normal for it to pulse
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#194 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:17 am

Ivanhater wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I do agree with Derek that 99L is NOT developing now/today. The mid-level spin is not as well defined as yesterday. I didn't really expect that it could become a TD/TS before moving across the Caribbean later this week, so no big surprise nothing is happening yet. I think there's a fair chance it could develop once it approaches the central Caribbean in 3-4 days. Until then, it'll be a slow process of pulsating thunderstorms. I did raise my development chances estimate from 20% to 40% this morning, but that's still a better-than-not chance it will remain a wave. probably won't qualify for recon tomorrow, but I wouldn't rule out recon going out for a peek at it before it reaches the islands.


well 40% is HUGE in the tropics...yesterday afternoon it was void of any convection and the mid level center was dying...same is happening now...your right ...it will pulse for the next day or 2 before anything really gets going


Perhaps I'm being a bit generous with 40%. For the typical easterly wave, the chance of development is in the 10-15% range. More precisely, though, about 10-15% of such waves develop each season (or so we're told). But chances of development vary with the season. Early-season waves have a much lower than 10-15% shot at developing. Peak season waves have a much greater shot at developing. Could be something like 2-5% early season and 30 or 40% August/September. A wave with a mid-level spin would have a greater chance of developing than one without any rotation. And we are moving into August, so average chances for development go up. I don't see any significant negatives for development over the coming week. So, I don't know, 40% may be ok. Huge compred to a June wave, average or a bit more than average for an August wave.

Persistence is the key. It needs persistent convection for an LLC to develop. Hasn't happened yet, not happening today. The real trial period will be the next day or two. Could easily go "POOF" like the wave ahead of it. What? Don't see that one? It's just south of eastern Cuba. We've tracked it from Africa. Completely free of convection all across the Caribbean. Perhaps it sacrificed its moisture for 99L. ;-)
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#195 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:18 am

Joe Bastardi again thinks this likely doesn't survive, mainly due to reduced convergence and increased shear due strong LL Easterlies in Caribbean due to semi-permanent Colombian heat low and its low latitude, and even if it develops, he thinks it is more a threat to Central America than the US.

(From PPV web site)
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#196 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:25 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Joe Bastardi again thinks this likely doesn't survive, mainly due to reduced convergence and increased shear due strong LL Easterlies in Caribbean due to semi-permanent Colombian heat low and its low latitude, and even if it develops, he thinks it is more a threat to Central America than the US.

(From PPV web site)


I guess I can't disagree with him too much. There is a reason (lack of convergence for one) that the wave ahead of 99L has been free of convection since reaching the eastern Caribbean. But, on the bright side, maybe I can get more biking in before the season really gets going. ;-)
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#197 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:37 am

If Bastardi doesn't think it will develop then it's time to focus
on the thing closer to home in the GOM.
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#198 Postby Chacor » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:38 am

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 31 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2007
         TCPOD NUMBER.....07-069

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
      FLIGHT ONE                 FLIGHT TWO
      A. 01/1800Z                A. 02/1200Z
      B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST      B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
      C. 01/1530Z                C. 02/1000Z
      D. 13.0N 57.0W             D. 13.5N 61.5W
      E. 01/1700Z TO 01/2200Z    E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1600Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

   2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
                         JWP
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#199 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:40 am

so they are going to fly into it today?
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#200 Postby Chacor » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:41 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:so they are going to fly into it today?


Tomorrow.
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